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858
FXUS62 KGSP 240605
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
205 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Temperatures will remain several degrees above normal each day
through the holiday weekend. Daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms. A cold front on Monday brings cooler and drier
conditions for the middle of next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 10:25 PM EDT Thursday: Widely sct showers with a few weak,
embedded thunderstorms continue to linger over our fcst area late
tonight. As we head into the overnight, this activity should con-
tinue to diminish as any lingering sfc-based instability dwindles
and the weak upper shortwave energy moves further east. Once the
convection exits the area overnight, gradually clearing skies
should permit some amount fog development. With dewpts remaining
elevated thru the overnight and winds going light to calm across
the area, it`s looking more likely that fog could become more
widespread than previously anticipated. Low temps Friday morning
should be very similar to Thursday and remain about 4 to 6 degrees
above climatology.

Otherwise, we will remain under broad/flat upper ridging thru
the period. Weak, embedded upper shortwave energy is expected
to translate over our fcst area again Friday afternoon/evening
and will provide at least some amount of upper level support for
convection. Fog should sct out fairly quickly tomorrow morning
giving way to another partly cloudy day. Profiles will once again
support some afternoon convection, with most of the near-term
guidance producing about 1000 to 1500 J/kg of sbCAPE and roughly
20 to 30 kts of bulk shear. Consequently, some thunderstorms could
become severe and produce strong downbursts and/or damaging hail.
SPC currently has most of our CWA in a Marginal Risk Area for svr
convection for Fri. Based on the latest fcst profiles, this still
seems reasonable despite the fact that the latest CAMs continue
to struggle with the timing and location of convective development
thru the afternoon and evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 215 AM Friday: Picking up Saturday with gradual strengthening
of an area of high pressure over the Gulf and a weak ridge extending
northward over the CWA. As the ridge progresses eastward, shortwaves
traverse the Carolinas and up the chances for additional showers and
thunderstorms. Guidance keeps a steady stream of moisture in the
area through the forecast period and beyond, with instability
remaining prevalent. Latest guidance does bring some questions as
far as coverage on Saturday, especially outside the mountains. EURO
is trending for a few more areas outside the mountains, but the GFS
trends drier. Cannot rule out a few thunderstorms at this time.
Sunday looks to dry out a bit as the upper ridge axis crosses over
the CWA and suppresses rain chances. However, height rises does make
Sunday the warmest day with low 90s popping up in most places east
of the mtns. Meanwhile, an upper low forms over the southern plains
and lifts NE, bringing a chance for a FROPA across the mountains
Monday, increasing rain and TS chances once again. At this time,
guidance has decent upper flow of 30-40kts and sufficient
instability. Modeled soundings show steep sfc-3km lapse rates, but
with a strong T/Td spread and inverted-V. Will continue to monitor,
though it appears to be more typical TS with a frontal passage.
Overall, hotter temps returning for most of the holiday weekend and
TS chances each day.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 220 AM Friday: Continuing with Monday night onward, the
pattern becomes generally more dry as far as the synoptic pattern
goes. Any remaining FROPA should be weakened closer to Monday night
and pinch off rain and thunderstorms chances by Tuesday. As the
strong upper low lifts towards the Great Lakes, a strong ridge
builds over the central CONUS, taking on an omega pattern toward the
north. Meanwhile, high pressure amplifies zonally to the south and
balances height rise/falls through at least Wednesday. Long range
models show an upper trough dipping southward from the Great Lakes.
Given how far out the model runs are, there is still much
uncertainty as to how far south and if the trough reaches the CWA.
GFS suggests a stronger pressure gradient and possible rain chances,
while the EURO remains less enthusiastic and keeps the area dry.
After Wednesday, the ridge axis from the central CONUS propagates
eastward toward the CWA and shunts rain chances with strong
subsidence aloft. Temperatures should remain close to climo through
the period as well.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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At KCLT and elsewhere: A low confidence forecast this morning
because of much uncertainty with the timing, coverage, and location
of convection over the next 24 hours. Most of the convection will
probably be organized around outflow boundaries and waves aloft,
reference the two area of showers and storms working their way
eastbound early this morning. We will handle this with amends and
TEMPO groups as appropriate, to handle the restrictions around
the precip. It is possible the precip will lead to patches of MVFR
to IFR ceiling/vis with stratus and fog through daybreak, but it
should mix out quickly. Wind will be variable and light. For Friday,
will go VFR prevailing, with a PROB30 for afternoon thunderstorms
and associated restrictions. Wind should be W to NW. After the
loss of daytime heating, we should have only debris cloudiness.

Outlook: A unsettled pattern will linger thru the weekend and
into early next week, allowing for diurnal shower and thunderstorm
chances each day and fog development each night/morning.
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&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...PM