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214
FXUS62 KMHX 051751
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
151 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front near the Albemarle Sound will lift north this
morning while high pressure remains off the Southeast coast
through today. A strong cold front will approach from the west
Thursday and move through Friday bringing slightly cooler and
drier conditions over the weekend. Another frontal system will
likely impact the area early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1330 Wednesday...No big changes to the near term so far
today with the forecast tracking very well. Convection starting
to blossom just E of the I95 corridor expected to drift over far
reaches of inland zones through the rest of the afternoon.

Previous Disco as of 0700 Wednesday...As we get into the day,
upper ridging over the SECONUS will gradually begin to flatten
and break down as an upper level trough in the Upper Midwest and
an upper low near the Gulf Coast States approach from the west.
Two mid level shortwaves also approach the Carolinas from the
west today with the first flattening and eventually dissipating
before it gets to the Appalachians while the second and stronger
trough begins to approach the Appalachians near sunset. At the
surface, ridging remains offshore keeping deep layer S-SW`rly
flow across ENC today with winds potentially gusting to around
20-25 mph this afternoon at times. While we will continue to
remain warm and muggy, with upper ridging still overhead
subsidence aloft will likely inhibit widespread shower and
thunderstorm development. But, a few isolated to widely
scattered showers and storms could develop and as such kept SChc
to low end Chc PoP`s in the forecast. In addition to this,
there is the potential for widespread high and mid level cloud
cover to stick around for much of the day today limiting
insolation and thus instability. Hi-Res CAM guidance generally
suggests 500-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE across ENC today. With minimal
shear expected (15-25 kts) across the area as well, the severe
threat while not zero is once again very low. Temps will be
toasty with highs around 90 across the coastal plain and mid-80s
along the OBX.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
As of 315 AM Wed... As we get into tonight a brief lull in
precipitation will be possible especially late overnight and
into early Thurs morning as the upper ridge finally flattens
completely and previously mentioned upper trough with associated
mid level shortwave enter into the western Carolinas overnight.
Either way, have SChc at best PoP`s across the region this
evening as an isolated to widely scattered shower/tstm or two
will remain possible. A rinse and repeat for temps tonight as
the area remains muggy and warm with lows in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Wed...Scattered to numerous showers and storms
expected Thursday and Thursday night ahead of a cold front. The
front will move through Friday. Mostly dry with more comfortable
temps expected this weekend. Another frontal system will likely
impact the area early next week with increasing rain chances.

Thursday...Still looks like an active day as upper trough and
strong cold front approach the area. Sct showers and iso tstm
potential in the morning, with chances increasing through the
day with better forcing and moisture ahead of the front.
Similar to the last few days, will be moist and unstable though
weak shear will continue to limit the overall svr threat.
However, an isolated strong storm with gusty winds and small
hail will be possible. PWATs will approach 2 inches for most of
the area, so moderate to locally heavy rain also possible. An
increase in heat and humidity is also likely as highs climb into
the upper 80s to low 90s, and it will feel like 95-100 degrees
for most of the area when factoring in the humidity.

Friday through Sunday...The front will move through Friday.
Isolated showers and storms may linger along the coast through
the day, with seabreeze likely pinned in the afternoon and weak
boundary in the vicinity. Upper troughing becomes more zonal
along the east coast through the weekend with weak high pressure
building in, depicting drier and slightly cooler conditions
across eastern NC. A more comfortable airmass expected over the
weekend with dewpoints falling into the 50s and 60s and high
temps in the 80s.

Monday and Tuesday...Still a high amount of uncertainty early
next week, with the potential for another frontal system to
impact the area. The GFS is the more progressive model pushing a
front through Sunday night/early Mon, while the EC is the
slower/stronger/wetter solution. Will continue to cap pops at
chance given the uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /through Thursday morning/...
As of 1330 Wednesday...Predominantly VFR flight cats through
the period with the exception being inland TAF sites which could
see subVFR conditions briefly due to afternoon/evening
convection. Closer to the coast, shower/tstorm activity is
expected to be more isolated and have opted to leave VCSH/VCTS
out of TAFs for now. Otherwise a mix of mid and high clouds are
forecast with CIGs remaining VFR with S-SW`rly 10-15G20kt winds.
These gusty winds will then ease this evening towards sunset
with light winds and VFR conditions persisting into Thursday
morning. The usual pessimistic guidance is showing lower CIGs
encroaching on coastal TAF sites from offshore in the early
morning hours. Another convectively active day on deck Thurs
with iso showers possible along/near the coast transitioning to
scattered showers/storms working from W to E across the FA in
the late afternoon and early evening ahead of an approaching
cold front.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 3 AM Wed...Patchy MVFR cigs may linger across the
terminals through mid morning. Scattered to numerous showers
and storms expected Thu afternoon and evening ahead of a cold
front, which could bring periods of sub- VFR conditions. Pred
VFR conditions return Friday into the weekend, behind the cold
front with weak high pressure building into the area.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 320 AM Wed... Our stretch of benign boating conditions
comes to an end this evening as high pressure remains centered
offshore while a cold front begins to approach from the west
tightening the pressure gradient and increasing the winds across
our waters. Ongoing 5-10 kt SW`rly winds with gusts up around
10-15 kts will increase to 15-20 kts with gusts up to 25-30 kts
across much of our waters by this evening. These elevated winds
then persist into the end of the period. As a result have
hoisted SCA`s starting between 8-11 PM this evening across all
waters but the inland rivers where slightly lower winds and more
uncertainty with how strong wind gusts get. Otherwise 1-2 ft
seas gradually increase to 2-4 ft tonight as the winds increase
with yet another chance at some isolated to widely scattered
shower and thunderstorm activity through the period.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 3 AM Wed...Gradient will continue to tighten Thursday
ahead of a cold front. SW winds will increase to 15-25 kt with
SCA conditions likely for the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound
through Thu night. Will be marginal for the Albemarle Sound, but
SCA may need to be extended. The cold front will move through
Friday and Friday night, with gradient relaxing and winds
becoming WSW 10-15 kt. Light to moderate NNW- WNW winds Sat 5-15
kt. Moderate SW flow returns Sunday ahead of another cold front.
Seas will build to building to 3-6 ft Thursday, subsiding to
2-4 ft Fri and cont into the weekend.

More uncertainty early next week with potential for another
frontal system to impact the area. SCA conditions possible.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
     Thursday for AMZ131-230.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Friday
     for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to midnight EDT
     Thursday night for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Friday
     for AMZ152-154-156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
     Thursday for AMZ231.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CEB/RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/CEB
MARINE...CQD/RCF