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409
FXUS62 KILM 280019
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
819 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching cold front will enhance thunderstorms through
this evening. Mostly dry weather is expected to commence from
Tuesday onward as the front pushes offshore after stalling
through mid-week. Relatively cool and dry high pressure should
remain in control late week going into this upcoming weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Have removed inland PoPs for the remainder of the night, and
maintained 20-30% across the eastern 1/3 of the CWA through
early evening as a few lingering showers die off in the marine
layer. A few isolated showers well west of the area should die
off before making it this far east. Otherwise will keep an eye
on activity to the southwest, which some hi-res models indicate
may impact coastal NE SC and the adjacent coastal waters late
tonight.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Strong to severe thunderstorms should move across the Carolinas
into this evening. SPC has area outlined in slight risk (level
2 of 5). Greatest threat would be strong winds and hail, but can
not rule out a tornado. Earlier convection cleared the coast
with a break in convection this afternoon, but atmosphere
remains unstable with very warm and moist conditions. Gusty S-SW
will continue into early eve in tightened gradient ahead of an
approaching cold front. Looking at convective parameters and
model soundings, looks like greatest potential for strong to
severe convection will be into this evening, probably 7p to
midnight. Pcp water increases at this time up to 2 inches,
especially across SC and another perturbation in the mid- levels
should move through at this time which should also help to
enhance the convection. The warm and humid airmass will keep
temps up around 70 for lows.

The cold front should move across the forecast area through
Tues morning but should get hung up near the coast as sea breeze
develops. This should provide additional convergence with the
westerly flow behind the front meeting the onshore flow from the
sea breeze. Therefore expect some convection along the coast
Tues aftn before front exits the coast later in the day.
Downslope flow should help push temps up around 90 again,
especially inland as drier air makes its way in behind front,
but afternoon convection closer to the coast should affect the
temps a bit.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Dry and warm weather in store for Tuesday night through
Wednesday night as stalled front near the coast slowly shifts
further offshore. Lows mid 60s Tuesday night. Weaker downslope
flow Wednesday, but with sunny skies and late May sunshine will
again push highs into upper 80s. A second, dry front is progged
to move across the area from the northwest Wednesday night
ushering in drier and slightly cooler air behind it. Lows in the
lower 60s Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Summertime CAA kicks in behind the front for Thursday through
the end of the week. Temps drop to below normal for Thursday
through Saturday along with dewpoints in the low 50s, possibly
upper 40s in the afternoon. GFS continues to show a wave, albeit
weaker, moving up the coast Thursday afternoon, though at this
point looks better for some increased upper clouds versus any
precipitation. Guidance has come into better agreement of an
upper trough digging down across the Mid-Atlantic late week,
moving across the Carolinas Thursday night into Friday. Given
meager moisture availability, and bulk of PVA north of the area,
have kept pops out of the forecast. Strong mid level ridge
looks to build over the area late Friday through the weekend,
with surface high pressure overhead to start the weekend before
shifting offshore. Slow warming trend forecasted for next
weekend, with strength of mid ridge and timing of return flow
around offshore high pressure dictating the forecast for early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Isolated convection will persist for the next few hours,
resulting in VCTS for the coastal terminals through about 02Z.
SW flow will prevail overnight into Tuesday ahead of a cold
front. Winds will shift to NW late Tuesday morning or early
afternoon at KLBT and KFLO as the front moves through, FROPA
along the coast will be closer to 00Z Wed as the front slows
down. An isolated shower or storm is possible Tuesday, mainly
along the sea breeze front, but confidence is too low for
inclusion at this time.

Extended Outlook...Mainly dry conditions and VFR thereafter for
the remainder of the work-week.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday...A cold front approaching from the west
tonight into Tues will maintain a tightened gradient flow with
gusty SW winds up to 25 kts. The cold front should reach near
the coast by mid-morning on Tues but should get hung up near the
coast as sea breeze develops and pushes against it. The
boundary should clear the coast later on Tues with winds
shifting to the west behind it. The southerly push will maintain
seas 3 to 4 ft, with occasional 5 footers possible especially
outer waters. A slightly longer minimal southeast swell around 8
seconds will mix in.

Tuesday Night through Saturday...Relatively benign marine
conditions expected Tuesday night through the end of the week
and into next weekend. Front stalled near the coast Tuesday
night will slowly move further offshore Wednesday, before a
second, dry front pushes through Wednesday night. Winds
generally 10 kts or less through Thursday night, alternating
between southwesterly and northwesterly. North-northeast winds
develop Friday into Saturday as high pressure builds inland.
Seas around 2 feet Tuesday night through Saturday, with a window
of 1-2 ft seas Thursday into Friday, mix of weakening S wind
wave, a weak wind chop, and a 1-2 ft SE swell.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 AM EDT
     Tuesday for NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...CRM
MARINE...RGZ/VAO