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338
FXUS61 KILN 031443
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1043 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure aloft will strengthen slightly as it
amplifies northward today and overnight. Shortwave energy and a
southerly flow may combine and spark afternoon shower activity
and a few thunderstorms on Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms
will become increasingly likely through Wednesday ahead of a
cold front that crosses in the late day and early evening,
marking the end of any precipitation.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Satellite show stratus across all but the northwest part of the
area. This is starting to break up into stratocumulus. Still
expect a decrease in coverage as the day progresses. Cannot
completely rule out a sprinkle or even brief shower, especially
in southeast counties where instability will be relatively
higher, although overall there is little to any forcing. Highs
will generally be in the lower 80s, although if clouds end up
being a bit more extensive in any area, then it might not make
80.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
An upper level trough and cold front will start approaching the
Ohio Valley on Tuesday into Tuesday night the northwest.
Strengthening southerly flow develops ahead of the disturbance
leading to increasing temperatures and moisture across the
region. Overnight lows will only drop to 65 degrees give or take
a degree or two.

Highs are forecast to spike into the mid to upper 80s Tuesday
afternoon in a humid airmass. Mid level impulses of energy
passing northeast through the region on the fairly uniform
southwest flow will interact with these receptive conditions to
see some passing showers, particularly in the west and
southwest. Sunshine in the air ahead of these impulses may add
some instability in the afternoon, allowing some of these
passing showers to contain some thunderstorm activity. Coverage
and placement remains uncertain as both forcing and shear is
weak.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mid level flow backs with moisture increasing ahead of a
shortwave moving into the Upper MS Valley Tuesday night.
Precipitation chances increase Wednesday as the shortwave pivots
thru the Great Lakes and a surface cold front sweeps east thru
the Ohio Valley. Model solutions show moderate instability
developing ahead of this front Wednesday when a few of the
storms could become strong to severe.

Mid and upper level low pressure settles into the Great Lakes
Thursday offering a continued threat for showers. Model
solutions show considerable spread in how progressive this
feature is as we head into the weekend. Have followed a
consensus solution keeping low chance pops going with a diurnal
uptick during the afternoon. The highest pops have been placed
over the northeast counties closer to the low pressure.

Temperatures will be a little above normal Wednesday with highs
from the upper 70s to the lower and middle 80s. Readings look
to trend below normal by Friday with highs ranging from the
lower 70s to the mid/upper 70s and then near normal Saturday and
Sunday when readings are expected to top out between 75 and 80.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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After the low stratus/fog lifts this morning, it will lift and
be more of a bkn MVFR, then lift to VFR by afternoon. It should
dissipate in the evening with the loss of insolation/direct
heating. Boundary over southern CWA may be enough to have a
brief light shower passing near Ohio River.

High clouds work in overnight ahead of the showers developing in
the warm sector west of the CWA.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday night.
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&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Franks