-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
582
FXUS61 KCLE 260558
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
158 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will build over the area through this morning. A
low pressure system will target the area for tonight into
Monday and a stronger cold front will cross the region by Monday
evening.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7:50 PM Update:
Showers and storms have exited. Made minor POP adjustments to
reflect that and made adjustments to hourly temps/dews based on
current observations. Main concern overnight will be potential
for some fog development, especially where it stormed earlier
this evening, leaving small temperature and dew point spreads.
Main concern will be from Crawford County PA down into Trumbull,
Mahoning, and Portage Counties in Northeast OH...though could
see some patchy fog spread into surrounding counties as well.

Valid Portions of Previous Discussion...
A cold front will move through tonight with high pressure
immediately behind it that will settle in through the first part
of Sunday. Skies will generally clear but some high clouds may
roam about. Where clear conditions persist and where it rained
today, there will be some light fog potential but nothing
widespread, dense. Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s. Highs
on Sunday will be in the 80s with mid-high clouds filtering in.

For Sunday afternoon and night, a low pressure system will
approach the region and there is potential for multiple rounds
of showers and thunderstorms, but confidence is low at this time
on the overall setup, especially with storm timing and strength,
as it will be largely dependent on upstream development tonight
into tomorrow. Overall, there appears to be some consensus on a
line of showers and storms moving into the region tomorrow
afternoon and evening, but these storms will be on a decaying
trend as they will be entering a more dry and stable environment
with the high pressure system to the north. Therefore, these
storms will be running out of steam and may not even make it to
Findlay, or if they do, they may lack a bite to them. Another
round of storms should develop closer to the low and move toward
the area during the overnight hours on Sunday night. Again,
these storms may be entering into a more marginally supportive
environment and at a time that would be less diurnally
favorable. There seems to be better consensus that there would
be at least some rain moving through the region Sunday night.
However, both phases require more identification on features
that develop tonight into tomorrow to have more confidence at
this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Surface low pressure will move across the Great Lakes region while
dragging a cold front eastward across Northern Ohio on Monday.
Widespread showers with scattered thunderstorms will move across the
region Sunday night through the day Monday. Can`t rule out an
isolated strong to severe storm along and east of I-71 where MLCAPE
values approach the 1000-1500 J/kg range accompanied by 0-6km bulk
shear between 25-30 knots. As such, the Storm Prediction Center has
a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for severe weather across the eastern
two-thirds of our forecast area in their Day 3 Severe Weather
Outlook. In addition to strong to severe storms on Monday, there is
the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flooding with any
training storms. Layer PWATs rise into the 1.5-1.75 inch range which
is above the 75th percentile when compared to KPIT sounding
climatology.

The bulk of the showers and storms will exit to the east Monday
night as the front exits our area. A reinforcing cold front will
swing southeast during the day Tuesday. The upper trough will
circulate overhead through the short term period with multiple
shortwave disturbances moving across the Ohio Valley. This will
allow for unsettled weather with multiple rounds of showers and
storms to persist into the middle of the week.

High temperatures in the mid to upper 70s ahead of the cold front on
Monday. Overnight lows Monday night settle in the lower 50s Monday
night. Slightly cooler on Tuesday with highs in the mid 60s to near
70 degrees with overnight lows in the upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The upper trough will continue to pivot overhead with another
shortwave swinging southeastward across the region on Wednesday.
High pressure will build overhead from the west and allow for the
upper trough to exit east. This high will remain overhead through
the end of the long term period and will give way to a few days of
dry weather. Temperatures through the long term will gradually
climb, starting with highs in the low/mid 70s Tuesday ending in the
low/mid 80s Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
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Patchy fog has begun to develop east of KCLE to KCAK and expect
fog to expand for the rest of the overnight hours through right
around sunrise. Fog will generally remain confined to areas
that received precipitation on Saturday. Have IFR fog in the
TAFs at KCAK and KYNG, however there will likely be a period of
LIFR conditions at these terminals. KERI is still a bit tricky
since fog will likely sneak into at least inland Erie County PA
and possibly develop over Lake Erie, but there`s still some
uncertainty in how far north and south the fog reaches. It`s
possible that KERI largely remains at VFR/MVFR with a brief
period of IFR near sunrise. Relative humidity values may be high
enough for a brief period of MVFR fog at KCLE/KMFD, although
the likelihood is too low to include in the TAF. Fog will
quickly dissipate when daytime mixing develops shortly after
sunrise.

A line of showers and thunderstorms will lift northeast into
the area late this afternoon or early this evening (~21Z) and
reach NW PA before Midnight. Maintained VCTS/TEMPO TSRA in the
TAFs for now since there`s still some uncertainty in timing and
coverage. Can`t rule out a few stronger gusts mainly at
KTOL/KFDY, but will leave any strong gusts out of the TAF until
confidence increases. There will likely be a brief break in
precipitation before the next round of showers/storms begin to
lift into the area towards the very end of the TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms
late Sunday night into Monday. Periodic Non-VFR conditions may
persist in scattered showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday and
Wednesday.
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&&

.MARINE...
High pressure briefly builds overhead behind the passing cold front
overnight tonight through early Sunday. Low pressure centered over
the Great Plains moves northeast toward the Eastern Great Lakes. As
this system enters the region, it will lift a warm front north
across Lake Erie on Sunday night followed by a cold front during the
day Monday.

Generally light northwest winds tonight turn east while increasing
to 10-15 knots by Sunday afternoon. As the warm front lifts north,
winds become southerly at 15-20 knots Monday morning then westerly
behind the cold front by Monday evening. Generally westerly winds at
15-20 knots will persist through Wednesday before high pressure
builds overhead from the north and shifts winds northerly at 10-15
knots. As the high continues to build overhead, expect for wind
speeds to decrease below 10 knots through the end of the week.

Still keeping an eye on a potential small craft advisory issuance
Monday night into Tuesday as wave heights will build to 3-6 feet at
nearshore zones east of The Islands. As winds shift onshore
Wednesday into Thursday, there may be an increased likelihood for
rip currents.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Sefcovic/Sullivan
SHORT TERM...Iverson
LONG TERM...Iverson
AVIATION...Maines
MARINE...Iverson