-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
596
FXUS62 KFFC 311123
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
723 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024


...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 410 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Surface high pressure and ridging aloft will keep conditions dry
today. Relatively dense mid-level and upper-level clouds are
expected (downstream of clusters of convection over the
ArkLaMiss), so have used slightly lower (cooler) temperature
guidance. That said, temps will still climb into the 80s across
much of the area. The exception looks to be portions of northeast
Georgia, mainly the higher terrain. Have also used slightly lower
(drier) dew point guidance given drier trends this past evening
and overnight. As a result, a portion of east-central Georgia has
forecasted relative humidity of 25% or lower for a couple hours
this afternoon along with finer fuel moisture anticipated to be 8%
or lower. This is not quite Fire Danger Statement territory
(which is 4 hours or more of said criteria) but will need to keep
an eye on relative humidity observations across this area during
the day.

Cloud cover (especially in the lower-levels and mid-levels) will
increase overnight into tomorrow (Saturday) morning as a shortwave
trough approaches from the west. Have slight chance to chance
PoPs (15% to 35%) slowly spreading in from west to east as
moisture associated with the shortwave increases. Some of the CAMs
show some semblance of a decaying MCS pushing in from Alabama, so
that will be something to watch. That said, there is no
appreciable progged bulk shear across north and central Georgia,
so am not expecting organized storms. Dense cloud cover looks to
prevent much in the way of SBCAPE in the afternoon, and both
MUCAPE and MLCAPE are generally forecasted to be less than 500
J/kg. So, while isolated thunderstorms will be possible, the
threat for severe storms is low at this time. SPC has the western
half or so of Georgia in a General Thunder risk, which seems
appropriate. Saturday morning lows will be in the upper 50s to
mid-60s, and afternoon highs will be in the 80s outside of the
mountains.

Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 410 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

The upper ridge will shift E of the area by Saturday night as a
weak shortwave moves across the OH Valley and clips N GA. At the
surface, a weak front will approach the area from the NW, bringing
an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity to the W by late
Sat afternoon and evening. Likely PoPs will be confined to the NW
late Saturday night and Sunday morning, with isolated to scattered
showers and storms elsewhere. Scattered thunderstorms will
persist into Sunday for most of the area.

Early next week, the upper flow will become much weaker and
fairly zonal, with weak disturbances passing mostly N of the area.
This will lead to more of a diurnal summertime thunderstorm
pattern slightly favoring the N half of the area. By mid to late
weak, the upper pattern becomes more troughy over the OH Valley
once again. This pattern will support a surface front which is
presently forecast to sweep through the area late Thursday and
early Friday. More uniform rain chances are expected ahead of the
front, with drier conditions behind the front on Friday. At this
time, widespread severe wx is not anticipated.

Temperatures are expected to be near to slightly above normal,
with low temperatures a bit farther from the norm. /SEC

SEC

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 722 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Wind obs
at ATL have been calm/light to ENE around 5 kts over the last
couple of hours. Expect winds to remain out of the E around 3-8
kts through the day. Mid-level and upper-level clouds will
increase through the day. Not convinced that a true Cu field
will develop this afternoon given dense cloud cover aloft, but
cloud bases down to around 7 kft are possible.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...

High confidence on all elements.


Martin
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Athens          57  82  63  82 /   0  10  20  30
Atlanta         64  82  66  82 /   0  20  40  50
Blairsville     56  73  59  76 /   0  10  40  50
Cartersville    62  82  64  82 /   0  20  50  60
Columbus        66  86  67  85 /  10  20  30  40
Gainesville     59  79  64  79 /   0  10  30  50
Macon           61  85  66  85 /   0  10  10  30
Rome            63  82  64  82 /  10  30  60  60
Peachtree City  63  83  64  83 /   0  20  40  40
Vidalia         62  85  67  87 /   0   0   0  20
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&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM....SEC
AVIATION...Martin