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402
FXUS62 KFFC 270740
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
340 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024


...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Strong line of storms continues to progress towards the CWA. Eastern
portion of the line in north TN has become very outflow dominate,
with outflow boundary rushing ahead of the storms per KOHX. This is
good news for much of north GA, as this will undercut most of the
severe potential from these storms, though strong gusty winds will
remain possible. However, we have seen some development along the
western portions of the line in western/central TN with some QLCS
structures noted and new development in northern AL with some
transient supercell structures. This may push into portions of far
NW GA tonight, and as such, a tornado watch is in effect in the far
NW counties. These areas remain in an Enhanced Risk (Level 3
of 5) through 8am.

The expectation is that even if storms enter the area with severe
potential, they should begin to wind down pretty quickly.
Substantial EML is in place across much of GA around 700 mb, and
while a combination of WAA and moisture pooling is keeping
temperatures elevated, we have still cooled enough to create
substantial capping. This will have impacts on updraft momentum and
should lead to weakening of storms despite an otherwise favorable
environment. However, still can`t rule out seeing something produce
a damaging wind gust as it moves further south into the metro as
this all pushes through.

Substantial uncertainty remains regarding convective evolution for
this afternoon. Morning MCS that pushes into GA is expected to
weaken, but effects of it will remain into the afternoon across the
area. Cloud cover will likely limit surface heating which may limit
instability parameters. We see this play out in the 00Z HRRR for
instance, where northern GA and much of central GA only reach the
lower 80s for highs, rather than previously forecast upper 80s and
lower 90s. But, if cloud cover clears fast, or MCS does not progress
as far south, instability will be substantial during the afternoon
with MLCAPE values of 1500+ J/kg. There is also some diabatic
heating of the upper levels that will have occurred with line,
though this may be offset somewhat by advection of some better lapse
rates as the upper level shortwave moves by the area. Given we
remain on the edge of strong subtropical ridge with wave passing by,
strong westerly flow aloft will be in place allowing for 0-6 km
shear values of 30-40 kts during the early afternoon. Thinking that
given the progression of the MCS, the best chances of a severe storm
in the afternoon will be in central GA just ahead of the remnant
outflow. Still could see some stronger and possible a severe storm
form on the backside of the boundary in north GA and the metro if
enough daytime heating can occur. Storms will also have the cold
front pushing in to aid in initiation in north GA, though lack of
convergence along the front may limit the effectiveness of this.
Primary threats will be large hail and damaging winds, though can`t
rule out a tornado threat along the outflow boundary if a storm can
ingest vorticity along it just right. A Slight Risk (level 2 of 5)
is in effect through the afternoon and evening hours.

"Cold" front moves through the area into the evening and surges
through overnight. This will be less a break from the heat (it`s
almost June, welcome to Georgia) and more a break from the higher
humidity values as drier air pushes in. Forecast highs are in the
80s and lower 90s for areas outside the mountains.

Lusk
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 328 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

The extended forecast starts off dry as high pressure slowly
builds in from the northern plains and western great lake states.
With this ridge and drier airmass will come slightly cooler temps
for the middle to the end of the week. Temps Wed through Fri will
see highs mainly in the lower to middle 80s. Moisture begins to
creep back in for the weekend and could see precip chances move
back in for Sat/Sun.

01
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&&

.AVIATION...
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(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 243 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

VFR to start TAF period. Line of TSRA currently in TN and AL will
push into the metro TAF sites later this morning, but expected to
be weakening. Best thunder chances represented by TEMPO between
11Z and 15Z. Strong winds may precede thunderstorms at metro TAF
sites, with gusts up to 25 kts. Cigs will drop as line pushes
through, MVFR expected, though periods of IFR will be possible.
Some clearing will happen through afternoon allowing for chance of
more afternoon storms, though high uncertainty around these
forming. Winds today will be SW, 7-12 kts with gusts up to 20 kts. Front
will eventually approach and pass airport, turning winds NW later
this evening.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...

Medium afternoon convection potential, high all others.

Lusk
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Athens          85  64  88  62 /  50  20   0   0
Atlanta         86  66  88  65 /  50  20   0   0
Blairsville     79  58  79  54 /  80  10   0   0
Cartersville    86  62  86  59 /  60  10   0   0
Columbus        88  68  91  66 /  40  30   0   0
Gainesville     83  65  85  62 /  60  20   0   0
Macon           88  67  90  65 /  40  30   0   0
Rome            86  63  87  60 /  60  10   0   0
Peachtree City  86  64  88  63 /  50  20   0   0
Vidalia         91  71  91  67 /  40  40  10   0
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&&


$$

SHORT TERM...Lusk
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...Lusk