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430
FXUS62 KMHX 312033
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
433 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Cooler and drier high pressure builds overheadthrough the
weekend. High pressure then shifts offshore early next week with
temps returning to around normal.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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As of 415 PM Fri...Mid-level ridging over the eastern CONUS
this afternoon is expected to build over the Carolinas tonight
in the wake of a departing surface trough lifting further into
the open Atlantic this hour. At the surface, high pressure over
the Great Lakes will continue to expand over the Carolinas
leading to a calm, cool and clear night. Set up is highly
favorable for radiational cooling, and continued the trend of
showing low temperatures below guidance, especially so for the
Outer Banks. Given currently observed Tds in the 40s and 50s and
no apparant low level moisture advection overnight, pushed
forecast lows a couple degrees lower than the prior forecast
with more widespread 40s inland. Only fly in the ointment is
potential insulation from cirrus overhead, although right now
the only areas this could potentially impact are south of
Highway 70.

The forecast is close to record-breaking lows...see the CLIMATE
section for details.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
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As of 425 PM Fri...Meteorological summer kicks off on a slightly
warmer but equally dry note as ridge continues to build overhead
and high pressure remains in place. Once again, suspect guidance
is running too high on Tds and knocked these down a few degrees
during the afternoon hours favoring comfortable values in the
low to mid 40s. With increasing low-level heights, temperatures
will warm into the low to mid 80s inland, upper 70s along the
coast.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 330 AM Fri...Cool high pressure remains over the area
through the weekend with below normal temperatures and low
humidity expected. Then, the high will slide offshore early
next week with a return to a summery pattern featuring daily
scattered afternoon thunderstorms and highs near normal.

Saturday and Sunday...High pressure will shift offshore Sunday.
Another cool night expected Saturday night due to strong
radiational cooling, and lows could reach the upper 50s to low
60s inland.

Monday through Thursday...High pressure will build offshore
early next week allowing for a return of summer-like warmth and
humidity. Increasing moisture will introduce a risk for isolated
to scattered thunderstorms each afternoon with the best chances
for rain (~30%) Wednesday and Thursday as weak upper level
impulses move through a mostly zonal flow. Temps will return to
near normal, with highs reaching the upper 80s to near 90 each
day, and lows mostly in the 60s.
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&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /through 18Z Saturday/...
As of 140 Friday...VFR conditions prevail across all terminals
this afternoon as high pressure, centered over the Ohio Valley,
continues to build into the Carolinas from the northwest. An
area of very weak surface convergence along the northern Pamlico
Sound, coupled with enhanced low level moisture, is resulting in
a few very isolated showers primarily north and east of the TAF
terminals. This threat is entirely diurnal, with clouds and
precip threat coming to an end quickly after 22-23z. Beyond this
time period, clear skies and calm winds prevail. Airmass is too
dry to support widespread fog, but if some terminals decouple
effectively enough could see some spotty, minimal-impact MIFG.

LONG TERM /Saturday aft through Tuesday/...
As of 330 AM Fri...Mostly VFR conditions are expected through
the long term as high pressure remains in place across the
region. However, strong overnight cooling this weekend could
result in the formation of patchy fog...bringing the threat of
sub-VFR visibilities to the terminals.
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&&

.MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /Tonight and Saturday/...
As of 430 PM Fri...Benign boating conditions in place over area
waters as high pressure expands over the area from the
northwest. Observing a brief surge nearing 25 kt over the
Pamlico Sound in the immediate wake of a weak surface boundary
quickly diving south towards Cape Lookout, but upstream
observations show this surge only lasting a couple hours before
easing up. Forecast calls for winds to steadily ease through the
night as high moves further overhead, becoming largely light and
variable on Saturday. By the afternoon hours, sea breeze
circulations will become the dominant driver of surface flow
with south to southeasterly winds of 5-10 kt expected nearshore.

Currently observed seas of 2-3 feet through the period will
remain steady through tonight, dropping to around 2 feet for all
offshore waters by Saturday (except 1-2 feet nearshore).

LONG TERM /Saturday PM through Tuesday/...
As of 330 AM Fri...Good boating conditions expected through the
weekend and into early next week with high pressure overhead.

Return flow develops Sunday with winds becoming SSW at 10-15
kts. Winds then briefly strengthen to 15-20 kts Sunday night
before returning to SW 10-15 kts Monday. Winds become southerly
at 5-10 kts on Tuesday. Seas will be mostly 2-3 ft through the
period.
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&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Low temps for June 1, Saturday.

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern      48/1966  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 50/1966  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville    45/1930  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 48/1984  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston       42/1984  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville  50/1966  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...TL/SGK
AVIATION...SGK/MS
MARINE...SGK/MS
CLIMATE...MHX