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450
FXUS62 KFFC 241548
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1148 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024



...Midday Update...

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1142 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Conditions are currently quiet across the area, but eyes are on an
ongoing convective complex across northern Alabama. While
convective trends have been relatively stagnant with this
activity, as instability continues to build across north Georgia
(analyzed SBCAPE has already breached 2000 J/kg), outflow
boundaries from this area of convection will aid in the increase
in shower and thunderstorm coverage in north Georgia over the next
few hours. Any storm could produce damaging wind gusts, hail, and
locally heavy rainfall through this evening, and a Marginal Risk
remains highlighted from SPC.

RW
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 411 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

The forecast for the next few days will be mostly dominated by
uncertainty around convective evolution upstream and over the CWA.
Convective models are - unsurprisingly - all over the place in terms
where and when storms may occur today, with even hourly runs of the
HRRR showing different solutions. But more important is that in the
ensemble sense, most all do allow for convective development, even
if scattered in nature.

Mostly zonal, but somewhat diffluent flow will be in place across
the CWA today. A large upper level system with attendant sfc low
is pulling to the north across the upper Great Plains, allowing
for moisture return across the southeast, though better return
will be further to the west. Plenty of moisture is in place with
PWATs exceeding 1.5 across much of the CWA. Importantly, forecast
soundings show that moisture to be distributed through the column,
which makes for less impressive lapse rates. This isn`t
surprising given multiple rounds of convection to our west over
the past day or two injecting and advecting moisture over the
area. Several embedded MCV or mesoscale vortmax features will move
into north GA today from that previous convection as well, and
could provide a focus for convective development. Higher PoPs are
concentrated to the north as a result. Provided we can clear some
of the convective debris aloft, ample sunshine will allow for us
to reach convective temperature at the surface by the afternoon
across the CWA, providing another way for storms to fire
elsewhere. Looking at the parameter space, models show thin MLCAPE
generally from 750-1500 J/kg across the area by the afternoon,
with effective bulk shear of 20-30 kts. Hodographs are relatively
straight given SW winds at the surface, so little in the way of
streamwise vorticity ingestion is available. Put it all together,
and you have a low end risk for some hail or straight line wind
damage today, hence the Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) from the SPC.

Storm chances may continue a bit into the evening as plenty of
moisture remains and outflow boundaries could provide for a source
of lift. Going into the morning and afternoon of Saturday, a lot is
going to depend on convective evolution of today once again - both
here in GA as well as upstream. We will once again warm up enough to
allow for some afternoon thunderstorms, but the 06Z HRRR has
provided for an alternative solution, with a decaying MCS moving
into the area during the morning hours and leaving a nice cold pool
behind that limits any afternoon development. Given that forcing for
storms remains solidly in the realm of the mesoscale, have left a
general slight chance to chance PoPs across the CWA.

Lusk

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 411 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms expected through the
beginning of next week.

Nearly zonal Mid to upper level flow will allow several strong
shortwaves and a frontal boundary to move across the area through
Tuesday (Day 5). The forecast models are in fairly good agreement
with a few waves moving across the area Sunday and Monday with a
weakening frontal boundary moving through Tuesday.

These waves will mainly move through the state each afternoon
during the prime heating of the day with the potential to initiate
and sustain convection across North and Central GA. High temps will
be in the upper 80s to mid 90s Sunday through Tuesday. The models do
differ a bit on the timing of these waves but with this being a
fairly classic summertime pattern going with 30% to 60% each
afternoon should be enough for this sequence. A drier airmass is
expected to move in to the region Wed behind the exiting frontal
boundary. Surface high pressure builds Southeastward from the
Western great lake states with slightly cooler temps expected
days 6-7.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 656 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

VFR to start TAF period with cigs around 100-120. These will
remain for the next few hours before dissipating a bit. Cu field
expected to build in during the afternoon. Main concern will be
afternoon TSRA potential. Best winds seems to be 18-24Z, though
some threat will remain around that time period. Have not included
in TAF, but a small threat of some storms will remain overnight,
and will be dependent on how afternoon convection occurs. Winds
will be SW, 5-10 kts, going light at night.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium convective timing, high all others.

Lusk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          66  89  66  91 /  40  30  10  30
Atlanta         69  89  69  91 /  30  40  20  20
Blairsville     61  83  61  83 /  50  40  10  40
Cartersville    64  88  66  90 /  40  40  20  30
Columbus        71  89  70  92 /  20  30  10  10
Gainesville     66  87  67  88 /  40  30  10  30
Macon           69  90  69  92 /  20  30  10  20
Rome            65  88  67  91 /  50  40  20  30
Peachtree City  66  89  68  91 /  30  30  20  20
Vidalia         71  92  72  94 /  20  30  10  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lusk
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...Lusk