-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
017
FXUS62 KMHX 250608
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
208 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough will reside across the piedmont while a series
of upper level shortwaves will generate multiple rounds of
shower and thunderstorm activity through the weekend. A stronger
cold front will move through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 2 AM Saturday...The flood advisory has been cancelled and
radar has quieted down quite a bit. A cluster of showers has
blossomed over the Pamlico Sound, but everything else has moved
offshore. The only notable change made to the forecast with this
update was to expand the fog for a healthy portion of the
coastal plain and the NOBX. Visibilities could reduce to less
than 1/2 mile during the early morning hours. Lows tonight will
drop to the mid-60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 3 PM Fri...Weak boundary/trough and low pressure will
grad shift off the coast through the day. Main change to
previous forecast was to lower pops more towards climo, with
most of the 12z CAMs coming in much drier. Environment will
still be supportive of diurnal convection with SB CAPEs up to
1500 J/kg, though shear will be the limiting factor, bulk shear
10-20 kt. Still expecting scattered diurnal convection to
develop with best chances likely focused along the seabreeze.
With weak boundary and low pressure over the area, light onshore
winds may support low clouds and patchy fog lingering along the
Outer Banks through much of the day. Highs in the mid/upper 70s
for the beaches and mid/upper 80s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 AM Friday...

 - Periods of thunderstorms through Tuesday

 - Above to well above normal temps Sunday and Monday

 - Trending drier and not as hot mid to late-week

An anomalous mid/upper level ridge will extend west to east from
Mexico to Florida through the middle of next week, with a mostly
zonal flow aloft to the north across the southern US. Within this
flow, several shortwaves originating over the Plains will traverse
the Carolinas, interacting with a moist and unstable airmass,
producing periods of showers and thunderstorms. In this type of
setup, thunderstorms are possible just about anytime of day or
night, and will be highly dependent on the track and timing of each
wave that moves through, as well as any impact from the previous
day`s convection. Each day, guidance suggests MLCAPE as high as 1000-
2000j/kg, with deep layer shear of 25-35kt. This shear/instability
combination is at least marginally conducive to severe weather, and
this is something we`ll have to keep an eye on each day. At the
moment, it appears that Sunday and Monday may carry the best
potential for a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms (thanks to
the potential for higher instability and slightly higher shear).
Additionally, Monday should feature stronger forcing, which may also
aid in the thunderstorm/severe risk.

A cold front is forecast to move through Monday night, but this may
not completely shut down the thunderstorm risk right away. Some
guidance has trended a bit slower with the front, with the potential
for a wave to ride up along the front on Tuesday with another chance
of showers and thunderstorms. There isn`t yet a solid signal for
additional precip on Tuesday, but something to watch. Eventually, a
strong upper level trough is forecast to move through, providing
more of a clean sweep of low-level moisture and instability. This
will also usher in lower temperatures. Some areas inland may see
lows back in the 50s for a day or two late next week.

Prior to the arrival of the lower temps and dewpoints, there will be
a period of above to well above normal temps through Monday thanks
to warm low-level thicknesses and, in the absence of thunderstorms,
strong heating. This appears supportive of highs in the upper 80s to
low 90s inland, with low to mid 80s along the coast. Lows will be in
the upper 60s to low 70s. Near-record warm lows are possible,
especially Sunday night/Monday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 1:45 AM Saturday...All shower and thunderstorm activity
has cleared the coastal plain and we should remain dry through
the rest of the night. It will be a tricky forecast over the
next 12 hours with low stratus and fog at play. Given the light
overnight winds and wet soils from today`s rain, widespread fog
is expected. Confidence is high in all TAF sites seeing at least
low-end MVFR to IFR visibility within the next 1-2 hours. LIFR
visibility is certainly not out of the question, especially for
OAJ and ISO, so have added a TEMPO group for 1/2 SM FG from
10-11/12Z. As for ceilings, conditions will gradually
deteriorate over the next few hours and bottom out between
8-12Z. Confidence is high in low-end MVFR ceilings. IFR and LIFR
ceilings are a strong possibility, especially between 9-12Z, and
confidence is highest in this occurring at EWN, OAJ, and ISO.
Flight cats will improve to VFR by mid to late morning, but OBX
terminals are expected to remain sub-VFR through the period.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 230 AM Friday...There will be an increased risk of TSRA
and accompanying sub- VFR conditions through early next week.
Gusty southerly winds can be expected as well, especially on
Monday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 3 PM Fri...Latest obs show SW winds 5-15 kt with seas 2-3
ft. Winds will shift tonight into Saturday as weak boundary and
low pressure push into the area. Light and variable winds 10 kt
or less expected Sat, mainly N/NE north of Lookout and S/SW
south. Seas 1-3 ft into Sat. Scattered tstms possible through
the first part of tonight, with more isolated chances Saturday.
Some storms have the potential for moderate to heavy rain,
lightning, gusty winds and hail.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 230 AM Friday...

 - Approaching Small Craft conditions Monday/Monday night

 - Periods of thunderstorms through early next week

Several upper level waves will move through the ENC coastal waters
through early next week. Each wave will bring with it a chance of
showers and thunderstorms. A stronger wave, and associated cold
front, then moves through Monday/Monday night. Southerly winds will
increase to 15-20kt ahead of this front, and may approach 25kt for
some waters. Right now, though, the risk of widespread 25kt winds
appears low (<10% chance). Seas of 1-3 ft over the weekend will
increase to 3-4 ft Monday with the building winds. The highest seas
are expected south of Cape Hatteras.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...OJC/RM
MARINE...RM/CQD