-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
996
FXUS62 KTBW 182346
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
746 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 737 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

VFR conditions are anticipated for the next several hours before
frontal boundary increases chances of showers and isolated storms
early on Sunday. Models are not in great agreement in terms of
timing, but most bring the aforementioned boundary across the
peninsula through Sunday. A few CAMs bring a rounds of few
showers ahead of the front around 09Z hence why a line was added
to most terminals. Thereafter, uncertainty increases and it is
difficult to pin point where exactly the showers will develop.
Going into the afternoon, and as the system gets closer chances
for isolated thunderstorms increases, especially north of the I-4
corridor. This potential is now reflected on the TAFs. Overall, a
challenging forecast, but conditions should improve through the
evening hours as the boundary exits the area.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A shortwave trough continues to move through the S MS River
Valley this afternoon with embedded vort maxes rotating around the
base producing a series of MCSs along the N Gulf region ahead of
a surface frontal boundary. Models bring this convection into the
N FL Peninsula late this afternoon into tonight with some strong
to severe storms possible mainly over the N Nature Coast. SW low
level flow ahead of the front is also keeping the very warm and
humid conditions over the area with fairly high heat index values.
Those trying to cool off at Gulf beaches should remain aware as
strong rip currents with several rescues reported as long period
swell energy is producing 2-3 ft breaking waves especially at SW
facing beaches and the rip current statement remains in effect and
may need to be extended into Sunday.

The front and upper support is expected to move through the E Gulf
and FL Peninsula Sunday with much needed scattered to numerous showers
and a few thunderstorms through much of the day. SPC continues to
indicate a marginal risk for strong to possibly severe storms
ahead of and along the front.

The upper shortwave is expected to briefly stall in the W Atlantic
with troughing back over the area for Monday and Tuesday. The
front should be over S FL with weak high pressure building into N
FL with diurnal seabreeze showers or storms mainly in the interior
areas during the late afternoon and evening hours.

Upper ridging is expected to build back over the region from the
SW Gulf around mid week while surface high pressure and a drier
airmass hold through Fri with subsidence, warm temps and low rain
chances.

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  86  75  89 /  40  70  30  30
FMY  78  92  76  91 /  30  60  40  60
GIF  75  88  72  91 /  40  70  30  40
SRQ  77  88  75  90 /  30  70  30  30
BKV  71  87  68  90 /  60  70  20  30
SPG  79  86  78  88 /  40  70  30  30

&&


.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Delerme/RDavis
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...ADavis