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037
FXUS62 KRAH 291838
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
237 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move through the area tonight, bringing a
reinforcing shot of cooler/drier air to the area for the rest of the
week. High pressure will build in behind the front and remain in
place across the Mid Atlantic through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 237 PM Wednesday...

Early afternoon water vapor imagery still shows troughing across
eastern Canada with a potent mid level shortwave over western
Pennsylvania. Showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed
ahead of this wave as a weak surface cold front migrates over the
mountains, with showers as far south as southern Virginia as of 18Z.
The cu field across North Carolina isn`t nearly as impressive as the
strongest forcing is displaced well to our north, but a few showers
are starting to develop over the mountains well to our west. Across
central NC however, conditions remain dry with temperatures
generally in the low to mid 80s. Dewpoints are noticeably drier
today with values ranging from the low to mid 40s in the west to the
mid 50s/around 60 in the east.

For the rest of tonight, showers will continue primarily to our
north, but there are some CAMs (primarily the NSSL WRF and the 3km
NAM) that try and develop some isolated showers along the NC/VA
border through 00Z. Recent radar trends would suggest these showers
will remain north of our area but I will maintain some very low (15-
20 percent chances of rain) through 00Z. Anything that develops will
diminish quickly after sunset.

Given dry air across the area, temps will be below normal tonight
with lows falling into the low to mid 50s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 237 PM Wednesday...

Troughing will remain in place on Thursday. Much like today, a weak
shortwave aloft will rotate through the flow, over the mountains,
and into the Piedmont. However, Thursday`s wave will be displaced
much farther south and there are about 15-20/100 ensemble members
suggesting precip across portions of the northern Coastal Plain late
tomorrow afternoon into the evening. There will be very little to no
instability available by the time the wave arrives late in the day
so anything that develops should have a very limited thunder threat.
Similarly, given dry air in place across the area, QPF will be
limited to a few hundredths of an inch or less.

Temps Thursday will be a few degrees lower than today - highs in the
upper 70s to low 80s. Friday morning lows still in the low to mid
50s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH Wednesday/...
As of 200 PM Wednesday...

* Unseasonably cool and notably less humid on Friday and Saturday.
* Turning warmer and more humid early next with with a limited
  threat of a shower or storm.

A vigorous mid and upper level trough will move off the mid-Atlantic
and Carolina coast early Friday followed by a north to northwest
flow aloft into Saturday. A narrow mid and upper level ridge will
move into the mid-Atlantic on Saturday and off the coast by Saturday
night. At the low levels, a cool and dry air mass will move into the
region on Friday morning with dew points in the 40s and low level
thickness values in the 1360s to start the day. The result will be a
really nice weather day on Friday with mainly clear skies with highs
3 to 8 degrees below average, generally ranging in the mid and upper
70s. Lows Friday night into Saturday morning will range in the upper
40s to lower 50s, or about 6 to 10 degrees below average. Expect an
increase in mid and high clouds on Saturday as the ridge axis moves
overhead and cirrus clouds spill into the area. It will remain dry
with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, which is near or just a
degree or two below average.  A light southerly flow develops on
Saturday and especially Saturday night resulting some dew point
recovery. In addition, a disturbance aloft moves into the region
providing a bit more cloud cover. These features should result in
milder lows on Sunday morning in the mid and upper 50s.

The upper level pattern becomes more zonal early next week and a few
disturbances aloft move toward the region, especially on Tuesday and
Wednesday. With surface high pressure setting up off the Southeast
coast, a southwesterly flow develops early in the week and continues
through Wednesday. This will result in a moderating air mass and an
increase in deep level moisture. PW values increase from around 0.5
inches on Friday to more than 1.5 inches on Wednesday. Accordingly,
there is a very small risk of a shower or storm on Monday with a
marginally greater but still rather limited risk on Tuesday or
Wednesday with PoPs generally in the slight to very low chance
range. Highs by Tuesday and Wednesday will moderate into the upper
80s to lower 90s with lows in the mid to upper 60s. -Blaes
&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1246 PM Wednesday...

VFR weather across the region through the TAF period. A weak cold
front will drop through VA into northern NC this evening bringing a
brief period of gusty winds area-wide. Also a chance of a stray
shower around RWI, but areal coverage and confidence of occurrence
is too low to include in the 18Z TAF issuance. Skies will clear area-
wide this evening through early Thursday afternoon.

Outlook: Dry VFR weather likely through Saturday with high pressure
overhead/offshore. As the high moves offshore Sunday, return flow
will advect moisture into the area with stratus/non-VFR weather
possible Sunday and Monday. Chances for rain will also return Sunday
through early next week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Leins
NEAR TERM...Leins
SHORT TERM...Leins
LONG TERM...Blaes
AVIATION...Leins