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723
FXUS62 KJAX 291800
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
200 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
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Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

The weakening cold front is over south central Florida this
afternoon and will remain fairly stationary through tonight or
perhaps dissipate over South Florida as high pressure builds to
the north of the region. As a result, NWLY flow will continue over
the region with markedly drier air moving over the region with
dewpoints dropping into the mid 50s inland to lower 60s at the
coast this late afternoon and early evening. By tonight a dry
airmass will be in place (PWATs < 1 in. north of I-10, and slightly
above 1" south of I-10)) to settle across the region. Lows tonight
will "cool" into the low to upper 60s to near 70 at the beaches and
along the St. Johns in downtown JAX with light north winds or nearly
calm wind.
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&&

.SHORT TERM...
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(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Dry conditions will continue area-wide Thursday as a weak front
moves south of the area. High temperatures will reach the upper
80s to mid 90s, however with lower dewpoints, heat indices will
max out in the lower to mid 90s.

Northerly steering flow will linger into Friday, although an east
coast sea breeze will fill in in the afternoon, bringing moisture
back into northeast Florida. Rain chances will be limited to
15-30%, mainly inland south of I-10, and some isolated
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Similar high temperatures to
Thursday expected Friday, with slightly cooler coastal temps due
to the afternoon sea breeze.
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

High pressure over the Carolina`s will begin to sink southeastward
this weekend, promoting onshore flow locally. PWATs remain pretty
low on Saturday limiting rain chances, by Sunday they will
increase near 1.5 inches (still below normal). Breezy onshore
winds and an afternoon sea breeze will allow for isolated to
scattered precip chances on Sunday area-wide. `Cooler` high
temperatures forecast for this weekend, ranging from the lower 80s
to lower 90s with the lower values along the coast.

Temperatures will slowly heat back up during the work week with
daily afternoon scattered rain/thunderstorm chances.
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&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 122 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Mainly VFR conditions prevail through the period. Patchy fog may
develop near VQQ between 09-11Z but confidence is low that it
will cause restrictions. Northwesterly winds between 5-10 kts
with some higher gusts thru 22z. Light winds overnight as high
pressure builds into the region. North-northeast winds increase
a couple hours after sunrise tomorrow to about 5 to 8 knots
Thursday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
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Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

High pressure builds northwest of the region. The high will build
north of the waters into Thursday, then begin to shift northeast
of the area into Friday. Onshore easterly winds increase into the
weekend as high pressure builds offshore of the mid- Atlantic
coast.

Rip Currents: Low risk of rip currents at area beaches through
tonight. Increase to moderate risk for the later part of Thursday
afternoon as winds become more onshore.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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AMG  63  88  64  88 /   0  10   0  10
SSI  70  88  72  84 /   0  10   0  10
JAX  66  91  69  89 /   0  10   0  10
SGJ  70  89  72  88 /   0  10   0  10
GNV  66  94  67  92 /   0  10   0  20
OCF  66  95  68  94 /   0  10   0  30
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&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$