-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
305
FXUS62 KFFC 020601
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
201 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 203 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

At a glance:

    - Dreary weekend ahead

    - Slightly unseasonably cool

Looking aloft, a mid-level shortwave trough making its way across
the Deep South and Southeast will serve as the catalyst for
lingering chance (40-50%) PoPs through the weekend. Showers were
slow to spread across the state line this morning, due in part to
dry dewpoints (in the 40s to 50s) across the majority of the
forecast area -- this morning`s 01/12Z sounding`s surface dewpoint
of 54F is at approximately the 25th percentile per the SPC Sounding
Climatology. At any rate, expect coverage to remain fairly patchy
and sparse through the afternoon, with less than a tenth of an inch
of rainfall forecast to fall anywhere within the CWA. North and
central Georgia are contained within SPC`s General Thunder outlook,
so cannot rule out an isolated embedded thunderstorm. However,
meaningful destabilization is unlikely due to the thicker shield
of clouds accompanying the push of moisture. Highs today will be
slightly cool for early June, especially across western Georgia,
in the lower-70s (west of I-85) to 80s (east of I-85).

Overnight, expect another wave of showers and light rain associated
with the mid-level trough axis to move northward and eastward across
the midsection of the state. Coverage is likely to be higher
(relatively) when compared with today`s activity, but still not
likely to exceed a quarter of an inch of rainfall. Lows tonight
look to drop into the upper-50s to 60s.

When the aforementioned wave of showers begins to taper off around
daybreak, a brief lull is expected until rain chances return --
again -- for the afternoon. The entire state is blanketed in General
Thunder chances for tomorrow, and with more breaks in cloud cover
and thus instability (in the 500-1500 J/kg range), activity is
likely to be more convective in nature, with isolated to scattered
thunderstorms expected. With more insolation in the forecast, highs
should be a few degrees warmer on Sunday, in the mid-70s to mid-80s.

96

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 203 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Key Messages:

 - Thunderstorm chances will be with us each day next week, with the
greatest rain potential anticipated on Thursday.

 - Warm and muggy conditions can be expected through at least
Thursday.

Monday through Friday:

As we progress through the upcoming workweek, guidance from the EPS
and GEFS indicate a transition from near zonal flow aloft (with weak
shortwaves mixed in) to a more amplified pattern (ridge in the West
and troughing in the East) over the Lower 48. These changes should
be induced by a seasonally strong upper level jet and trough nudging
into the Pacific Northwest early in the week. Meanwhile along the
east coast a surface high (over the Mid Atlantic today) shift east,
allowing southerly flow to increase moisture advection in Georgia.
By Monday and Tuesday surface dewpoints should return to the mid and
upper 60s, leading to muggy conditions. Toss in the nearly zonal
flow aloft, a lack of well defined forcing and strong diurnal
heating and we can anticipated isolated shower and thunderstorm
activity in Georgia during the afternoon and evening hours both
days. Limited shear and marginal instability both days suggests
little to no risk for severe weather at this time. As we move toward
the second half of the week a developing trough over the Great Lakes
should have an increasingly large impact on our weather. On
Wednesday this may mean greater afternoon and evening storm chances
across northern Georgia. Then on Thursday a cold frontal passage
appears probable. Both the EPS and GEFS have latched on to this
frontal passage, suggesting it will be our best chance for
widespread rainfall this week. Though some spread remains in the
guidance, more than 90 percent of the EPS and GEFS members spit our
rain in the Atlanta area on Thursday. Thursday also looks like the
day most likely to develop a risk for severe weather. Mainly due to
higher instability and the potential for the the frontal passage to
promote more organized convection. Drier air may move in on Friday
and limit the rain potential. This is however dependent on the
strength and timing of the frontal passage Thursday.

Temperature trends for the upcoming week will generally follow the
pattern noted above. The warmest temperatures can be expected
Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. On all three days highs should reach
the upper 80s in northern Georgia. A mix of lower 90s and upper 80s
is favored in central Georgia. The potential for a frontal passage,
widespread cloud cover and rainfall is leading to a significant
amount of spread in the high temperature forecast on Thursday.
Guidance from the NBM shows a 10 degree spread  between the 25th and
75th percentiles, suggesting only 50 percent confidence that the
afternoon high in Atlanta will be between 80 and 90 degrees. A drier
airmass and more sunshine may help the region level out in the 80s
on Friday, though spread remains predictably high for 6 days in the
future.

Albright

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 152 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Still may be some brief MVFR cigs around the Atlanta metro area
toward daybreak, but these are looking a bit less likely (mostly
remaining a bit farther to the W). As a result, have kept lowest
layer scattered with a higher cig at most terminals. Isolated shower
activity this early this morning will give way to scattered shower
and thunderstorm activity this afternoon, with the greatest
likelihood/duration around the Atlanta metro area and points N. That
being said, have continued this in a PROB30 group at this time. Winds
are expected to be light outside of thunderstorms. Wind direction at
ATL is expected to veer from SE to SSW around midday.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium to high for all elements.

SEC
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Athens          64  86  66  89 /  30  20  10  20
Atlanta         66  87  68  89 /  20  20  10  30
Blairsville     59  80  61  83 /  20  20  10  40
Cartersville    64  87  66  89 /  20  20  10  40
Columbus        67  89  69  90 /  20  20  10  20
Gainesville     64  84  66  87 /  30  20  10  30
Macon           65  88  69  90 /  20  20  10  20
Rome            64  88  66  90 /  10  20  10  40
Peachtree City  64  88  66  89 /  20  20  10  20
Vidalia         67  88  69  92 /  20  30  10  10
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

$$

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....Albright
AVIATION...SEC