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558
FXUS62 KRAH 280730
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
330 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will move through the area through the early afternoon.
Surface high pressure will build in behind a dry frontal passage
late Wednesday through Saturday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 325 AM Tuesday...

A low amplitude shortwave and PV anomaly currently pivoting across
southern GA is providing support for showers and isolated storms
over Coastal SC where a moderately unstable and weakly capped
airmass exists early this morning. Model guidance tracks this
mid/upper wave across SC and offshore by late Tues morning. 00z
model guidance suggest this regime may spread ENE towards the
southern Coastal Plain along effective outflows, but a majority of
the showers/storms will likely remain southeast of central NC.

A cold front, mostly a moisture boundary, will slowly work through
central NC this morning through the early afternoon hours. Ahead of
the front, a warm and humid airmass will be in place over the
central/southern Coastal Plain with dew points in the mid/upper 60s
that will support 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE by the late morning into
the early afternoon. Surface convergence along the front in
combination with the seabreeze interaction will provide focus for
showers and isolated storms, but generally westerly mean wind,
backing wind profile (indicative of CAA), and abundant dry air
aloft, should keep coverage limited and any deeper storms moving
away from our area. Best chance to see an isolated storm would be in
the southern Coastal Plain near Sampson county.

Elsewhere, dry conditions are expected with mostly clear skies
filling in with scattered fair weather cumulus through the
afternoon. Low-level thicknesses remain fairly similar compared to
Mon with a dry downsloping component resulting in highs similar to
slightly warmer and peaking in the mid/upper 80s to low 90s, but dew
points will fall throughout the day especially across the Piedmont.
Overnight lows should fall into the upper 50s to low/mid 60s with
pockets of mid 50s possible in the typical cool spots in the
Piedmont.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 150 AM Tuesday...

An upper level trough will amplify as it shifts eastward into the
mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. A couple of shortwaves will move through
the area as they traverse the base of the upper trough, one early
Wed, the other Wed night/early Thu. At the surface, the cold front
should finally be east of central NC and offshore by Wed morning,
however a lee trough may briefly develop in the wake of the front
over the area during the day Wed. A dry, reinforcing cold front
should move through Wed night, pushing the trough offshore as cool
high pressure ridges in from the WNW. Highs Wed should be a category
or two below normal, ranging from mid 70s north to low/mid 80s
south. Lows Wed night in the low 50s north to around 60 degrees
south expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 210 AM Tuesday...

The upper level trough will amplify as a strong s/w swings through
the northern mid-Atlantic/Northeast US, with the parent trough
progressing eastward through the mid-Atlantic and Carolinas Thu/Thu
night. The trough should shift east and offshore on Fri, with the
sub-tropical ridge progressing eastward toward the region through
Fri night. The ridge will slowly progress eastward through the area
Sat/Sat night. Meanwhile to the west, a s/w trough will move
eastward through the MS Valley Fri night/Sat, then continue eastward
through the OH Valley and mid-Atlantic Sat night/Sun. Another s/w
will follow behind it, however the model guidance varies wrt timing
and track. At the surface, cool high pressure will gradually
progress esewd through the Great Lakes and OH Valley Thu/Fri, then
slide sewd through the mid-Atlantic/Carolinas and offshore Sat/Sat
night. As the high continues to drift eastward over the Atlantic,
southerly return flow will once again advect warm, moist air into
the area through early next week. For now, expect largely dry
weather through Sat night, with chances for precipitation returning
for Sun and Mon. Temperatures should be near to below normal through
the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 155 AM Tuesday...

RWI will likely bounce around between 2-3SM while thin cirrus
spreads in from the southwest. Timing the upper level clouds to move
out to TEMPO LIFR fog given recent observations and saturated ground
from moderate rainfall yesterday afternoon. Latest guidance shows a
tongue of patchy fog and low stratus developing over upstate SC into
the southern Piedmont of NC towards daybreak, but should remain
south of the Triad terminals (GSO/INT) as dew points have already
dropped into the low/mid 60s. A cold front will move through the
area through the early morning hours with a NW wind shift at all
terminals by 13z. Surface winds will increase to around 10 kts with
gusts up to 15-20 kts possible during the afternoon. Showers and
isolated storms may form along the seabreeze this afternoon, but
should remain southeast of FAY.

Outlook: Mostly VFR conditions should persist through Saturday as
dry high pressure wedges in.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Swiggett
NEAR TERM...Swiggett
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...Swiggett/Green