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014
FXUS62 KMHX 040705
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
305 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A backdoor front will move into the area today and stall. The
weak front will lift back north early Wednesday as strong cold
front approaches from the west. The front will move through
Friday and Friday night, with slightly cooler and drier
conditions expected this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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As of 3 AM Tue...Latest surface analysis shows high pressure
centered offshore this morning with a weak backdoor cold front
noted to the north in Virginia. Satellite imagery shows a mix of
high and mid clouds across the CWA while isolated shower
activity persists along the OBX and offshore as well as to the
west of the area this morning. Expecting generally dry
conditions with partly cloudy skies through daybreak with the
exception of a shower or two along the OBX and offshore as the
Gulf Stream helps keep some shower activity around the area.
Lows this morning get into the mid to upper 60s across ENC.

As we get into this afternoon and evening a more typical summer like
pattern sets up across the CWA today. Upper level ridging will
gradually build over the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic while a
weak backdoor cold front gradually approaches from the north and
slowly dives S`wards across the area. This front along with the
seabreeze will be the focus for shower and thunderstorm
activity today across ENC with chances quickly increasing after
noon and maximizing around the 2-8 PM timeframe. Coverage starts
out isolated and then becomes more scattered in nature with
PoP`s hanging around 30-50% mainly along the inland areas this
afternoon. Temps generally get into the mid to upper 80s today.

Once again not expecting severe weather today given weak effective
shear (15-25 kt) and weak forcing, though the threat is non-zero.
Despite these limiting factors, 1000-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE would still
make it possible for some stronger storms to develop with threats of
heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and small hail.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
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As of 3 AM Tue... Once the sun sets generally expecting for any
ongoing shower and thunderstorm activity to quickly weaken and
dissipate across the area as instability rapidly lowers with the
loss of daytime heating and forcing remains weak at best from the
front. Much like the previous few evenings a few iso showers will
remain possible tonight. Otherwise upper ridging centers itself
over the area while weak backdoor cold front stalls over ENC.
Another warm and muggy night is forecast tonight with lows once
again in the mid to upper 60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 235 AM Tue...Unsettled conditions expected through
Thursday with near seasonable temps. High pressure will
strengthen offshore through late week with a cold front
approaching from the west. A cold front will move through Friday
into Fri night, bringing drier conditions late week into the
weekend. Another frontal system may impact the area early next
week.

Wednesday through Thursday...The stalled frontal boundary will
continue to lift back north early Wednesday with cold front
approaching from the west and high pressure strengthening
offshore. This will allow rich moisture (PWATs 1.75-2") to
advect in from the west ahead of a potent upper level trough and
strong cold front. Increasingly unsettled conditions are likely
with a diurnal max in coverage each afternoon. 00z guidance
trending drier for Wed, so lowered pops slightly, keeping high
chances inland and low chance/sc along the immediate coast.
Greatest coverage still looks like Thursday afternoon and
evening. Weak shear will limit the overall svr threat, though
an isolated strong storm with gusty winds, small hail and heavy
rain will be possible each day. An increase in heat and humidity
is also likely as highs climb into the upper 80s to low 90s
each afternoon, and it will feel like 95-100 degrees for most of
the area when factoring in the humidity.

Friday through Monday...Cold front looks to move through
Friday into Friday night. Iso showers/storm possible Fri, but
most areas will remain dry. 00z guidance shows upper troughing
lingering along the east coast through the weekend, depicting
drier and slightly cooler conditions across eastern NC. More
comfortable airmass expected this weekend with dewpoints falling
into the 50s and 60s and high temps in the 80s. Still a good
amount of uncertainty early next week, with the potential for
another frontal system to impact the area. Will keep sc to
chance pops for now.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 120 AM Tue... Made little in the way of changes to the
forecast with predominantly VFR conditions expected through the
period. Fog threat still looks to be minimal at best (generally
less than 10%) for the rest of tonight with scattered high
clouds around the area. But, the threat is non zero. It would
likely be patchy nuisance ground fog if it did develop forming
between 09-12Z this morning before dissipating. Even if fog does
develop, it will cause minimal impact to operations.

As we get into this afternoon, typical summer time convective
pattern returns, with more westerly winds in the morning
backing to a southerly direction as the sea breeze advances
inland. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is likely
after 18z tomorrow along the seabreeze and along an incoming
backdoor cold front. Otherwise as we get into the evening hours
shower and thunderstorm activity will quickly wane in coverage
and intensity with the loss of daytime heating.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 235 AM Tue...Unsettled conditions expected this week,
with best chances for showers and storms Wednesday and Thursday.
This could bring some periods of sub-VFR conditions to the
terminals. Sub-VFR cigs possible early Thu morning. A cold front
will move through Fri and Fri night.

&&

.MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /Through tonight/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...Ongoing 5-15 kt SW`rly winds and 1-2 ft
seas will continue to persist through the morning hours before
winds back to a more S`rly direction this afternoon as the
seabreeze sets up. Winds along the northern waters may briefly
become light and variable as a weak backdoor cold front moves
south across the area but by this afternoon 5-10 kt SE`rly winds
should pick up across this area. Winds could gusts close to 20
kts at times this afternoon behind the seabreeze. Winds will
once again become SW`rly at 5-15 kts tonight as the seabreeze
eventually dissipates and the previously mentioned front stalls.
Seas remain around 1-2 ft through tonight. There will once
again be a chance for shower and thunderstorm activity today but
most of the activity will reside over the Coastal Plain and
Gulf Stream.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 235 AM Tue...Light to moderate SSW winds Wed 5-15 kt will
increase to 15-20 kt late Wed afternoon and Wednesday night,
becoming SW 15-25 kt Thursday. SCA conditions possible Wednesday
night and Thursday. The cold front will move through Friday and
Friday night, with gradient relaxing and winds becoming WSW
10-15 kt. Light to moderate NNW-WNW winds Sat 5-15 kt. Seas will
be mostly 2-3 ft through Wednesday, building to 3-6 ft
Thursday, then gradually subsiding to 2-4 ft Fri and Sat.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/RCF
MARINE...CQD/RCF