-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
532
FXUS62 KFFC 240616
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
216 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024



...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 241 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are beginning to develop in the
mountains of far north Georgia this afternoon. This trend is
expected to continue over the next few hours as a weak midlevel
disturbance pushes eastward across the Tennessee Valley and
initiates additional scattered convection. The bulk of this coverage
is likely to be across eastern Tennessee into the Carolinas through
this evening; however, scattered convection will affect north
Georgia (particularly far north Georgia) through the evening hours.
With analyzed SBCAPE at 2000 J/kg across far north Georgia and lapse
rates of 7 C/km, any storm through this evening could produce
locally damaging wind gusts and hail. For the remainder of the area
near and south of I-20, dry and warm conditions will prevail through
the remainder of the day.

Convective coverage will gradually diminish into the overnight
hours, at which point PoPs will be at a minimum. Still, moving into
the day Friday, PoPs will again be on the upswing with coverage
likely to be considerably higher than today across the bulk of north
Georgia. Another shortwave disturbance within the quasi-zonal flow
aloft will approach the area and initiate scattered showers and
thunderstorms, perhaps as early as late morning across north
Georgia. More widespread development is then expected to increase
across north Georgia through the afternoon as instability builds.
With a similar environment in place as today (SBCAPE upwards of 1500-
2000 J/kg, similarly steep lapse rates, favorable bulk shear),
damaging wind gusts and hail will be possible in the strongest
storms. Additionally, any storms that are able to grow upscale into
more organized clusters as indicated in some CAMs would pose a more
concentrated damaging wind threat. For these reasons, all of the CWA
north of a Columbus to Macon line remains highlighted in a Marginal
Risk on the Day 2 convective outlook from SPC.

PoPs remain relatively elevated (high-end chance) into the overnight
hours Friday night across north Georgia to account for any lingering
convection.

RW

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 241 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

Unsettled weather is expected through the first of next week.

The mid levels will remain very active through early next week with
several strong shortwaves/mesoscale convective systems noted with the
flow. The synoptic models are progging at least three strong
shortwaves to impact the CWA during the early part of the long term
period, one on Saturday and a second late Sunday/Monday and a third
on Tuesday. The third system is in tandem with a cold frontal
passage.

Each one of these mid level systems will have the potential to
initiate and sustain convection across the CWA. Models do struggle
with the timing of these types of systems (MCS/MCV) and pops will
likely remain in the high end chance category for now through the
weekend. Will have slightly higher pops with the FROPA. The CWA will
remain in a moist and unstable atmos through early next week, so
strong to severe storms will be possible. Severe storms will have
the potential to produce damaging wind gusts, large hail and even a
brief tornado. Storms also may be a bit more organized late Monday
into Tuesday with the surface boundary moving through.

Quiet weather is possible for the middle to late part of next week
as high pressure builds in from the north. The old frontal boundary
is progged to remain stalled across the panhandle of FL.

NListemaa

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 157 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

VFR expected through much of the TAF period, though this may be
interrupted by scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Best
time window for airport impacts looks to be the 18-24Z time
period, as this is when storms will be most numerous, but impacts
are possible before or after depending on when and where storms
form. Otherwise, current SCT to BKN VFR cigs will be in place
through the morning. Cu field expected in the afternoon. Winds
will be SW through day, moving W to NW after sunset, 4-8 kts.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium convective timing, high all others.

Lusk
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Athens          66  90  67  90 /  40  30  10  30
Atlanta         68  89  69  91 /  30  40  20  30
Blairsville     61  83  62  83 /  50  40  20  50
Cartersville    64  88  66  91 /  40  40  20  40
Columbus        70  90  70  92 /  20  30  10  10
Gainesville     66  88  67  88 /  40  30  20  30
Macon           69  91  70  92 /  20  30  10  10
Rome            66  88  67  91 /  50  40  20  40
Peachtree City  67  89  67  92 /  30  30  10  20
Vidalia         71  92  71  94 /  20  30  10  20
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....NListemaa
AVIATION...Lusk