-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
928
FXUS62 KJAX 261437
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1037 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1033 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

No major forecast updates this morning.

Slight chance for rain was broadened along the I-95 corridor late
this afternoon; however, thunderstorm risk is low given the combo
effect of increasing subsidence and a drying airmass aloft.
Despite the less favorable atmosphere, enough low level moisture
will be available to squeeze out a few showers along the colliding
sea breezes, generally along and west of the the St Johns
River/I-95 corridor. Temperatures will be as hot as yesterday with
a few locations adding another degrees or two to make a push into
the mid 90s. Heat index will peak around 99-103F this afternoon.


For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
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&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

With calm winds and clear skies, patchy to areas of fog expected
early this morning, especially over inland southeast GA. Fog should
dissipate by about 8 AM.

Weak surface high pressure ridge will continue to stay south of the
area today while drifting south. Aloft, increased mid to upper
level ridging builds in from the west. For Today, mostly sunny to
occasional partly cloudy skies and above seasonal temps (about 6 deg
above) in the lower to mid 90s are expected. Record high is possible
at Craig Airport today. Heat indices will rise to about 100-102 in
several areas, mainly eastern zones. There appears to be enough
moisture, with PWATS near 1.6 inches, over the eastern zones later
this afternoon and early evening for isolated showers and storms.
This convection should be relatively brief given the convection will
be hindered by dry air aloft. Main area of POPs near 15-20 percent
is just west of I-95 to about Highway 301 and timing from about 4 PM
to 9 PM. This latter area is where the Atlantic sea breeze is
expected to push inland late today.

Tonight, an isolated shower or storm in the evening as mentioned
above but otherwise becoming mostly clear overnight. Possibly
a greater chance of patchy fog over the south and western zones, as
well as low stratus, mainly based on HREF guidance. Low in the
upper 60s to lower 70s anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Ridging extending across the GOMEX sinks southward as troughing
swings through the Great Lakes pushing a surface cold front through
the Deep South. Southwesterly flow develops ahead of the front
keeping the Atlantic sea breeze pinned to the coast. This will allow
for hot temperatures to extend all the way to the beaches. Highs
will be in the low to mid 90s with heat indices around 100 degrees
with the highest daytime temperatures focused along the I-95
corridor each afternoon. Lingering subsidence and mid-level dry air
will help limit convection across much of the area on Monday. Pre-
frontal showers and storms will attempt to move into inland SE GA
late Monday afternoon into evening. Mid-level dry air will yield
DCAPE values around 1,000 J/kg combined with ample instability and
decent deep layer shear creating an environment favorable for wet
microbursts. Convection that survives could be strong and capable of
producing gusty winds (40-50 mph). The cold front moves into SE GA
late Monday night and shifts into NE FL Tuesday morning. On Tuesday,
convection will likely be confined to the frontal boundary and its
interactions along the sea breezes as the front shifts into central
FL by Tuesday night. Dynamics don`t look as impressive as previous
model runs but a stronger storm could be possible along boundary
interactions. Drier and "cooler" air filters into the area as
northwest flow develops in the wake of the front.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

The front then shifts into central FL on Wednesday and stalls
Thursday into Friday focusing convection to areas mainly south of I-
10. Drier and `cooler` air remains over SE GA in the wake of the
front as a high pressure builds to the northwest of the region. The
drier air mass will bring a return of cool morning lows in the 60s
for the latter half of next week. Highs will then range from the
upper 80s in SE GA to the low 90s in north-central FL.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 746 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Pockets of morning fog will erode quickly and be followed by VFR
conditions as diurnal cumulus builds through the afternoon. Storm
chances today will be lower today but vicinity showers are still
possible particularly along and west of I-95 where sea breezes
will merge late this afternoon. During the predawn hours Memorial
Day a bed of low stratus will build from the Gulf eastward. Still
uncertainty if it will reach JAX. Best chances, around 40%, for
LIFR ceilings will be west of JAX and along I-75 (KGNV). Atlantic
sea breeze will push into coastal sites around 8-12 kts through
the afternoon, otherwise winds will be light through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Fairly benign weather for the marine zones with winds of less than
15 kt and seas of less than 3 ft. However, some guidance suggests
sustained 15 kt south winds by tonight, just off the coast, given
the fairly strong land/sea temp gradient across the area. Does not
look like Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) is met at this time. A
similar setup in winds Monday night. Another chance of t-storms
moving into the area waters from the northwest by Monday evening so
boaters will need to be aware of that. A weak cool front moves into
the area Tuesday and Wednesday and stalls to our south mid week. At
this time no advisory or exercise caution looks likely.

Rip Currents: Seas at nearshore buoys are just below 2 ft and
will be close to that most of the day. Dominant wave periods of about
7-9 seconds. Onshore flow may still support a low-end moderate
rip current risk for northeast FL beaches today, while a low risk is
placed in for southeast GA beaches. Little overall change in sea
state on Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Moderate river flooding is still forecast toward the end of next
week. The Satilla River basin remains in Minor Flood stage at
Atkinson and portions of the Suwannee are expected into Minor
Flood stage by early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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AMG  94  71  92  72 /  10   0  20  40
SSI  90  73  91  72 /  10   0  10  30
JAX  95  71  94  72 /  20   0   0  20
SGJ  93  71  94  73 /  10   0   0  20
GNV  94  67  93  70 /  10   0   0  10
OCF  95  69  93  72 /  10   0   0  10
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&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$