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FXUS63 KJKL 030355 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1155 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-- Changed Discussion --
- Areas of fog will develop into early Monday morning likely
  becoming locally dense in the valleys.

- After a relative lull in precipitation Monday night into Tuesday
  morning, the potential of showers and thunderstorms will again
  increase through mid week, with temperatures trending 5-10
  degrees above normal.

- Temperatures will return to near seasonal averages by late in
  the week, with at least small rain chances lingering at times.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1155 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2024

Updated the forecast to mainly fine tune the PoPs for the next
couple of hours concerning the area of showers and perhaps an
embedded thunderstorm moving through the southern portion of the
CWA. This will likely be followed by areas of fog developing as
the clouds clear - becoming locally dense in the valleys. Did also
add in the current obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These
minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along
with a freshening of the zones, SAFs, and HWO.

UPDATE Issued at 740 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2024

23Z sfc analysis shows weak high pressure starting to push into
the Ohio Valley as a short wave passes aloft. This is responsible
for a fleeting threat of showers and thunderstorms for another
couple of hours. Then, gradual clearing sets in along with the
development of fog - becoming locally dense in the valleys after
midnight. Currently, temperatures are running in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. Meanwhile, amid light winds, dewpoints remain elevated
in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Have updated the forecast mainly to
fine tune the PoPs and thunder through the night per the radar and
CAMs` trends. Did also beef up the fog into Monday morning with
this update as well as adding in the current obs and tendencies
for the T/Td/Sky grids. These adjustments have been sent along
with a freshening of the zones, SAFs, and HWO.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 248 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2024

Shower and thunderstorm activity will slowly wane with the loss of
daytime heating this evening, with weak westerly flow aloft as upper-
level ridging builds over the area. Any amount of clearing will
result in the formation of widespread patchy to areas of fog, some
of which could be dense in the typically fog-prone sheltered valley
locations. With high humidity expected, lows will range from the mid
50s to lower 60s.

Despite upper-level ridging overhead Monday, a weak mid-level
disturbance will combine with marginal instability to produce
isolated to widely scattered rain showers and possibly a few
afternoon thunderstorms, with the highest likelihood of seeing
storms over the eastern Kentucky mountains bordering Virginia. With
sun breaks in the afternoon highs will reach the lower to mid 80s at
most locations.

Upper-level ridge axis moves just east over the Appalachians and
Upper Ohio River Valley Monday night, with increasing southerly flow
ahead of the next disturbance. However, it appears any
precipitation chances will arrive after the short-term period
ends. Nevertheless, expect another night of patchy to widespread
fog in the valleys, with lows falling into the upper 50s for most
valley locations and lower to mid 60s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 327 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2024

Fairly active pattern anticipated in the extended, with multiple
rounds of rain in the forecast. The large scale pattern aloft will
start off with a couple of troughs of low pressure in place over
the western half of the CONUS. One trough will be moving on shore
in far southwestern Canada and the Pacific Northwest Tuesday
morning, with very weak, flat ridging in place between the two
troughs extending southward into the extreme southwestern CONUS.
Another trough of low pressure will be spinning its wheels just
offshore from northern New England, and will gradually make its
way on out to sea i the northern Atlantic. A weak subtropical
ridge will also be in place just off the southeastern CONUS, with
weak, broad, flat ridging in place across northern Mexico and the
western half of the Gulf of Mexico.

Our first weather maker will be the trough that will be moving
eastward along the Canadian border from just north of Montana to
begin the period. This trough will have a cold front extending
southward from it, which will act as a trigger for showers and
storms once it finally moves through the Great Lakes and Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys. We may see our first showers and storms,
however, in the moist and unstable warm sector of the northern
cyclone ahead of the approaching cold front on Tuesday. This
activity will steadily increase in coverage Wednesday and
Wednesday night, as the surface front approaches and then moves
across the region. Rain chances should peak Wednesday afternoon
through Wednesday evening, before tapering off late Wednesday
night into Thursday morning, as the front moves off to our east.

The parent trough will initially move across southern Canada, but
will slow and strengthen Wednesday night, producing a strong short
wave that is progged to break off from the original parent trough.
This second area of low pressure is forecast to itself strengthen
as it moves through the Great Lakes and into New England toward
the end of week. Waves of energy associated with this second
system will move over our area Thursday and Friday, and will keep
scattered showers and isolated storms in the area to finish out
the week and on into the upcoming weekend.

Temperatures will be average to just a bit above average in the
extended, with the first half of the period being much warmer
before the arrival of the aforementioned upper troughs. Highs the
first few days will top out in the 80s, with closer to normal
values in the upper 70s on tap Friday through Sunday. Nightly lows
will be mild and in the mid to upper 60s the first couple of
nights, but should level off at near normal values in the mid 50s
to lower 60s the rest of the period. No real weathers concerns in
the extended at this time, although the WPC is still carrying a
marginal risk of excessive rainfall for our region for Wednesday
and Wednesday night, which is low confidence at this time
considering how far out in time the part of the forecast still is.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2024

A remaining batch of showers and a couple thunderstorms will
die out during the rest of the evening, while clouds begin to
decrease. This will set the stage for fog and low clouds
developing later tonight, resulting in IFR, or worse, conditions
for most terminals for a time with improvement back to VFR by mid
morning, Monday. Winds will remain light and variable through the
forecast period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...CMC/GREIF