-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
029
FXUS62 KFFC 022327
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
727 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024



...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 223 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Key Messages:

 - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will remain possible in the
region through Monday.

 - The severe weather risk through Monday remains low, with peak
wind gusts near 40 mph and lighting being the main potential hazards
with any thunderstorms.

This Evening through Monday:

A weak shortwave trough will help widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms linger in the region through tonight. Though, with the
loss of diurnal heating this evening, the degree of activity should
diminish and become increasingly limited to portions of northeast
Georgia tonight. Severe weather is unlikely through this evening due
to a lack of effective wind shear (values below 20 kt), however peak
MUCAPE values near 1200 J/kg may be sufficient for a few stronger
updrafts in northern Georgia. Therefore a couple of isolated
downbursts with wind gusts near 40 mph can`t be entirely ruled out
through 10 PM.

A very weak transient ridge should move into the region on Monday.
Subsidence associated with the ridge looks nearly nonexistent, and
thus diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm activity is expected
again Monday afternoon. Despite patchy low clouds and fog in the
morning, diurnal heating should be more pronounced on Monday, with
afternoon highs returning to the upper 80s. This should lead to mean
MUCAPE values (per the 12Z HREF) in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range
Monday afternoon. Compared to today this would be a 50 to 100%
increase in available instability. Effective shear and lapse rates
should remain marketable weak however, and thus the overall severe
risk remains low. The strongest storms could produce isolated wind
gusts near 40 mph, frequent lighting and brief heavy rainfall.

Albright

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 223 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

At a glance:

    - Daily rain chances

    - Return to slightly above average warmth

As we enter the extended range on Tuesday, low-amplitude mid-level
ridging overspreads much of the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface,
the Southeast sits on the far western periphery of a surface high,
within a relative weakness in presiding flow. A weak shortwave
disturbance and associated moisture maxima approaching from the west
will support the development of mostly diurnally-driven convection
during the afternoon Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible, but in the absence of organizational
kinematics, not expecting much in the way of severe weather chances.
The entirety of the state is outlined by SPC`s General Thunder risk
for Day 3, supportive of an isolated strong storm.

Beyond Tuesday, a mid-level ridge sets up across the Desert
Southwest, positioning the Deep South under a regime of
northwesterly flow that carries through the remainder of the long-
term period. As is characteristic of this flow pattern, low-end
chance PoPs (30-50%) will develop each day. With moist southwesterly
flow off of the Gulf of Mexico -- and PWATs >1.5" each day -- the
atmosphere will be primed for efficient rainfall and quick
recovery between rounds of convection. Forecast multi-day (Tuesday
through Thursday) rainfall totals across north and central
Georgia currently stand between a tenth and three-quarters of an
inch, but these values may be exceeded in areas that experience
stronger or slower moving storms. For now, it looks like the best
chances for more quasi-organized thunderstorms will come Wednesday
through Thursday, aided by a pre-frontal trough. Even so, any
weak disturbances traversing our mid-level flow could serve as a
catalyst to nudge any discrete cells into more long-lived clusters
that persist beyond the loss of afternoon heating. Per SPC, and
corroborated by taking a dive into ensemble guidance,
predictability is too low at this range to pin down any clear
signals for widespread severe weather. The most probable outcome
appears to be an isolated strong to marginally severe storm
(typical as we move into a more summertime pattern driven by
instability as opposed to wind shear) capable of producing gusty
to damaging winds and nuisance flooding if storm motions are slow.
Rain and storm chances then look to taper off for a majority of
the weekend as a drier airmass settles in in the wake of a cold
frontal passage. Highs will be in the mid-80s to lower-90s each
day, with lows in the 60s to lower-70s.

96

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 714 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

A few shra may linger until 02Z and will keep the VC in until
then. VFR for much of the overnight hours. However, the models are
progging some bkn MVFR and potentially some bkn IFR in around
10-11Z. Not confident that this will occur. Isold/sct
afternoon/evening shra and tsra possible on Monday. Winds will be
light and variable for the overnight hours should go back to the
SW side with mixing tomorrow.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Med confidence all elements.

NListemaa
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          63  86  66  88 /  50  20  10  30
Atlanta         66  86  68  88 /  30  20  10  40
Blairsville     60  81  61  82 /  30  30  10  40
Cartersville    63  87  66  88 /  20  20  10  40
Columbus        68  88  69  90 /  20  20  10  40
Gainesville     64  85  66  87 /  40  20  10  40
Macon           66  88  68  90 /  30  20  10  40
Rome            64  87  66  87 /  10  20  10  40
Peachtree City  64  87  66  88 /  30  20  10  40
Vidalia         68  90  69  91 /  20  20  10  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...NListemaa