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814
FXUS62 KFFC 031846
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
246 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 204 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Region of diffluent flow is parked over the CWA as we are caught at
the edge of subtropical ridge to our southwest and deepening ridge
to our north. Southerly flow at the surface has allowed for moisture
to continue to return to the area with dewpoints rising well into
the mid to upper 60s. Airmass storms will be possible through most
of the short term period. While there will be some diurnal component
to this, with best chances during the afternoon/evening hours each
day, moisture quality will remain high enough overnight to allow for
continued development, especially with any outflow or weak impulses
that move by the area. Given the weak upper level flow, impulses in
this sense will likely be vortmax created by MCS systems to the
west, of which one is currently ongoing in eastern OK.

Severe weather is not expected, but can`t rule out a storm or two
going up big enough and collapse hard enough to do a little wind
damage. Shear is very low over Georgia and will remain that way
through forecast period, generally < 20 kts 0-6km. Mid levels and
upper levels are relatively warm but dry, so CAPE values are
relatively skinny at ~1000 J/kg and updrafts may struggle with some
dry air entrainment.


Lusk
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&&

.LONG TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 204 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

At a glance:

    - Daily rain chances

    - Return to slightly above average warmth

As we enter the extended range on Wednesday, low-amplitude mid-level
ridging overspreads much of the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface,
the Southeast sits on the far western periphery of a surface high,
within a relative weakness in presiding flow. A shortwave
disturbance and associated moisture maxima approaching from the west
will support the development of mostly diurnally-driven convection
during the afternoon Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible, but in the absence of organizational
kinematics, not expecting much in the way of severe weather chances.
The entirety of the state is outlined by SPC`s General Thunder risk
for Day 3, supportive of an isolated strong storm.

Beyond Wednesday, a mid-level ridge sets up across the Desert
Southwest, positioning the Deep South under a regime of
northwesterly flow that carries through the remainder of the long-
term period. As is characteristic of this flow pattern, low-end
chance PoPs (30-50%) will develop each day. With moist southwesterly
flow off of the Gulf of Mexico -- and PWATs >1.5" each day -- the
atmosphere will be primed for efficient rainfall and quick
recovery between rounds of convection. Forecast multi-day
(Wednesday through Friday) rainfall totals across north and
central Georgia currently stand between a tenth and three-quarters
of an inch, but these values may be exceeded in areas that
experience stronger, longer- lived, or slower-moving storms. For
now, it looks like the best chances for more quasi-organized
thunderstorms will come overnight Wednesday into Thursday, aided
by a pre-frontal trough. Even so, any weak disturbances traversing
our mid-level flow could serve as a catalyst to nudge any
discrete cells into more long-lived clusters that persist beyond
the loss of afternoon heating. Per SPC, and corroborated by taking
a dive into ensemble guidance, predictability is too low at this
range to pin down any clear signals for widespread severe weather.
The most probable outcome appears to be an isolated strong to
marginally severe storm (typical as we move into a more summertime
pattern driven by instability as opposed to wind shear) capable
of producing gusty to damaging winds and nuisance flooding if
storm motions are slow.

Rain and storm chances then look to taper off for a majority of the
weekend as a drier airmass settles in in the wake of a cold frontal
passage. However, chances for isolated airmass/diurnally-driven
afternoon thunderstorms will return Sunday into Monday. Highs will
be in the mid-80s to lower-90s each day, with lows in the 60s to
lower-70s.


96
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&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 143 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

VFR to start TAF period. Airmass storms are beginning to develop
and may impact TAF sites through the rest of the afternoon and
evening. Challenge is overnight, where conditions may allow for
continued development of TSRA into morning hours. However, if TSRA
does not develop, rainfall from day could help produce low
cigs/vsbys across airport. Given uncertainty, have wrapped low
cig/vsby chances and TSRA chances into PROB30 in morning hours.
Winds will be from SW through period and relatively light, 4-8
kts, going calm overnight, then picking up a little stronger
Tuesday at 5-10 kts.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium convective timing, low morning cigs/vsby vs convection (see
above).

Lusk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Athens          66  84  66  86 /  40  70  60  70
Atlanta         68  84  69  87 /  40  70  60  60
Blairsville     61  78  63  79 /  30  70  70  90
Cartersville    66  85  67  87 /  40  70  60  70
Columbus        70  89  69  90 /  30  60  50  40
Gainesville     66  82  67  84 /  40  70  60  80
Macon           68  87  69  89 /  20  60  60  50
Rome            67  85  68  86 /  40  70  60  80
Peachtree City  66  85  67  88 /  40  70  60  50
Vidalia         69  90  70  91 /  20  60  50  60
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&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lusk
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...Lusk