-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
961
FXUS62 KJAX 250540
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
140 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 807 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Main update to the forecast this evening was with respect to POPs
across the area - mainly for more eastern GA counties and
Nassau/Duval in FL. A few t`storms have popped up in these areas
thanks to the combination of the east coast sea breeze, outflow
from storms to the north, and a shortwave passing overhead aloft.
A few isolated showers also linger at this hour along the sea
breeze boundary inland. Activity will start to weaken and/or move
offshore over the next few hours with the loss of daytime
heating. Otherwise, a mild night with temps in the upper 60s to
low 70s.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 232 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

A shortwave trough aloft, sea-breeze convergence and temperatures
in the low to mid 90s today provide some chances of early to late
evening showers and thunderstorms for the area. Chances are
highest for SE GA at 10 to 25 percent with some lower values in NE
FL hanging in at 10 to 15 percent around the highway 301
corridor. Partly cloudy skies with overnight lows in the upper 60s
to low 70s staying slightly warmer along the coast.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 232 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Upper ridge will extend across the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. A
Surface ridge axis over South Florida on Saturday will extend
northward, as far north as central FL by Sunday with W/NW steering
flow in place. Widely scattered showers and storms are forecast
across SE GA as an upper shortwave moves over the region. Isolated
showers and storms will be possible for inland NE FL by early
Saturday evening as potential outflow boundary from SE GA shifts
southward while late inland moving east coast sea breeze collision
along the I-95 corridor late Saturday. Otherwise, it will remain
hot and dry. West coast sea breeze will be dominate, with the
hottest daytime temperatures focused toward the I-95 corridor each
afternoon as high temperatures range in the low to mid 90s with
heat index values around 100 degrees. Drier conditions expected on
Sunday with a few showers over SE GA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 232 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

The start of the upcoming week will bring dry weather to most of
the area, with northern SE GA seeing the potential for scattered
showers and storms from late Monday afternoon and into the evening
ahead of a cold front from the west. By Tuesday, the front is
expected to move through, bringing scattered showers and storms to
spread from SE GA and south to NE FL. By Wednesday/Thursday, with
the front stalling over central FL, north central FL counties
will see the potential for scattered showers and storms. High
pressure will then begin to build into the region on Friday.

Temperatures will begin to `cool` a bit after the cold front`s
passage, going from the mid 90s on Monday, down to the upper 80s
and low 90s by Friday, with warmer temperatures across north
central Florida.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Brief period of low flight conditions around VQQ early this morning,
otherwise prevailing VFR. During the day today, a few showers and
thunderstorms are expected, and enough confidence to include a
PROB30 group late afternoon into the evening hours. The activity
will likely linger through late evening and the shift offshore
near and after midnight. Highest chances generally north of SGJ
through JAX Metro TAFs to SSI, and lesser chances around GNV. Did
not get too detailed in the PROB30 group being this far out from
the forecast. Light winds will become westerly by mid morning,
with Atlantic sea breeze moving through SGJ, CRG, and SSI this
aftn.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

High pressure remains over the local waters for the most part
into the weekend with bouts of local low pressure caused by the
sea-breeze. Slight chance of showers and storms today and Saturday
with the highest chance in the evening both days around 20%. A
cold front looks to move through the area Tuesday morning through
Wednesday increasing showers and storm chances to 20-30% over the
local waters.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk today. For Saturday, Moderate Risk
for NE FL beaches and Low risk for SE GA beaches.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 200 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Moderate river flooding is forecast next due to `backwater` is
forecast to begin sometime Friday for the Santa Fe at Three
Rivers Estates (lower Santa Fe basin). The Satilla River basin
remains in Minor Flood stage and portions of the Suwannee are
expected to rise into Minor Flood stage by early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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AMG  92  71  95  72 /  30  10  20   0
SSI  90  73  90  74 /  20  10  10   0
JAX  94  71  95  72 /  30  10  10   0
SGJ  93  72  93  73 /  20  10  10   0
GNV  92  69  94  68 /  30   0  10   0
OCF  93  70  94  70 /  20   0  10   0
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$