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655
FXUS62 KTBW 191827
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
227 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

.DISCUSSION...
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Low level inversion earlier today really hindered convective
activity ahead of the frontal boundary for most of the area. But
diurnal heating S of the front is finally breaking the cap
allowing storms to tap into 3000+ CAPE airmass for possible strong
afternoon thunderstorms over Highlands Co and may still see some
isolated thunderstorms into SW FL until the front finally moves
through later this afternoon/evening. Elsewhere, dangerous rip
currents continue along areas beaches through sunset.

The upper shortwave from the Carolinas into N FL is progged to
briefly stall in the W Atlantic with troughing extending back
over the area for Monday and Tuesday. The frontal boundary should
be over S FL with weak high pressure building into N FL while
residual modest support and moister to produce diurnal seabreeze
showers or storms mainly in the interior areas Monday and Tuesday
during the late afternoon and evening hours.

Upper ridging to build over the region from the SW Gulf around
mid week with surface ridging building along the E Seaboard as
shortwaves move E well N of the area late week and over the
weekend, eroding the ridge while the surface ridge weakens
slightly and shifts a bit E into the Atlantic.
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&&

.AVIATION...
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(18Z TAFS)
Generally VFR conditions all terminal next 24 hrs with occasionally
gusty NW winds behind the frontal boundary rest of the afternoon.
Have left VCTS in SW sites for lingering potential along the
front thru about 21Z when winds should shift NW and more stable
air moves in. Light W-NW winds overnight and clearing skies into
Monday.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Persistent long period swells from the S Gulf are keeping seas
elevated into Monday. A frontal boundary will continue to slowly
moving across the SE Gulf tonight with a few showers or
thunderstorms across the waters. Weak high pressure gradually
builds into the region by mid week with winds and seas slowly
subsiding.
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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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High pressure is expected to build into the region with lingering
afternoon rain chances over interior areas Monday and Tuesday.
High pressure and drier air will finally filter into the area mid
to late week with low RHs and warming temps.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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TPA  76  88  72  90 /  10  10  10  20
FMY  76  91  72  92 /  30  30  10  30
GIF  72  90  70  90 /  20  30  10  40
SRQ  75  89  71  91 /  20  10  10  20
BKV  68  89  65  91 /  10  20   0  30
SPG  78  88  76  90 /  10  10  10  20
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&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

RJD