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369
FXUS61 KILN 211904
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
304 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Seasonably warm temperatures continue through the entire week,
but a subtle cooldown occurs on Thursday with the passage of a
cold front. Periods of showers and storms will continue through
majority of the work week, with stronger storm potential later
on Wednesday into Wednesday night.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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Main story today will be the hot and humid air mass that will
continue to provide warmer than normal temperatures throughout
the Ohio Valley. A few locations may be able to reach the 90
degree mark today, with dewpoints hanging around the lower to
middle 60s.

While no large-scale forcing/ascent will be in place, this
unstable air mass has allowed for some diurnally driven
showers/storms to develop, mainly across portions of southern
OH/northern KY/southeastern IN. Anything that develops will
remain isolated in nature and likely sub-severe, but locally
stronger wind gusts certainly possible.

While dry conditions are expected majority of the night, a
weakening complex of showers/storms will move in from the west
and could still provide some rainfall to portions of the
Tristate area, mainly after 5 AM. Very mild overnight lows in
the upper 60s to near 70 are forecast.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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CAMs continue to have a robust signal for a weakening MCS moving
into the Tristate area early Wednesday morning. Overall
maintenance of this complex remains uncertain, but the Tristate
area has the best potential to observe showers and perhaps a
few rumbles of thunder. Bufkit soundings suggest that if any
storms persist into our CWA, they will remain elevated and sub-
severe.

The remainder of Wednesday and Wednesday night has had growing
uncertainty recently, but there has been a trend towards a less
active severe weather day in our fa. As we progress into
Wednesday afternoon, the thermodynamic environment will be quite
impressive. SBCAPE will increase to around 2000 J/kg and steep
lapse rates (esp low-level) will develop. Shear profiles are not
favorable however, so if anything is able to develop,
downbursts and perhaps large hail would be the primary daytime
threats.

Shower/thunderstorm activity expected to increase Wednesday
night as the primary upper level forcing and associated surface
cold front begin to work through the area. Shear profiles begin
to improve but are more unidirectional, limiting the potential
tornado concern. Will continue with severe mention mainly
through the beginning of Wednesday night, but the evening and
early overnight period appear to be the best window based on how
CAMs are trending. Hydro threat should be limited but if any
training storms exist, PWATs of 1.3-1.5" will lead to some
efficient rainfall and could lead to localized flooding.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A fairly progressive zonal flow pattern will continue aloft into
early next week. This will allow for a series of mid level short
waves to move east across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, leading to
occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms.

The first couple of short waves will move across mainly the Tennessee
Valley Thursday and then again Friday, resulting in a better chance
for showers and thunderstorms across our southern areas. It looks
like we could be in between systems for Saturday so will go with
lower pops for the start of the weekend. A stronger short wave will
move east across the Ohio Valley Sunday into Monday. This will be
accompanied by some better wind fields/deep layer shear and the
potential for a few stronger to severe storms. Some secondary short
wave energy will lead to falling heights and a lingering chance for
showers and thunderstorms continuing into Tuesday.

Temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal through the
weekend with daytime highs generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s
before some more seasonable readings return Monday into Tuesday.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A fairly robust cu field has developed across the terminals and
will persist during the daytime hours. While VFR conditions are
primarily expected, this particular air mass may spawn an
isolated shower/storm that could impact the terminals for a
brief period of time. At the start of the taf period, a cell
producing thunder is tracking towards CVG/LUK, but it is
uncertain if it will be able to maintain itself. Included a
TEMPO mention for this potential however.

Cu will dissolve this evening, but additional low to mid level
clouds build in from the west overnight. There will be a
weakening line of showers/storms moving towards the Tristate
early Wednesday morning. There is still some potential for
residual showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder to move across
the western terminals. Additionally, southwesterly winds will
begin to increase Wednesday morning, with sustained winds of
10-15 kts and gusts of 20-25 kts expected.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms likely at times Wednesday into Thursday.
MVFR CIGs possible Wednesday into Thursday. Additional chances
for thunderstorms will return Friday and Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clark
NEAR TERM...Clark
SHORT TERM...Clark
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...Clark