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725
FXUS62 KGSP 311846
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
246 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Dry high pressure centered over the region will keep temperatures
slightly below normal, with dry weather persisting through Saturday.
High pressure shifts offshore Sunday with warming temperatures and
increasing moisture. A more active stretch of weather may return
early next week with daily afternoon thunderstorm chances within a
summer like pattern. Another cold front will approach the area late
week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 2:25 PM Friday...A broad area of sct to bkn cirrus continues
to make its way eastward over our area this afternoon. As expected,
winds have diminished over the past few hours as the larger-scale
pressure gradient has weakened as the sfc high slides further south.
Expect the high clouds to become more sct as the evening wears on.
This should allow for decent radiational cooling and low temps to
bottom-out 1 to 2 categories below climatology overnight.

Otherwise, a robust upper trof will continue to translate eastward
and off the Atlantic Coast while a stout upper ridge builds over
the eastern CONUS. By the end of the near-term period Sat evening,
an embedded upper shortwave will help push the upper ridge axis
further east and over the Atlantic Coast. At the sfc, broad high
pressure will continue to slide SSE thru the period and will be
moving off the SE Coast by the end of the period. This should keep
us dry with below normal temperatures and dew points for Saturday.
Relative humidity values will likely bottom-out near critical values
again Saturday aftn mostly over the NC Piedmont, however relatively
weak winds should limit any fire danger concerns.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 130 pm Friday: Deep layer ridging will finally have
relinquished much of its influence across our area early in the
short term, with low level moisture increasing around the western
periphery of the western Atlantic-centered anticyclone. Showers
originating from a pre-frontal environment across the TN Valley may
make a run toward the CWA as early as Sunday morning, during which
time PoPs increase to the chance category across our western areas.
The increasing moisture should support weak destabilization Sunday
afternoon, with scattered diurnal convection anticipated, especially
across the mountains, where general 40-60 PoPs are advertised. With
surface high remaining centered over the western Atlantic, S/SW flow
will support the continued increase of moisture during the latter
half of the period, with another afternoon/evening of isolated/
widely scattered convection anticipated Tuesday. Temperatures will
generally be right around normal through the period.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 140 pm Friday: The upper air pattern will remain somewhat
nebulous during at least the first half of the medium range, with
levels of heating, moisture (and by extension, diurnal instability)
expected to return to...if not a little higher than seasonal normals
by the middle of next week. As such, this period of time will be
dominated by scattered diurnal convection (generally 30-50 PoPs) and
steadily warming temps. By late in the week, the global models are
converging toward a consensus of introducing substantial height
falls to the East...advertising a deep upper low moving into the
Great Lakes region by the end of the period. Associated frontal zone
could enhance diurnal convective chances Thursday, although
confidence in timing is such that we generally stick with
slightly-above-climo PoPs on Thursday, with a transition to
diurnal/token convective chances next Friday. Temps are forecast to
be a category or so above climo through the period.
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: expect VFR conditions to continue thru the
18z taf period at all terminals with few to bkn high clouds thru
the period. Winds will continue to weaken thru the evening as sfc
high pressure slides further south and the larger-scale pressure
gradient relaxes. Winds should go light and vrb to calm later tonight
and remain that way thru tomorrow morning. They should pick up from
the south by the early afternoon tomorrow but remain relatively weak
thru 18z.

Outlook: expect VFR conditions and dry wx to continue thru Saturday.
Convective chances return on Sunday and linger into next week.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JPT