-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
532
FXUS64 KMRX 280636
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
236 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1011 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Forecast remains on track as a few isolated light showers remain
on radar across the region. The chance for some isolated rain
will come to an end over the next few hours. The remainder of the
overnight will be rather quiet with mild temperatures and light
winds, although, some patchy fog is possible for the morning
commute.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Key Messages:

1. A few isolated showers are possible this afternoon and evening
near a cold front.

2. Pleasant overnight temperatures in the mid 50s to lower 60s
tonight, then highs Tuesday in the upper 70s to mid 80s under mostly
sunny skies.

Discussion:

Satellite shows an extensive cumulus field across the region, but
with very little vertical development until you get to northern
Middle TN and central KY, along an approaching cold front. The
environment ahead of the front is capped in model soundings, but
weak convergence along the front may allow for some isolated showers
to form. A slight chance PoP will be in the forecast through the
evening. The frontal passage tonight will bring slightly lower
dewpoints, which will allow temperatures to cool into the mid 50s to
lower 60s - quite pleasant for this time of year.  With a surface
high to our west and low pressure near New England, along with a
broad mid/upper trough across the eastern Conus, we will have a NW
flow pattern tomorrow, resulting in a very pleasant day with high
temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s, low humidity, and a
10-15 mph west wind.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Key Messages:

1. Dry and cooler weather Wednesday through Sunday.

2. A chance of showers and thunderstorms late Saturday through
Monday. A little warmer Monday. Overall temperatures near to a
little below normal.

Discussion:

Tuesday night will be the first cooler night in awhile with lows in
the 50s and mostly clear skies. Then expect drier and mostly clear
to partly cloudy skies through the end of the week. The upper level
trough settling over the northeast third of the country will channel
the upper level flow southward from the Great Lakes. Lows will drop
into the 50s except around 60 at Chattanooga Wednesday through
Saturday. The coolest morning should be Friday. The northern
plateau, eastern mountains and the northeast will have lows in the
mid to upper 40s Thursday, Friday and possibly Saturday.

Early Wednesday a shortwave will drop south through the Ohio Valley
and into the central Appalachians by Wednesday evening. Some clouds
will cross the northeast area and there could be a light shower or
thunderstorm. This weak system will move east to the Atlantic Coast
by Thursday morning. This will only reinforce the cool northerly
flow over the forecast area. High pressure will be then building
south from the western Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the
Tennessee Valley. The drier cooler weather continues Thursday.
Friday ridging builds northward from the middle Tennessee Valley as
another low pressure area forms over the Southern Plains. The high
pressure overhead will shift east Saturday. Moisture return from the
gulf increases the southerly flow and the chance for convection
Saturday. Will limit rain chances to just 20 percent Saturday.
Saturday night rain chances increase to about 30 percent and then
about 30 to 40 percent chance Sunday, decreasing to 20 percent
Sunday night. A cold front will be moving into the Ohio Valley
Sunday and get closer Monday. There will be chance pops during the
day Monday too. Rainfall amounts will be light this weekend and
Monday. This will be a more typical pattern of partly cloudy skies
during the day with a chance of afternoon and early evening showers
and storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 234 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

A few isolated showers have moved through the area overnight and
brought a light round of rain to KTRI/KTYS. Could see some fog
develop overnight with the extra rainfall and mostly clear skies.
Any fog should burn off quickly after the sun rises.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Chattanooga Airport, TN             60  83  58  81 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  57  78  54  77 /   0   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       56  79  53  78 /   0   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              54  73  50  73 /   0  10   0   0
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....TD
AVIATION...