-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
644
FXUS62 KJAX 271812
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
212 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NORTH OF US-82 IN SE GA THIS
EVENING...

.NEAR TERM...
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Issued at 208 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Stagnant pattern over the last few day has started to break down
with the mean low layer high shifting off to the southeast while
the upper ridge flattens and an upstream trough carves its way
into the Deep South. Strengthening southwesterly (offshore) flow
has pinned the Atlantic sea breeze to the immediate coast this
afternoon. With the breezy offshore winds holding off the sea
breeze, hot conditions have ensued this afternoon as temps soar to
the low to mid 90s all the way to the coast, with heat index into
the upper 90s to near 100 once again.

Significant subsidence capping in the low levels will inhibit
storm chances through most of the day until a prefrontal trough
enters SE GA early this evening from the northwest. While the
latest RAOB verifies the strong low-level cap, there is also very
steep lapse rates aloft which will foster a surplus of elevated
instability (MLCAPE of 2,000+ j/kg) through tonight. These
competing factors, along with weakening dynamic, have kept
confidence in storm coverage on the low side. That said, isolated
strong to marginally severe storms cannot be ruled out, with
primary threats being hail and downburst/outflow winds, mainly
north US-82 in SE GA.

Through the overnight hours the weakening frontal zone will push
into NE FL and may trigger widely scattered showers along it but
with the loss of considerable dynamics the thunderstorms are
likely to be isolated at best until after daybreak Tuesday. Layers
of clouds and light southwesterly winds will deter fog
development and keep lows in the low 70s in land and mid/upper 70s
along the ocean/river front.
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&&

.SHORT TERM...
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(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 208 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Scattered showers and storms forming ahead of the advancing
frontal boundary will gradually push out of the forecast area and
diminish by Tuesday evening with drier and more stable conditions
building in on Wednesday as high pressure following the frontal
passage settles across the forecast area. Strong to severe storms
are not anticipated for Tuesday with convective developments
expected to be more inhibited on Wednesday due to the influence of
high pressure, however scattered to isolated formations cannot be
ruled out at this time. High temperatures through midweek will
rise into the lower to mid 90s with overnight low temperatures
dropping down into the mid to upper 60s over inland areas and in
the lower 70s for coastal areas and along the St Johns River.
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 208 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Chances for convection will increase by the end of the week and
into the weekend as prevailing flow shifts to become more out of
the north and northeast as high pressure to the north moves
eastward and brings in a more moist onshore flow for the forecast
area. Daily high temperatures will drop below the seasonal average
through the end of the week with overnight low temperatures
remaining at near normal levels.
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&&


.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 143 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

VFR cumulus and a west to southwesterly wind prevails at all sites
with a wind shift to an ESE to SE direction at KSSI, KSGJ, and
KCRG over the next couple of hours as the pinned sea breeze
attempts to push inland. A cool front moving in from the northwest
tonight will bring potential for t`storms, mainly at KSSI after
00z. Weakening of the front and the supporting disturbance will
lower t`storm chances across most of NE FL through the overnight
hours with VCSH more likely. No concern for fog or low stratus
given the continuation of light westerly winds around 4-8 kts and
mostly cloudy skies overnight. The front will slowly track south
toward central FL through Tuesday with skies clearing and winds
turning WNW in its wake.

&&

.MARINE...
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Issued at 208 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

A weak cool front will slide into the waters from the north
Tuesday morning with showers and isolated storms developing ahead
of it overnight tonight. That front will stall south of the waters
Tuesday night and remain there through Thursday as high pressure
builds to the north. Onshore flow will increase toward the end of
the week as high pressure builds northeast and another front
pushes across the water this upcoming weekend. Strengthening flow
should result in rising seas offshore by Sunday.


Rip currents: Low risk is expected Tuesday with low-end Moderate
risk possible with sea breeze development Wednesday afternoon.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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Issued at 208 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Moderate river flooding is forecast end of the week on the Santa
Fe at Three Rivers Estates, just touching the moderate category.
The Satilla River basin remains in Minor Flood stage at Atkinson
(but coming down) and portions of the Suwannee are expected near
Minor Flood stage this week. Minor flooding will be possible
towards mid to late for the lower Santa Fe River near the gauge at
Hildreth.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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AMG  71  92  67  91 /  50  10  10  10
SSI  73  91  72  90 /  40  20  10  10
JAX  73  94  69  94 /  30  20  10  10
SGJ  73  93  72  91 /  20  30  10  10
GNV  72  93  67  95 /  30  30  10  20
OCF  72  93  70  95 /  20  40  10  20
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&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$