-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
960
FXUS62 KJAX 310019
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
819 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 815 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Overall little changes to the overnight forecast. The east coast
sea breeze finally made it further inland over the past hour or
so, and will continue to weaken as it moves further inland through
the next few hours. Otherwise, winds should abate overnight for
most areas with a slightly cooler than average night in the 60s
except near the St. Johns River and immediate coast.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 121 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Drier air in place following the weak frontal passage this morning
is preventing any rain chances today, with lower dewpoints keeping
heat indices a bit more pleasant than days previous across NE FL
and SE GA. Tonight, low temps will fall into the lower 60s for
inland SE GA, mid 60s inland NE FL, with mild lows in the lower
70s along the east coast and downtown Jacksonville.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 121 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Friday...High pressure ridge will build southward into the
Carolinas and increase the Northeast flow across the region as
well as push a drier airmass into the area from the NE. This will
set-up a breezy E-NE flow at 15G25 mph along the Atlantic Coastal
areas which will drive the East Coast sea breeze well inland
during the afternoon hours and expect any thunderstorm activity to
remain widely scattered and mainly along the I-75 corridor of
inland NE FL as the East Coast sea breeze front reaches the Gulf
Coast sea breeze there, with rainfall chances mainly in the 20-30%
range. The onshore flow will keep highs in the mid/upper 80s
along the Atlantic Coast/SE GA, while highs reach into the lower
90s across inland NE FL prior to the arrival of the East Coast sea
breeze.

Friday Night...High pressure builds into the Carolinas with the
dry airmass (PWATs of less than 1 inch) spreading over most of the
SE GA/NE FL region and other than an isolated evening
shower/storm across inland NE FL expecting mostly dry conditions
and cooler than normal temps setting up over inland areas with
widespread lows in the 60s to end the month of May, while closer
to the Atlantic Coast the onshore flow will continue lows in the
70s and the small risk of onshore moving isolated shower activity.

Saturday...High pressure remains over the Carolinas and dry
airmass remains across the region. The onshore flow will continue
a few isolated coastal showers and there might be enough moisture
to squeeze out an isolated thunderstorm over inland areas as the
East Coast sea breeze pushes well inland, but overall rainfall
chances will remain around 20% or less. The onshore flow will keep
slightly cooler than normal high temps in the mid/upper 80s,
while highs over far inland areas will still reach into the lower
90s prior to the arrival of the East Coast sea breeze.

Saturday Night...A few early evening isolated thunderstorms
possible over far inland NE FL or inland SE GA otherwise expect
mainly dry conditions overnight with cooler than normal low temps
again over inland areas in the 60s, while the lingering onshore SE
flow along Atlantic Coastal areas will keep low temps in the 70s,
along with the low risk of an isolated coastal shower moving
onshore, but again overall rainfall chances remain at below normal
levels.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 121 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

High pressure ridge will be centered over the Carolinas on
Sunday/Monday with dry airmass over the local NE FL/SE GA area and
associated onshore flow will continue to keep mostly dry
conditions and limited rainfall chances across the region with
temperatures at slightly above normal levels. This ridge axis will
slowly shift southward in the Tuesday through Thursday time frame
and allow for deeper moisture to slowly shift from the North Gulf
region into the local area which will start to increase daily
afternoon/evening rainfall chances with the sea breeze
circulations increasing PoPs back closer to normal early June
levels in the 30-50% range by Thursday. Temperatures will remain
at slightly above normal levels through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 709 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

VFR is expected to prevail for the forecast period. High pressure
builds further across the area Friday, with near 0% chance of any
convection and increasingly northeasterly winds. Gusts around
25 kts will be expected at all area terminals Friday Afternoon and
Evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 121 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

High pressure will become centered over the Carolinas by Friday
and remain in place through the weekend. This will increase the
onshore Northeast to East flow close to SCEC levels later on
Friday, which will continue into the weekend. The High pressure
center will break down early next week with the ridge axis sliding
southward into the local waters and surface flow will become more
Southeasterly and weaken back closer to 10 to 15 knots. Shower and
storm activity will remain below normal as we head into the early
June time frame.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents will continue into
early Friday, with a high risk possible at local beaches late
Friday into the weekend as onshore flow slowly increases.
Surf/breakers of 1-2 ft at the moment will slowly build into the
2-4 ft range by this weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 121 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

...HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS TODAY, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...

Dry weather pattern will take hold through the weekend as a
frontal boundary will be stalled to the south of our area and
fuels will continue to dry out quickly in this pattern under the
hot late May/early June sunshine. High mixing heights and
transport winds will lead to high dispersions Today, Friday and
Saturday for most of inland SE GA and NE FL. Min RHs will drop
close to 30 percent for many inland locations Today, Friday and
Saturday. Breezy East to Northeast winds around 15 mph are
expected for Atlantic Coastal areas behind the East Coast sea
breeze as it moves well inland Friday into the weekend.
Thunderstorm chances will remain very limited Friday into the
weekend, mainly over inland areas as the East Coast sea breeze
front moves inland each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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AMG  64  89  63  89 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  71  84  73  83 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  66  88  68  87 /   0  10   0   0
SGJ  71  87  72  86 /   0  10   0   0
GNV  66  93  66  90 /  10  30   0  10
OCF  67  94  67  91 /  10  30   0  10
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$