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346
FXUS61 KCAR 291329
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
929 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low pressure will remain over the area into
Thursday then slowly lift to the northeast on Friday. High
pressure builds in from the west on Saturday and drifts overhead
by Sunday lasting into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
930AM Update...Fair weather cumulus spread across the south
while the north remains under a lower stratus. No major changes
to the forecast for this update.

Prev Disc: Otherwise, an upper lvl trof crossing Nrn ptns of
the FA from Cntrl QB will brig intervals of cld cvr across the N
with isold shwrs until early Aftn, after which, skies should
clear as the upper trof moves E across the Can Maritimes. Cntrl
and Downeast areas should be ptly to msly sunny Tdy. Temps will
be cooler across the N tdy thx to Morn cld cvr and mdt llvl cool
advcn while remaining close to ystdy`s high temps across Cntrl
and Downeast areas where downsloping WNW winds helps neutralizes
llvl cool advcn ovr these ptns of the FA.

Tngt, msly clr skies and dmnshg winds will allow for some
radiational cooling spcly vly areas late. Elsewhere, Cntrl and
Downeast areas will have ptly cldy skies from a very weak sfc
low tracking E alg the srn periphery of the Gulf of ME. Low
temps Tngt will range from below avg across the N to near avg
Cntrl/Downeast.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Thurs AM will be a chilly morning in spots across the north with
temperatures falling back into the mid to upper 30s especially
in colder valleys along and west of Route 11 thanks to complete
decoupling. Will have to watch the potential for patchy frost
ovr far NW vlys. Much of Eastern Aroostook expected to be in
the 38-42F range which will prevent frost formation. Across the
Central Highlands and Downeast expect lows to bottom out in the
mid to upper 40s. During the day we remain under the influence
of a longwave trof with a weak shortwave lifting out of Southern
New England for the Maine coast. This will allow the Downeast
coast to see isolated to scattered showers with latest model
suites keeping much of the activity over the Gulf of Maine.
Light NW winds will keep high temperatures in the low to mid 60s
across the North with upper 60s to low 70s thanks to the
Downslope off the Longfellow Mtns.

Thursday night the 500mb longwave trof begins to elongate over
the area as it begins to slide east with surface high pressure
building strong to 1025mb over the Great Lakes. Remaining cool
airmass combined with mostly clear skies and decoupling allows
for temperatures to fall back into the upper 30s to low 40s
across the north with mid to upper 40s from the Central
Highlands to the coast. Cannot rule out isolated frost potential
in the North Woods but temps look to be a degree or two warmer.

Friday is the last full day under the influence of the highly
elongated 500mb trof. Expect a mostly sunny day but cannot rule
out an isolated shower mainly in eastern areas near New
Brunswick. Surface high pressure over the Great Lakes
strengthens to 1025-1027mb which will begin to push the ridge
towards Maine by late day. Light northerly winds continue
allowing for highs in the mid to upper 60s north and upper 60s
to low 70s for the Highlands and Downeast with 50s at the
shoreline thanks to the cold Gulf of Maine waters.

Friday night the longwave begins to feature a cutoff 500mb low
east of North Carolina with the parent low slowly drifting NE of
the Gaspe Peninsula in Canada. 1025mb surface high begins to
drift east over the Appalachian Mtns of Pennsylvania and West
Virgina. Warmer air slowly moves overhead as the ridge axis
nears Maine. Expect lows to bottom out in the mid 40s for the
Highlands and Downeast coast with low 40s across the north.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The highly amplified 500mb ridge works into the Northeast for
Saturday but weak shortwave energy will knock it down heading
into Sunday. Saturday begins our warming trend with much warmer
air under the ridge working overhead. Expect highs back into the
low to mid 70s with mostly sunny skies across the area with
light winds and minimum RHs in the afternoon in the 30-40%
range. A weak sea breeze may extend inland to Route 1 on the
Downeast coast cooling areas in the afternoon by 5-10 degrees.
Sunday a few more clouds dot the area as shortwave energy in
Ontario tracks into Quebec and flattens the ridging. Expect a
dry day with temperatures a few degrees warmer in the upper 70s
to low 80s.

Heading into next week uncertainty exists from Monday onward
with the large scale pattern. Latest ensemble runs for the North
Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) showing wide range from 0SD to
potentially -2SD with extreme spread. At the same time the
Pacific North American Pattern (PNA) showing an erratic
spaghetti plot with a total range from +1SD to -1SD. Overall, it
seems the northern stream will feature several shortwaves
tracking west to east over Canada keeping us on the warmer side
of the jet and allowing for 80s to dominate the forecast Monday
into midweek. Overnight fog will begin to become possible as we
head to midweek with an uptick in humidity. Monday and Tuesday a
few showers are possible especially across the north closer to
the shortwave energy in the westerlies. Next chance of
thunderstorms based on operational and ensemble members looks to
be midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Tdy...TAF sites mainly VFR xcpt intervals of MVFR
clgs KFVE-KCAR-KPQI until late Morn. Patchy to areas of shallow
fog will result in LIFR - IFR vsbys at KBHB up to about 12z. Lgt
to mdt W to NW winds.

Tngt...all TAF sites VFR clgs to unlmtd VFR with light NW winds
becmg very lgt and vrbl late.

SHORT TERM: Thu...VFR/MVFR. VCSH/-SHRA possible at BHB, dry
elsewhere. N-NNW winds 5-10kt.

Fri...VFR. N-NNW winds 5-15kt.

Sat...VFR. N 5-10kt.

Sun...VFR. N-NW 5-10kt.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds Tdy and Tngt will be sig below SCA threshold
of 25kt across all of our waters with wv hts spcly ovr the outer
waters contg to gradually subside below SCA thresholds of 5 ft.
Kept close to blended wv model guidance for fcst wv hts with a
little xtra emphasis on NWPS guidance. Wvs will be msly composed
of a single semi-swell group with a pd arnd 8sec.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas below SCA conditions into early next
week. Wind gusts generally less than 20kt. A few showers
possible Thu & Fri. Seas 2-3ft becoming 1-2ft by Fri. This
weekend expect dry conditions with seas 1-2ft and winds less
than 15kt and those conditions extend into next week. Sea
surface temperatures in the mid to upper 40s extend from the
Downeast coast out 25nm and east to the Hague Line including
Passamaquoddy Bay.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...LaFlash/VJN
Short Term...Sinko
Long Term...Sinko
Aviation...LaFlash/VJN/Sinko
Marine...LaFlash/VJN/Sinko