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328
FXUS62 KFFC 010157
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
957 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024


.UPDATE...
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Issued at 955 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Only updates that were made were to account for ongoing trends
with temps a little warmer than forecasted. Also updated rain
chances to reflect the newest guidance which gives slightly more
confidence for showers to past the western third of the CWA. Still
not expecting anything to affect eastern GA at this time and
showers will be isolated to scattered in nature.
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&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 302 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Key Messages:

 - Isolated showers are possible in western Georgia Saturday, but
most of the area will remain dry.

 - Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible Saturday night,
especially in northern Georgia.

This Evening through Saturday Night:

Upper level ridging will be replaced by weak troughing during this
period as a shortwave trough moves from the Ozarks to the Ohio
Valley. This transition will allow scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms to gradually filter into the region Saturday and
Saturday night. Forecast rain chances through the day on Saturday
are in the 10 to 30 percent range over western Georgia. Any thunder
on Saturday should be limited due to anemic CAPE profiles (MUCAPE
values 300 to 700 J/kg). Severe weather is not expected and any
interruptions to daily activities should be brief in nature. A
surface high over the Atlantic and the approaching shortwave will
combine to keep east/southeast winds moving in the region on
Saturday at 4 to 12 kt. Afternoon highs should range from the 70s in
northwest Georgia (where clouds will be pervasive) to the upper 80s
in east central Georgia. Rain chances will continue to inch upward
Saturday night, especially in northwest Georgia where proximity to
the upper level trough will be better. Expect rain chances near 60
percent in north Georgia, falling to 10 percent near Macon.

Albright

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 302 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

A shortwave trough will be pushing across the Ohio Valley across the
Appalachians on Sunday, while at the surface a weak frontal boundary
approaches Georgia from the northwest. This will serve to keep PoPs
relatively elevated on Sunday, particularly across northwest and
north Georgia where scattered showers and thunderstorms are most
probable.

From Monday to Tuesday, the region will remain within weak quasi-
zonal flow aloft. PoPs will remain in the isolated to widely
scattered realm through midweek, with the highest PoPs relegated to
north Georgia as weak shortwave disturbances ripple to our north. By
late Wednesday into Thursday, as troughing builds back eastward
across the Great Lakes region, a weak cold front will be ushered
toward the area. PoPs will thus be on an upward trend from north to
south through Thursday ahead of the front. At this point,
significant severe weather concerns are not anticipated.

No huge temperature variations or anomalies are expected through the
period. Highs will be near to slightly below normal Sunday, trending
to near to slightly above normal through the work week while initial
near-normal lows will trend several degrees above normal by
midweek.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 731 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Expecting high level clouds to stick around through the evening
and overnight before SCT/BKN CIGS move into the area tomorrow
~12-14z at about 5-6kft. Confidence is low, but isolated to
scattered showers could affect the site tomorrow evening from 20z
to 02z. Expecting winds to gust again up to 20kt tomorrow
afternoon and evening as well.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Low/Medium on shower development.
High on all other elements.

Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Athens          57  81  62  81 /   0  20  40  40
Atlanta         63  80  65  81 /   0  30  40  50
Blairsville     55  73  57  74 /   0  20  50  60
Cartersville    63  80  62  81 /  10  40  60  60
Columbus        68  83  67  84 /  10  40  40  40
Gainesville     59  78  63  79 /   0  20  50  50
Macon           63  83  66  85 /   0  20  20  30
Rome            63  79  63  81 /  10  50  60  60
Peachtree City  63  81  63  82 /   0  30  40  40
Vidalia         63  86  67  87 /   0  10  10  30
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&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...Hernandez