-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
243
FXUS62 KJAX 260204
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1004 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

...New UPDATE...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1005 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Convection associated with the passing shortwave is weakening over
Flagler County late this evening. Skies will clear overnight, with
patchy fog possible for locations west of the U.S. Highway 301
corridor during the predawn and early morning hours on Sunday. Fog
will dissipate during the early morning hours. Subsidence in the
wake of the departing shortwave trough, clearing skies, and light
winds will allow lows to fall to the upper 60s to around 70 at
inland locations, ranging to the lower 70s at coastal locations.
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&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 228 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

With an upper level ridge extending across the Gulf of Mexico,
west- southwest steering flow will be in place, before a cold
front begins to move in from the northwest late Monday. Hot and
mostly dry conditions are expected, with a few showers possible as
the Gulf coast sea breeze meets up with the Atlantic sea breeze
along the east coast during the late afternoon into early evening
on Sunday. Otherwise, the next chance of showers will be from late
Monday afternoon into evening along the northern SE GA counties
ahead of an incoming cold front nears the area.

Temperatures will be on the warmer side, with Sunday seeing the
warmer daytime temperatures. The highest temperatures will be
focused toward the I-95 corridor as daytime temperatures will
range in the low to mid 90s with heat index values around 100
degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 228 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

On Tuesday a cold front will make its way the area, bringing
scattered showers and storms to spread from SE GA and south to NE
FL. The possibility for stronger storms Tuesday afternoon as some
passing shortwaves aloft will bring some instability and
additional lift to the area. By Wednesday the front will shift to
central FL and eventually stalling over central FL, bringing
chances of convection over the north central FL counties, with the
potential for scattered showers and storms on Thursday and
Friday.

Temperatures will begin to `cool` a bit after the cold
front`s passage. The drier air mass will bring a return of cool
morning lows in the 60s for the latter half of next week. Highs
will then range from the upper 80s in SE GA to the mid 90s in
north-central FL. |

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 814 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

A gust front will push across the SGJ terminal just after 00Z,
with surface winds briefly shifting to northerly and increasing to
20-30 knots. Thunderstorm activity at SGJ will be possible towards
01Z through around 02Z, with MVFR conditions expected during a
brief period of heavier downpours around 01Z. Anvil rainfall may
linger at CRG and JAX in the wake of this convection through
around 01Z, with VFR conditions otherwise prevailing at the
regional terminals. The gust front will likely press southward
towards the GNV terminal after 01Z, with a brief wind shift to
northerly around 10 knots expected through around 02Z. VFR
conditions should prevail at the regional terminals through at
least 06Z. MVFR to IFR conditions are then expected to develop
after 07Z through around sunrise at GNV and VQQ. VFR conditions
should then prevail after 13Z. Outside of thunderstorm activity,
variable winds of 5-10 knots through around 02Z will diminish
overnight, with west-northwesterly surface winds of 5-10 knots
resuming towards 14Z. The Atlantic sea breeze boundary will then
push onshore before noon on Sunday, with surface winds shifting to
easterly around 10 knots at SGJ after 16Z and southeasterly around
10 knots at SSI after 18Z. These onshore winds will then progress
inland across the Duval County terminals by 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 228 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

.MARINE...Tranquil boating conditions are expected through the
weekend with high pressure in the area and prevailing offshore flow.
Afternoon sea breeze development is anticipated each afternoon. The
main concern will be the potential for thunderstorms mainly during
the early evening hours tonight which could contain strong winds.
Storm chances lessen Sunday and Monday before being renewed by an
incoming cold front Tuesday.

RIP CURRENTS...Moderate risk continues through Monday due to
increased crowds at area beaches. Despite low surf (less than 2
feet) and weak swell, rip currents are still possible especially
near piers and jetties.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 200 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Moderate river flooding due to `backwater` is forecast to begin
next week from Thursday to Friday for the Santa Fe at Three Rivers
Estates (lower Santa Fe basin). The Satilla River basin remains
in Minor Flood stage and portions of the Suwannee are expected to
rise into Minor Flood stage by early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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AMG  69  94  71  92 /  10  10  10  30
SSI  73  91  74  91 /  40  10   0  10
JAX  70  95  71  94 /  70  10   0  10
SGJ  73  92  73  93 /  70  10   0   0
GNV  70  95  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
OCF  69  96  69  94 /   0   0  10   0
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$