-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
134
FXUS62 KJAX 010134
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
934 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 922 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Forecast remains on track this evening with no significant changes
made as easterly winds settle gradually towards 5-10 mph inland
and closer to 10-15 mph at the coast. Skies will remain mostly
clear tonight with slightly cooler than average lows into the
lower 60s, mid 60s around I-95, the St Johns river and north
central FL and closer to normal in the low 70s coast.

Saturday, the start of the weekend will be largely dry as high
pressure over the eastern Carolinas builds east off the Outer
Banks by afternoon with winds 10-20 with gusts to 25 mph behind
the Atlantic seabreeze at the coast and 10-15 mph inland. An
isolated shower or thunderstorm may develop west of I-75 as
the Seabreezes merge there, but otherwise skies will be partly
cloudy under few to scattered cumulus and scattered to broken
cirrus clouds arriving downstream of thunderstorms well to the
west along the central Gulf coast. Highs will be near normal
around 90 to low 90s along and west of I-75 and cooler at the
coast in the low to mid 80s.
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&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 123 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

High pressure will continue to wedge down the southeastern
seaboard, resulting in a tightening local pressure gradient
that will create breezy east-northeasterly winds through
the late afternoon hours today. These breezy onshore winds
will quickly push the Atlantic sea breeze well inland, with
this boundary crossing I-75 late this afternoon and then
colliding with a more pinned Gulf coast sea breeze towards
sunset along or just west of the Suwannee River. A few
isolated showers or possibly a short-lived thunderstorm may
develop along the Suwannee River in Gilchrist and southern
Suwannee Counties towards sunset, with this activity possibly
extending southward to far western portions of Marion County.
Subsidence and an overall dry air mass will keep any low-topped
convection that manages to develop weak and short-lived in
nature, with this activity then pushing west of the Suwannee
River after sunset.

Winds at inland locations will gradually decouple tonight, with
nothing more than occasional thin cirrus clouds spilling into our
area overnight that will be emanating from convection triggered by
the upstream shortwave trough that will progress slowly east-
southeastward from the Ozarks towards the Tennessee and lower
Mississippi Valleys. Fair skies, subsidence, and a dry air mass
will allow lows to fall to around 60 degrees for much of inland
southeast GA, with low to mid 60s expected elsewhere at inland
locations. Onshore winds will be slow to subside at coastal
locations, with some pockets of marine stratocumulus potentially
advecting onshore after midnight. Onshore winds should keep lows
in the lower 70s tonight for coastal locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 123 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Saturday...High pressure remains over the Carolinas and dry
airmass remains across the region. The onshore flow will continue
a few isolated coastal showers and there might be enough moisture
to squeeze out an isolated thunderstorm over inland areas along
the I-75 corridor and inland SE GA as the East Coast sea breeze
pushes well inland and meets up with the Gulf Coast sea breeze
and/or outflow from storms over SW GA, but overall rainfall
chances will remain around 20% or less. The onshore flow will keep
slightly cooler than normal high temps in the mid/upper 80s along
the Atlantic Coastal Counties, while highs over far inland areas
will still reach into the lower 90s prior to the arrival of the
East Coast sea breeze.

Saturday Night...A few early evening isolated thunderstorms
possible over far inland NE FL or inland SE GA otherwise expect
mainly dry conditions overnight with cooler than normal low temps
again over inland areas in the 60s, while the lingering onshore SE
flow along Atlantic Coastal areas will keep low temps in the 70s,
along with the low risk of an isolated coastal shower moving
onshore, but again overall rainfall chances remain at below normal
levels.

Sunday...High pressure moves into the Western Atlantic with ridge
axis sliding southward towards the region, but overall onshore
flow remains in place, becoming a bit more Southeasterly which
will push the East Coast sea breeze front well inland. Some slight
increase in moisture seeping in from the West as the high
pressure center edges east will allow for widely scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms along the East Coast sea breeze as it
pushes inland and meets up with the Gulf Coast sea breeze, mainly
over inland areas of SE GA/NE FL once again. Max temps still
reaching the mid/upper 80s for the Atlantic Coastal counties and
into the lower 90s over far inland areas.

Sunday Night...Still expecting another fairly quiet night after a
few inland early evening showers/storms with fair skies overnight
and lows in the mid/upper 60s inland and lower/middle 70s along
the Atlantic Coast. Fog chances remain low without any widespread
rainfall expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 123 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

As high pressure ridge axis weakens over the region on
Monday/Tuesday and then slides just south of the local area on
Wednesday/Thursday, long range models show a modest increase in
atmospheric moisture which will lead to rainfall chances
attempting to recover closer to normal levels in the 30-40% range
on Monday/Tuesday as the East Coast sea breeze still dominates and
pushes Westward to keep most of the shower/storm activity over
inland areas, while by Wednesday/Thursday the steering flow will
become light Southwesterly which will help the both the
Gulf/Atlantic sea breezes push inland with better chances along
the US 17 and US 301 corridors, but Atlantic beaches likely
remaining mostly dry, but by Friday with long range models trying
to push a weakening frontal boundary into the region which should
provide enough Westerly steering flow to pin the East Coast sea
breeze along the I-95 corridor and produce scattered showers and
storms for the Atlantic beaches and into the Atlantic Coastal
waters. Overall rainfall coverage still on the spotty side
(scattered) and any lightning strikes from storm activity will run
the risk of starting up local wildfires due to the drier
antecedent weather pattern this weekend due to the drier fuels
(increased fire danger). Above normal temps will continue with
highs into the lower to middle 90s over inland areas and upper 80s
along the Atlantic beaches, with lows in the upper 60s/near 70
over inland areas and middle 70s along the Atlantic Coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 738 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

VFR conditions will continue through the 00Z TAF period. High
pressure will build south from the central Appalachians mountains
and Mid Atlantic states across the Carolinas tonight through
Saturday morning, then build east just off the Outer Banks of
North Carolina. Winds will subside to under 10 knots inland
over the next few hours with few high clouds from the northwest
and then increase from the east Saturday to 8-12 knots after
14Z and spread inland with the progressive Atlantic seabreeze
up to 10-14 knots and gusting to 15-20 knots inland and 20-25
knots at the coast with few to scattered clouds 5.0 kft under
some increase in high level clouds from the northwest.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1145 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

High pressure building southeastward from the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley will wedge down the southeastern seaboard this afternoon,
resulting in strengthening east-northeasterly winds this afternoon.
Small Craft should Exercise Caution this afternoon throughout our
local waters, as winds increase to 15-20 knots. Seas of 3-5 feet
will prevail both near shore and offshore through the weekend.

High pressure center will pivot east-southeastward this weekend,
pushing off the Carolina coast by Saturday afternoon and then
becoming centered near Bermuda by Sunday night. Breezy easterly
winds will prevail across our local waters on Saturday and
Saturday night, followed by winds shifting to southeasterly while
gradually diminishing from Sunday through the early portions of
next week. Only isolated showers are possible on Saturday
afternoon and evening, with isolated showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms early next week.

Rip Currents: Strengthening onshore winds will create a high-end
moderate rip current risk at all area beaches today. Breezy
onshore winds will continue on Saturday, potentially resulting in
a high rip current risk. An elevated risk will likely continue on
Sunday and Monday as onshore winds only gradually diminish.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1145 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

An unseasonably dry air mass will persist across our region
through Saturday, with minimum relative humidity values falling
to around 30 percent at most inland locations this afternoon and
again on Saturday afternoon. East-northeasterly surface and
transport winds will become breezy this afternoon, and these
breezy winds will combine with elevated mixing heights to create
good to marginally high daytime dispersion values at most
locations today and again on Saturday. Surface and transport winds
will shift slightly to easterly on Saturday and then east-
southeasterly on Sunday. Good daytime dispersion values will
likely continue on Sunday at most locations.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1145 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Water levels continue to recede along lower portions of the
Satilla River near the gauge at Atkinson, where water levels will
fall below flood stage on Saturday night. Water levels have also
crested along lower portions of the Santa Fe River near the gauge
at Three Rivers Estates, but minor flooding will continue through
most of the upcoming week due to backwater flooding effects from
action level water levels along lower portions of the Suwannee
River.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  60  88  65  89 /   0   0   0  20
SSI  72  83  73  83 /   0   0  10  20
JAX  63  87  68  88 /   0   0  10  20
SGJ  72  86  70  86 /   0  10  10  20
GNV  63  90  66  90 /   0  10   0  30
OCF  64  92  66  92 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$