-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
444
FXUS62 KFFC 010830
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
430 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024



...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 413 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Showers and embedded thunderstorms are underway across much of AL
at the time of this writing, driven by a shortwave trough aloft
over the ArkLaMiss. The shortwave will drift east/northeast
through the day, driving the moisture axis currently over AL
eastward over the western half or so of GA. It`s across this area
that isolated to scattered showers are expected today. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible (illustrated by the General Thunder
Risk from SPC) but the HREF and CAMs suggest that appreciable
instability will struggle to materialize due largely to dense mid-
level and upper-level cloud cover. High temperatures will be in
the 70s across much of northern and western Georgia thanks to
cloud cover, while temperatures are forecasted to reach the
lower-80s to mid-80s across central and eastern Georgia, where
more insolation is expected. In the mountains, temperatures may
only reach the mid-60s to upper 60s.

The passage of the shortwave and the presence of its associated
moisture axis warrants a chance of showers and storms across much
of the area overnight, with 40% to 60% PoPs generally along and
north of I-85, in closest proximity to the lift/ascent from the
shortwave. Overnight/early Sunday morning lows will be in the 60s
outside of the northeast GA mountains, where mid-50s to upper-50s
are expected.

Quasi-zonal flow aloft is expected on Sunday, but ample moisture
and decreasing cloud cover should allow for daytime
destabilization and scattered to possibly widespread showers.
Isolated to scattered storms appear likely as HREF-progged MUCAPE
ranges from 500-1500 J/kg across much of the area. Marginal (at
best) mid-level lapse rates and 0-6 km bulk shear less than 30 kts
suggest that severe storms are not likely. That said, forecast
soundings show decent DCAPE (600-800 J/kg) so a few storms could
produce gusty to locally damaging winds should the downdrafts tap
into and mix down drier air aloft. Appropriately, SPC has the
entire CWA in a General Thunder risk. High temperatures are
forecasted to be in the upper 70s to mid-80s outside of the
mountains, where temperatures may only peak in the 60s.

Martin
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.LONG TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 413 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

The period will start with a weak upper trough extending from S
New England to the FL peninsula. This feature will shift E early
next week, leaving a weak upper pattern over the area. At the
surface, a weak frontal system will become diffuse, with isolated
to low end scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday night.

Early next week, weak disturbances will pass mostly N of the
area. This will lead to more of a diurnal summertime thunderstorm
pattern slightly favoring the N half of the area. By mid to late
weak, the upper pattern will become more troughy over the Great
Lakes and OH Valley. This pattern will support a surface front
which is presently forecast to sweep through the area late
Thursday and early Friday. More uniform rain chances are expected
ahead of the front, with drier conditions behind the front on
Friday. At this time, widespread severe wx is not anticipated.
However, a few storms may be strong across the extreme N on Wed
and Thu afternoons. Isolated strong storms will also be possible
accompanying the front as it moves S across Central GA on Fri
afternoon.

Temperatures are expected to be near to slightly above normal,
with low temperatures a bit farther from the norm. By Fri, the
cold front will bring slightly below normal high temperatures to
the NW portion of the state. /SEC

SEC
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

SCT/BKN mid-level and upper-level clouds are expected today.
Cloud decks will lower tonight with MVFR CIGs PSBL at ATL at the
very end of the TAF period (Sunday morning). Iso`d/sct`d -SHRA are
expected across the western half or so of GA today, but
confidence is relatively low regarding -SHRA occurring for an
extended time at ATL. Have maintained the PROB30 for -SHRA from
22z to 02z for the Atlanta area sites. The potential for TS is
very low at this time given little to no instability forecasted.
Winds will be SE at 5-10 kts with gusts of 15-20 kts.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Low to medium confidence on -SHRA coverage.
High confidence on all other elements.

Martin


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Athens          81  64  80  64 /  10  30  50  30
Atlanta         79  65  81  66 /  40  40  50  20
Blairsville     71  58  74  60 /  20  60  70  20
Cartersville    76  63  82  64 /  50  60  60  20
Columbus        79  66  83  67 /  50  50  40  20
Gainesville     77  63  78  65 /  20  40  60  20
Macon           83  66  82  65 /  20  20  40  20
Rome            75  64  82  65 /  60  60  60  20
Peachtree City  79  64  82  65 /  40  40  50  20
Vidalia         85  68  84  68 /  10  10  40  10
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM....SEC
AVIATION...Martin