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404
FXUS61 KILN 251057
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
657 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A weak cold front will move through the region today, bringing
a chance for showers and thunderstorms. For Sunday into Sunday
night, a stronger weather system moving into the area has the
potential to push multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms
through the Ohio Valley. Some of these thunderstorms may be
severe. Low pressure and a cold front will then move east across
the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Monday, bringing additional
threats for showers and thunderstorms. A cooler and showery
pattern will then setup into midweek.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A mid level s/wv will move east across the Great Lakes today.
This feature will be associated with a weak cold front which
will traverse our region. Given that the s/wv will be removed
from the area, forcing/lift will be dependent on diurnal heating
and weak low level convergence ahead and along the cold front.
This should be enough for a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Given low end moderate shear and low end moderate instability,
a strong or severe storm across about the eastern half of the
CWFA can not be ruled out this afternoon into this evening.
Highs will range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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Convection should diminish and exit the eastern CWFA area this
evening as the weak cold front eventually lays out west to east
near or just south of the Ohio River. We will see a brief
respite in active weather overnight. Skies will range from
mostly clear north to partly cloudy south. With higher dewpoints
lingering east/south, some patchy to areas of river fog will be
possible. Lows will range from the upper 50s north to the lower
60s south.

Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible
Sunday into Sunday night as a mid level trough moves from the
Plains into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Embedded s/wvs or
MCVs rippling through the mean trough will help to act as
triggering mechanisms in the return flow that will be an
increasingly moist and unstable airmass. Uncertainty still
exists at this juncture for Sunday in terms of how one of those
s/wvs or MCVs will affect our forecast area. Looking at many
convection allowing models, some weaken the convection as it
moves into our area during the late morning/afternoon hours
while others try to hold the convection together as it hugs a
warm front trying to advance to the northeast. How this all
plays out will have an affect on what convection will do Sunday
evening/night and where overall severe weather will occur. At
this point, it appears that some of the convection will hold
together as it moves into our region, especially west. Some
strong to marginally severe storms may occur with this first
round. This feature has the potential, if strong enough, to
modulate the airmass by temporarily stabilizing the atmosphere
in its wake. How soon another mid level s/wv or MCV begins to
move east and interacts with a returning most/unstable airmass
with and an increasingly stronger wind field will all depend on
timing and spacing between the two entities. Right now, the SPC
seems to be thinking that enough airmass recovery across our
southwest would put this region in the highest risk for severe
(damaging winds the main threat with isolated large hail and
isolated tornadoes the secondary threats) for Sunday evening and
night, with less chances for severe farther north and east
where storms may be more elevated in nature. In addition to the
storms Sunday night, there will be a flood/flash flood risk
given pwats in the 1.50 to 1.75 range. At this time, will rely
on SPC to break down the HWO into different segments with the
southwestern CWFA having the highest threat based on the latest
model guidance. Highs on Sunday will range from the lower to mid
80s with lows Sunday night only dropping into the mid and upper
60s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Increased precipitation chances for Monday as the cold front
will be moving through the region and models are in agreement on
precipitation with this feature. There is instability as well
especially across the south and east and therefore increased
thunder chances from the blend across these areas. Gusty winds
are expected during the day, however expect wind gusts to
increase more after the passage of the front during the late
afternoon and into the evening hours. Wind gusts of 35 to 40 mph
will be possible outside of thunderstorms. Cannot rule out some
isolated stronger wind gusts. Damaging wind parameters indicate
the potential for some damaging wind potential with the storms
on Monday. Will add isolated damaging wind potential into the
HWO.

Multiple upper level disturbances will work through Monday
night through the day on Wednesday allowing for off and on
shower activity. A slight chance of thunder is also possible
Tuesday afternoon. Breezy conditions will be likely on Tuesday,
however wind gusts will not be as strong as Monday.

There is not a strong signal for precipitation after the
daytime period on Wednesday and therefore went dry for the
remainder of the long term.

With the passage of the cold front on Monday, temperatures will
be cooler in the long term with highs in the 70s across most
locations during this time. Lows will drop down into the 50s and
even the 40s Wednesday and Thursday nights.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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For today, a cold front will move east/southeast across the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Main mid level disturbance will be
removed from our region across the Great Lakes. This just leaves
diurnal instability and weak low level forcing ahead and along
the cold front to generate some scattered showers/storms. Have
only included VCTS/CB at the eastern terminals until frontal
passage. Winds will shift from the southwest to the west, then
to the northwest with the frontal passage. Wind speeds will be
around 10 knots.

For tonight, the cold front will sag to the east/southeast and
will eventually lay out along or just south of the Ohio River.
Skies will become mostly clear behind the front. Some patchy to
areas of fog (mainly river fog) may develop along and south of
the Ohio River. Have placed some MVFR/IFR visibilities at KLUK.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times through Tuesday.
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&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Hickman