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489
FXUS61 KRLX 260649
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
249 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Showers and storms through Memorial Day weekend in response to a
cold front. Damaging wind gusts, hail, and locally heavy downpours
will be possible.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 248 AM Sunday...

Key Points:

 * Hot and humid today.
 * Enhanced risk for severe storms NE Kentucky through tonight.
 * Slight risk for severe storms rest of the area, except NE
   mountains through tonight.
 * Slight risk for excessive rainfall over the southern two
   thirds of the area through tonight.

Widespread river valley dense fog will gradually dissipate early
this morning.

Frontal boundary, oriented west to east across our north, lifts
north as a warm front this morning, leaving the area under a warm
sector of an approaching cold front. Winds increase from the
southwest, bringing strong moisture advection with boundary layer
theta-e values exceeding 340K by this afternoon. A mid level
shortwave crosses the area this afternoon, providing upper forcing
to enhance convection.

Local bufkit soundings show a tall/skinny CAPE signature with dry
air at the mid levels by this afternoon. Guidance suggest deep
layered shear will limited over most parts of the area, except far
west across NE KY where values of 50 to 60 knots are anticipated.
These ingredients will allow for strong to severe updrafts
/downdrafts, the strongest; farther west where the best dynamics
will be present. With PWATs increasing from 1.3 to 1.7 inches by
this evening, very heavy downpours are likely, some capable to
produce flash flooding. Hi-res CAMs suggest a strong line of
convection arriving to the Tri-state area (OH/KY/WV) around 3 PM
spreading east as some elements weaken. A second batch of
convection is forecasted right behind it, but it seems to weaken
as well as the reach NE KY and portions of the Mid Ohio valley.
However, strong to severe storms may be able to survive and
spread east further into WV with the passing of another upper
level shortwave around midnight as convective parameters become
more active, with deep layered shear increasing to 55 knots,
PWATs around 1.7 inches and CAPE about 1200 J/Kg.

SPC maintains an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms over NE
KY, a slight risk roughly across the rest of the area, except
for the northern mountains through tonight. Therefore, expecting
scattered to possibly numerous severe storms around the Tri-
State area this afternoon and evening, with damaging gusty wind,
large hail, and the possibility of tornadoes being the main
threats.

WPC has a slight risk for excessive rainfall across the
southern two thirds of the area, and a marginal risk across the
northern third. This translates to the possibility of very heavy
rain and associated flash flooding.

Despite clouds and convection expected, highs will manage to reach
the mid to upper 80s across the lowlands, ranging into the lower 70s
across the higher elevations of our northeast mountains. Lows
tonight will generally be in the 60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1150 AM Saturday...

Showers and thunderstorms remain likely Sunday night and into Monday
morning with waves of shortwave energy approaching from the west.
The strength and timing of any thunderstorms overnight still remains
questionable. Most models show storms weakening as they approach
West Virginia from the west, likely due to a lack of instability.
Some thunderstorms may be capable of bringing damaging winds and
hail, particularly across northeast Kentucky and far southern Ohio,
where instability will be a little more favorable. Severe potential
is more questionable across West Virgina. Nonetheless, the
atmosphere will still have plenty of moisture with PWAT values
likely to be anywhere from 1.25-1.75 inches late Sunday night and
into Monday morning. Therefore, we are concerned about the threat of
flooding, especially in training showers/thunderstorms and locations
where the ground has been saturated from previous activity. The
Weather Prediction Center places much of the region in a slight risk
of excessive rainfall through 12Z Monday morning, which increases
our concern for potential high water issues.

A cold front will sweep through from the west Monday afternoon.
Ahead of the front will be scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Therefore, the potential for flooding will continue into Monday. The
Memorial Day holiday shouldn`t be a complete washout, but it will be
a good idea to keep an eye to the sky and stay up to date with the
latest forecast. Mid-level drier air will funnel in from the west
behind the cold front Monday evening, which should help curb the
flooding threat.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain possible Tuesday as
an upper-level low spins over the Northeast. The flooding threat for
Tuesday and Wednesday looks low at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1150 AM Saturday...

Showers will remain in the forecast Wednesday, but drier weather
should build into the area from Thursday onward as high pressure
expands into the middle Ohio Valley. Temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday will be much cooler than what we have seen recently. Highs
will only be in the upper 60s in the mountains to the 70s in the
lowlands. Temperatures should gradually warm back into the 80s again
by next weekend as high pressure slides to the east and a southerly
flow returns.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 140 AM Sunday...

Ongoing convection producing IFR/LIFR conditions at CKB and EKN
through at least 09Z. Once this convection moves east, IFR/LIFR
dense fog is expected to develop along river valleys to affect
mainly EKN, CKB, and PKB during from 09-12Z. Valley fog may be
too shallow to reach CRW and BKW. Any dense fog will quickly
dissipate by 12-13Z.

Increasing chances for strong to severe thunderstorms may result
in greater area coverage Sunday afternoon and evening. Periods
of IFR/LIFR conditions are expected along any convection that
manage to develop. In addition, strong to severe gusty winds,
large hail and localized heavy rain will be possible with
stronger storms. VFR conditions will prevail outside
convection.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Onset timing of fog and its intensity may
vary for late tonight into Sunday morning.



EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 05/26/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR possible at times in showers and storms through early next
week.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMC
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...ARJ