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218
FXUS61 KCAR 281610
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1210 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track to our northwest in Quebec throughout
the day today. Upper level low pressure will remain over the
area Wednesday into Thursday then slowly lift to the northeast
on Friday. High pressure builds in from the west on Saturday and
drifts overhead by Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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1208PM Update...No major changes to the forecast for this
update.

Prev Disc: Steady rnfl will exit Ern ptns of the FA by mid Morn
as a warm occlusion apchs and crosses from the W. After a break
in shwrs which may feature lmtd sunshine for ptns of the FA
late Morn into Aftn, another round shwrs and possible
thunderstorms are xpctd mid to late Aftn ahead of the upper trof
and secondary cold front, now xpctd to be cntrd ovr N Cntrl
ptns of the FA where upwards of 500-1000J of max SBCAPE is xpctd
with dmnshg low to mid lvl shear. This could result in a
quarter inch+ of additional rnfl with heavier shwrs. We will
cont to mention isold small hail and gusty winds with tstms, but
this appears more likely the xcptn then a rule with tstms Tdy,
with SPC still keeping us only in the general risk category
attm.

Whats left of these shwrs will cross NE and E Cntrl ptns of the
FA this Eve before crossing into NB prov later Tngt. High temps
Tdy will be warmer ovr Wrn ptns of the FA which have the
greatest sunshine tm potential behind the occluded front durg
dylgt hrs. Temps will cool off late tngt behind the secondary
cold front, spcly far NW vlys where there may be a pd of
radiational cooling later tngt under ptly cldy skies and
decreasing sfc winds.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A weak front will slide offshore over the Gulf of Maine in the
morning hours. Models continue to struggle with exactly how much
influence the front has for the region and given this kept
slight chance POPs into the afternoon hours. For much of the CWA
expect winds to shift W-NW with drier air working into the area
and a partly sunny sky. High temperatures top out in the low to
mid 60s across the north with low 70s on the downslope side of
the Longfellow Mtns including the Greater Bangor area to the
Downeast coast. Wed night the long wave trof continues to
hangout across the Northeast with another shortwave at 500mb
diving south over Quebec into Thursday. Another piece of energy
pivots around the long wave at the base which gives way to weak
surface convergence over the Gulf of Maine waters. This looks to
kick off a few isolated to scattered showers over the Gulf of
Maine and may stretch inland by Thu AM into the Downeast coast.
Mostly cloudy along the shore and partly cloudy north where
drier air remains in place. Expect winds to decouple across the
north which will allow temperatures to fall rapidly across the
North Woods and the rest of the Crown. Lows by Thu AM in the
upper 30s to low 40s are expected, while elsewhere generally mid
to upper 40s. During the day Thursday expecting a chance of
showers across the Southern 1/3-1/2 of the CWA while the north
remains dry. Light NW winds will keep things cool across the
north in the low to mid 60s and upper 60s to around 70F for the
Central Highlands to the Downeast shoreline.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Large uncertainty exists from Friday onward with the large scale
pattern. Latest ensemble runs for the North Atlantic Oscillation
(NAO) showing wide range from 0SD to -2SD with extreme spread.
At the same time the Pacific North American Pattern (PNA)
showing an even worse erratic spaghetti plot with a total range
from +2SD to -1SD.

Friday features the remaining shortwave and long wave trof
consolidating across the Northeast as a large ridge begins to
build to the west across the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley.
Given the remaining cool pool aloft in the trof expecting slight
chance POPs with light northerly winds. Partly sunny skies and
the cooler air keeps the highs in the 60s for most but a few
70-72F readings possible in the Highlands.

Heading into the weekend the operational runs from 12z yesterday
and 00z seem to continue the idea that the NAO blocking weakens
and allows the trof to be absorbed northeastward into the
Maritimes and ridging shifts east. However, confidence in this
playing out exactly how the operational suite of the GFS, ECMWF
and Canadian have isn`t high at this point. But...will continue
with the NBM blend since statistically that is a good hedge for
D5-7. This results in a warming pattern and dry for the weekend
with mostly sunny skies. Temperatures areawide return back into
the mid to upper 70s with low dew points and light winds.

Beyond into Monday its dependent on the overall flow and if
blocking develops in the North Atlantic. Operational suites
show the ridge breaking down and the chance of POPs increases
with potentially warmer and more humidity returning to the area.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: Tdy...all TAF sites IFR clgs/vsbys in rn and
patchy/areas of fog, then lifting to MVFR to low VFR clgs in
sct shwrs and isold tstms by late Aftn. Mdt S winds becmg lgt
SW by Aftn. LLWS until late Morn.

Tngt...Nrn TAF sites mainly VFR. Downeast sites MVFR/IFR
clgs/vsbys in patchy fog Chc tstms Nrn TAF sites Wed Aftn. Lgt
SW winds becmg NW by Wed Morn.

Nrn xtnt of fog Tngt is the uncertain near term fcst element.

SHORT TERM: Wed...VFR/MVFR. VCSH/-SHRA possible. NW winds
5-15kt.

Thu...VFR. VCSH/-SHRA at PQI, HUL, BGR & BHB. NW winds 5-15kt.

Fri...VFR. VCSH/-SHRA at PQI, HUL, BGR & BHB. N-NW winds 5-10kt.

Sat...VFR. N winds 5-10kt.
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&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas cont in the SCA range tdy, before
slowly subsiding tngt and Wed below SCA late week. The current
SCA will cont until Tue Eve for the outer MZs, but may need to
be further xtnded for the remainder of the ngt due to seas.
Winds and seas should subside ovr the inner bay/harbor waters by
mid aftn. Went with blended wv model guidance for fcst wv hts
with a little more emphasis on NWPS. Wvs will mainly have pds
arnd 6-8sec durg this ptn of the fcst.

SHORT TERM: Winds remain below SCA conditions through Sunday.
Patchy fog possibly reducing vsby Wed AM across all waters. Seas
generally 4-5ft on Wed with a period of 8 seconds. Seas subside
to 2-3ft by Thu with a chance of showers then 1-2ft by Fri and a
few showers. Seas then 1-2ft on Sat and then 1-2ft or less on
Sun.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ050-
     051.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ052.

&&

$$


Near Term...LaFlash/VJN
Short Term...Sinko
Long Term...Sinko
Aviation...LaFlash/VJN/Sinko
Marine...LaFlash/VJN/Sinko