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897
FXUS62 KRAH 270708
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
308 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach late today and move through the region
Monday night. Dry high pressure will settle into the region toward
the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 930 PM Sunday...

The severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 11 PM for our
northwestern counties. Satellite and radar imagery reveals a well-
defined MCV northeast of Mount Airy over far south-central VA. As
such, the strongest storms are currently along and east of this
feature, stretching from the northeast/northwest Piedmont and
southwest to just northwest of Charlotte. Based on latest trends,
the main severe risk looks to be across the northern and northwest
Piedmont. However, a strong line also exists just northwest of
Stanly County and this is roughly moving ESE. Damaging straight line
winds appear the main risk into late this evening. As the late
evening wears on, it is difficult to say how the storms may hold
together as they track into the Triangle, Sandhills, and Coastal
Plain. Most CAMs have the storms either splitting to the north and
south of the Triangle, though this will be something to watch for.
Certainly convective inhibition will play a role as the night wears
on, limiting overall storm coverage. We do think that the storms
should start to dissipate after midnight as the MCV pushes to the
east. However, upstream convection currently over MO/IL/KY is
forecast to reach portions of the southern Appalachians by early Mon
and could reach the Triad toward sunrise, though convective
inhibition will keep most activity sub-severe until the better
chance comes Mon aftn/eve. Lows should dip into the mid 60s to
around 70, with some patchy fog possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 305 AM Monday...

Aloft, a s/w should track through SC Tue then out over the Atlantic
Tue night as the base of the trough moves over central NC. Meanwhile
at the surface, the cold front should be over the NC Piedmont by
daybreak Tue, then continue eastward through the area through the
day and offshore Tue night. Expect NW flow in the wake of the front
Tue, however the arrival of cooler air may be delayed until Tue
night. Cannot rule out a shower/storm over the southern/central
Coastal Plain on Tue ahead of the cold front, but that activity will
move out with the passage of the front and dry weather is expected
area-wide Tue night. Highs Tue should generally range from low/mid
80s north and northwest to upper 80s south and southeast. Lows Tue
night will depend on the arrival of cooler air, but for now expect
upper 50s north to low/mid 60s south.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 230 AM Monday...

An upper level trough will amplify as it progresses eastward over
and through the mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. Several s/w disturbances
will pass over the area as they swing through the trough, however
for now they still appear relatively moisture-starved. The trough
should shift offshore over the weekend, with the sub-tropical ridge
slowly progressing eastward through the area behind it. At the
surface, with the cold front offshore by early Wed, a trough may
linger over central NC Wed before cool high pressure builds in from
the west Wed night through Fri. The high should be over central NC
Fri night/Sat. Forecast confidence decreases beyond Sat as model
solutions diverge. For now, expect largely dry weather through Sat
night, although will have to keep an eye on the passing s/w
disturbances for potential precipitation development. Temperatures
should be near normal for Wed, then near to below normal through the
remainder of the forecast period.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 205 AM Monday...

Scattered showers have begun to develop south and west of the Triad
terminals (GSO/INT) towards CLT and are expected to lift northeast
through 09z. Isolated instances of lightning will be possible, but
mainly showers are expected at this time. A lull in precipitation is
expected from 09-12z. A mature MCS is moving through the lower Ohio
and Tennessee Valley and is forecast to track ESE and reach the
Triad terminals around 13z. Model guidance suggest a weakening trend
as it traverses the mountains and have opted to keep only showers
mentioned, but thunder, heavy rain, and gusty winds could certainly
be possible if it is able to maintain its strength into the NC
Piedmont. Surface winds will become gusty out of the southwest late
this morning through the afternoon hours with a redevelopment of
showers/storms, some severe, during the late afternoon into the
evening hours.

Outlook: The first of several cold fronts will move through late Mon
night into Tues morning with high pressure building in behind and
VFR conditions expected through Fri.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Kren
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...Swiggett