Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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622 FXUS61 KAKQ 301800 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 200 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front slides offshore early this morning. An upper trough will track across the region late this afternoon and evening, bringing an increase in clouds and a few passing showers over south central VA and northeast NC. Otherwise, pleasant and less humid conditions are expected today through the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 925 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Pleasant and comfortable today with temperatures at or just below normal. Highs mainly in the 70s to around 80, with lows in the 50s. A few readings in the upper 40s are possible well inland. - A few showers will be possible late this afternoon and this evening over south central and southeastern VA into NE NC. Rainfall amounts will be quite light and areal coverage of showers are expected to be quite low. Latest analysis reveals sprawling 1026+ mb sfc high pressure centered over the western Great Lakes/upper midwest early this morning. To our northeast, ~1010mb surface low pressure is centered along the coast of Southern New England. The upper pattern has morphed into an omega block, with an upper ridge well up into the Canadian Prairies and western Ontario, flanked by a pair of troughs, the closer of which is digging from the eastern Great Lakes into the northern mid- Atlantic. Not too much change in forecast thinking for the near and short term. Surface high pressure remains centered over the Great Lakes, as the sfc low lifts NE along the coast of eastern New England. One last shortwave embedded in the parent upper trough drops SE across the Mid- Atlantic this afternoon and evening. Therefore expect an increase in flat cu/stratocu by afternoon after a mainly sunny start. Also, as the cold cool pushes across the region and steepens low-level lapse rates, CAMs have continued to key into some isolated showers across the region late this afternoon and this evening. Thinking is any showers would be quite light and likely centered along and SSE of US-60 in central/south central VA, reaching NE NC by this evening. Any showers should be brief with QPF on the order of a few hundredths at best. On the good side, NW flow aloft brings a cooler, drier day. High temperatures will mainly be in the mid to upper 70s. The surface high builds in from the NW tonight. Becoming mostly clear from NW to SE overnight w/lows ranging from the upper 40s NW to the upper 50s/around 60 SE. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 315 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Continued pleasant with temperatures still cooler than normal for Friday. Chilly Friday night with lows in the 40s inland to low 50s at the coast. - Warming temperatures but remaining dry for Saturday. Surface high pressure builds across the region Friday into Saturday as the upper trough shifts offshore and the upper ridge builds across the Ohio Valley. Very pleasant and sunny Friday with highs in the mid 70s and dewpoints dropping into the 40s. Comfortably cool Friday night/early Saturday morning with lows ranging from the mid/upper 40s W to the lower to mid 50s along the coast. While dewpoints remain comfortable, the airmass begins to modify Saturday as the upper ridge crests over the east coast. Building W-SW flow aloft brings the start of a moderating temperature trend, with highs warming into the upper 70s to lower 80s under a mainly sunny sky. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 315 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Gradually warming trend continues from Sunday through next week. - Low rain chances return with typical late day and evening showers and thunderstorms possible both Sunday and Monday. Surface high pressure remains over the area Saturday night, before shifting offshore Sunday. Low temperatures will mainly be in the mid 50s to lower 60s Sunday morning, followed by highs in the lower to mid 80s Sunday. The upper ridge builds across the region, but does break down slightly later Sunday afternoon and evening with a low probability of a few showers/tstms drifting into western portions of the area as a warm front drifts up from the south. The upper ridge becomes anchored out in the western Atlantic for much of the first half of next week, as quasi-zonal flow prevails from the Great Lakes to the Northeast. This will lead to a continues steady warming trend as very warm, moist gulf air is advected back north into the region. Highs climb up into the lower to mid 80s early in the week Monday, and reach back up above normal into the mid/upper 80s to around 90F by Wednesday and Thursday. Lows will mainly be in the 60s. Chances of afternoon/evening showers and storms will mainly be at climo levels (20-30% or less). && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 200 PM EDT Thursday... High pressure is centered over the Great Lakes as of 18z, with an upper trough and secondary cold front dropping SE across PA/WV. VFR with FEW-SCT CU along the coast and SCT-BKN CU inland with bases of 5-7kft. The wind is mainly N to NW 10-15kt with occasional gusts up to 20kt. The upper trough and cold front will approach from the NW late this aftn and evening, and push through the area overnight. This is expected to bring a period of BKN cigs ~6kft, especially from central/SE VA into NE NC (less cloud cover at SBY) along with very isolated showers. ORF and PHF have the best chc (albeit limited) of showers this evening through around 06z so VCSH has been added to those sites. Any showers should have little impact on cig/vsby. Otherwise, clouds clear from NW-SE overnight into early Friday morning. The wind later this aftn into tonight will be light and generally out of the NW to N. Sunny and VFR Friday with a northerly wind of 10-15kt with occasional gusts approaching 20kt through midday, and then diminishing during the aftn as high pressure builds in from the NW. High pressure spreads across the region Friday night through Saturday, before sliding offshore Sunday through Tuesday. Primarily dry and VFR conditions are expected to prevail Thursday night through Tuesday. The only exception is a slight chc of showers/tstms Sunday as a weakening system tracks N of the area.
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&& .MARINE... As of 315 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories are in effect this morning into this afternoon for the Chesapeake Bay and James River. - Another brief N surge of 15 to 20 knots is possible tonight into Friday as high pressure builds in. A cold front has pushed SE through the local waters early this morning with winds generally NW 5-10 kt. The CAA surge lags behind with winds increasing to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt across the Ches Bay and James River. As such, SCAs have been extended to include the James River this morning. SCAs for the Ches Bay remain in effect until 4 PM this afternoon (with winds potentially diminishing earlier). Elsewhere, winds increase to 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Cannot rule out a few gusts up to 25 kt across the S coastal waters this morning, however, duration (1-2 hours) and confidence are too low to extend SCAs to the coastal waters. Winds become N late this morning into this afternoon, diminishing to 10-15 kt everywhere late. As high pressure builds in tonight into Fri, N winds briefly increase to 14-17 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Low-end SCA conditions are possible late tonight into Fri afternoon with this surge, but confidence is low (NBM has 15-30% chance for 18 kt sustained winds and 80-90% chance for 18 kt gusts Fri). Winds remain generally light this weekend into early next week as high pressure gradually moves E across the local waters and offshore. Waves of 1-2 ft build to 2-3 ft later this morning before subsiding to 1-2 ft late. Seas of 2-3 ft continue through the weekend. The rip current risk remains low through Fri. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM LONG TERM...AJZ/MAM AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...RMM