-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
855
FXUS64 KMRX 271853
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
253 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Key Messages:

1. A few isolated showers are possible this afternoon and evening
near a cold front.

2. Pleasant overnight temperatures in the mid 50s to lower 60s
tonight, then highs Tuesday in the upper 70s to mid 80s under mostly
sunny skies.

Discussion:

Satellite shows an extensive cumulus field across the region, but
with very little vertical development until you get to northern
Middle TN and central KY, along an approaching cold front. The
environment ahead of the front is capped in model soundings, but
weak convergence along the front may allow for some isolated showers
to form. A slight chance PoP will be in the forecast through the
evening. The frontal passage tonight will bring slightly lower
dewpoints, which will allow temperatures to cool into the mid 50s to
lower 60s - quite pleasant for this time of year.  With a surface
high to our west and low pressure near New England, along with a
broad mid/upper trough across the eastern Conus, we will have a NW
flow pattern tomorrow, resulting in a very pleasant day with high
temperaures in the upper 70s to mid 80s, low humidity, and a 10-15
mph west wind.
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Key Messages:

1. Dry and cooler weather Wednesday through Sunday.

2. A chance of showers and thunderstorms late Saturday through
Monday. A little warmer Monday. Overall temperatures near to a
little below normal.

Discussion:

Tuesday night will be the first cooler night in awhile with lows in
the 50s and mostly clear skies. Then expect drier and mostly clear
to partly cloudy skies through the end of the week. The upper level
trough settling over the northeast third of the country will channel
the upper level flow southward from the Great Lakes. Lows will drop
into the 50s except around 60 at Chattanooga Wednesday through
Saturday. The coolest morning should be Friday. The northern
plateau, eastern mountains and the northeast will have lows in the
mid to upper 40s Thursday, Friday and possibly Saturday.

Early Wednesday a shortwave will drop south through the Ohio Valley
and into the central Appalachians by Wednesday evening. Some clouds
will cross the northeast area and there could be a light shower or
thunderstorm. This weak system will move east to the Atlantic Coast
by Thursday morning. This will only reinforce the cool northerly
flow over the forecast area. High pressure will be then building
south from the western Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the
Tennessee Valley. The drier cooler weather continues Thursday.
Friday ridging builds northward from the middle Tennessee Valley as
another low pressure area forms over the Southern Plains. The high
pressure overhead will shift east Saturday. Moisture return from the
gulf increases the southerly flow and the chance for convection
Saturday. Will limit rain chances to just 20 percent Saturday.
Saturday night rain chances increase to about 30 percent and then
about 30 to 40 percent chance Sunday, decreasing to 20 percent
Sunday night. A cold front will be moving into the Ohio Valley
Sunday and get closer Monday. There will be chance pops during the
day Monday too. Rainfall amounts will be light this weekend and
Monday. This will be a more typical pattern of partly cloudy skies
during the day with a chance of afternoon and early evening showers
and storms.
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&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the afternoon and evening at
all sites, but winds may be between 10-15 kt with gusts of 20-25
kt at TYS. Winds will be lighter after sunset. Fog may form in
some areas, with low chances of affecting TYS and CHA. There are
mixed signals on fog/cloud potential at TRI, so will have MVFR vis
there for now, but lower vis is possible. Tomorrow will be a nice
day with VFR conditions and west winds 8-12 kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN             86  63  85  60 /  50  10   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  82  61  82  57 /  50  20   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       83  59  83  56 /  30  10   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              80  58  78  54 /  60  10   0   0
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&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DGS
LONG TERM....TD
AVIATION...DGS