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485
FXUS62 KFFC 231846
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
246 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 241 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are beginning to develop in the
mountains of far north Georgia this afternoon. This trend is
expected to continue over the next few hours as a weak midlevel
disturbance pushes eastward across the Tennessee Valley and
initiates additional scattered convection. The bulk of this coverage
is likely to be across eastern Tennessee into the Carolinas through
this evening; however, scattered convection will affect north
Georgia (particularly far north Georgia) through the evening hours.
With analyzed SBCAPE at 2000 J/kg across far north Georgia and lapse
rates of 7 C/km, any storm through this evening could produce
locally damaging wind gusts and hail. For the remainder of the area
near and south of I-20, dry and warm conditions will prevail through
the remainder of the day.

Convective coverage will gradually diminish into the overnight
hours, at which point PoPs will be at a minimum. Still, moving into
the day Friday, PoPs will again be on the upswing with coverage
likely to be considerably higher than today across the bulk of north
Georgia. Another shortwave disturbance within the quasi-zonal flow
aloft will approach the area and initiate scattered showers and
thunderstorms, perhaps as early as late morning across north
Georgia. More widespread development is then expected to increase
across north Georgia through the afternoon as instability builds.
With a similar environment in place as today (SBCAPE upwards of 1500-
2000 J/kg, similarly steep lapse rates, favorable bulk shear),
damaging wind gusts and hail will be possible in the strongest
storms. Additionally, any storms that are able to grow upscale into
more organized clusters as indicated in some CAMs would pose a more
concentrated damaging wind threat. For these reasons, all of the CWA
north of a Columbus to Macon line remains highlighted in a Marginal
Risk on the Day 2 convective outlook from SPC.

PoPs remain relatively elevated (high-end chance) into the overnight
hours Friday night across north Georgia to account for any lingering
convection.

RW
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&&

.LONG TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 241 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

Unsettled weather is expected through the first of next week.

The mid levels will remain very active through early next week with
several strong shortwaves/mesoscale convective systems noted with the
flow. The synoptic models are progging at least three strong
shortwaves to impact the CWA during the early part of the long term
period, one on Saturday and a second late Sunday/Monday and a third
on Tuesday. The third system is in tandem with a cold frontal
passage.

Each one of these mid level systems will have the potential to
initiate and sustain convection across the CWA. Models do struggle
with the timing of these types of systems (MCS/MCV) and pops will
likely remain in the high end chance category for now through the
weekend. Will have slightly higher pops with the FROPA. The CWA will
remain in a moist and unstable atmos through early next week, so
strong to severe storms will be possible. Severe storms will have
the potential to produce damaging wind gusts, large hail and even a
brief tornado. Storms also may be a bit more organized late Monday
into Tuesday with the surface boundary moving through.

Quiet weather is possible for the middle to late part of next week
as high pressure builds in from the north. The old frontal boundary
is progged to remain stalled across the panhandle of FL.

NListemaa
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

VFR conditions will persist through the remainder of the day and
are probable through the period. A low potential for patchy
MVFR/IFR cigs will exist near ATL/AHN area sites Friday AM
(12-16Z) but widespread low cigs are not presently expected. Iso
SHRA/TSRA are possible near ATL/AHN sites between 21-00Z today,
though better coverage will likely remain north of TAF sites. More
widespread SHRA/TSRA are expected on Friday, especially after
18Z. Winds will remain SW to W at 3-8 kts.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on morning cigs/evening TSRA potential.
High confidence on winds.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Athens          66  86  66  90 /  20  40  30  30
Atlanta         69  87  68  89 /  10  40  30  30
Blairsville     61  78  61  83 /  40  60  50  40
Cartersville    66  84  64  88 /  20  50  40  40
Columbus        69  90  70  90 /   0  20  20  20
Gainesville     66  83  66  88 /  20  40  40  40
Macon           69  89  69  91 /   0  20  10  20
Rome            66  86  66  88 /  30  60  40  40
Peachtree City  68  87  67  89 /  10  30  30  30
Vidalia         71  91  71  92 /   0  10  10  20
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....NListemaa
AVIATION...RW