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717
FXUS62 KILM 271955
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
355 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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An approaching cold front will enhance thunderstorms through
this evening. Mostly dry weather is expected to commence from
Tuesday onward as the front pushes offshore after stalling
through mid-week. Relatively cool and dry high pressure should
remain in control late week going into this upcoming weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Strong to severe thunderstorms should move across the Carolinas
into this evening. SPC has area outlined in slight risk (level
2 of 5). Greatest threat would be strong winds and hail, but can
not rule out a tornado. Earlier convection cleared the coast
with a break in convection this afternoon, but atmosphere
remains unstable with very warm and moist conditions. Gusty S-SW
will continue into early eve in tightened gradient ahead of an
approaching cold front. Looking at convective parameters and
model soundings, looks like greatest potential for strong to
severe convection will be into this evening, probably 7p to
midnight. Pcp water increases at this time up to 2 inches,
especially across SC and another perturbation in the mid- levels
should move through at this time which should also help to
enhance the convection. The warm and humid airmass will keep
temps up around 70 for lows.

The cold front should move across the forecast area through
Tues morning but should get hung up near the coast as sea breeze
develops. This should provide additional convergence with the
westerly flow behind the front meeting the onshore flow from the
sea breeze. Therefore expect some convection along the coast
Tues aftn before front exits the coast later in the day.
Downslope flow should help push temps up around 90 again,
especially inland as drier air makes its way in behind front,
but afternoon convection closer to the coast should affect the
temps a bit.
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.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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Dry and warm weather in store for Tuesday night through
Wednesday night as stalled front near the coast slowly shifts
further offshore. Lows mid 60s Tuesday night. Weaker downslope
flow Wednesday, but with sunny skies and late May sunshine will
again push highs into upper 80s. A second, dry front is progged
to move across the area from the northwest Wednesday night
ushering in drier and slightly cooler air behind it. Lows in the
lower 60s Wednesday night.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Summertime CAA kicks in behind the front for Thursday through
the end of the week. Temps drop to below normal for Thursday
through Saturday along with dewpoints in the low 50s, possibly
upper 40s in the afternoon. GFS continues to show a wave, albeit
weaker, moving up the coast Thursday afternoon, though at this
point looks better for some increased upper clouds versus any
precipitation. Guidance has come into better agreement of an
upper trough digging down across the Mid-Atlantic late week,
moving across the Carolinas Thursday night into Friday. Given
meager moisture availability, and bulk of PVA north of the area,
have kept pops out of the forecast. Strong mid level ridge
looks to build over the area late Friday through the weekend,
with surface high pressure overhead to start the weekend before
shifting offshore. Slow warming trend forecasted for next
weekend, with strength of mid ridge and timing of return flow
around offshore high pressure dictating the forecast for early
next week.
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&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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SW winds 10 to 15 kts will remain gusty out of the S-SW up to
20 to 25 kts into this evening with tightened gradient ahead of
an approaching cold front. Wind direction inland will be
slightly more westerly and at the coastal terminals, more S-SSW
due to the sea breeze through late this aftn. Convection
upstream will approach and move across the terminals into this
evening. Looks like strongest convection should cross the area
from west to east between 00z and 05z with some lingering shwrs
into early Tues. Have included prevailing VCTS with a 4 hr Tempo
group to highlight the better timing of the thunderstorm
activity. Winds will diminish a bit and slowly veer to the W-SW
during the pre- dawn hrs on Tues and could see some lower clouds
or showers with front moving toward the coast after 14-15z.
Front may get hung up close to the coast as sea breeze develops
into Tues aftn with enhanced convergence with westerly flow
behind front and potential for an iso thunderstorm or two.
Overall, drier air should begin to makes its way in from the
W-NW.

Extended Outlook...Mainly dry conditions and VFR thereafter for
the remainder of the work-week.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Through Tuesday...A cold front approaching from the west
tonight into Tues will maintain a tightened gradient flow with
gusty SW winds up to 25 kts. The cold front should reach near
the coast by mid-morning on Tues but should get hung up near the
coast as sea breeze develops and pushes against it. The
boundary should clear the coast later on Tues with winds
shifting to the west behind it. The southerly push will maintain
seas 3 to 4 ft, with occasional 5 footers possible especially
outer waters. A slightly longer minimal southeast swell around 8
seconds will mix in.

Tuesday Night through Saturday...Relatively benign marine
conditions expected Tuesday night through the end of the week
and into next weekend. Front stalled near the coast Tuesday
night will slowly move further offshore Wednesday, before a
second, dry front pushes through Wednesday night. Winds
generally 10 kts or less through Thursday night, alternating
between southwesterly and northwesterly. North-northeast winds
develop Friday into Saturday as high pressure builds inland.
Seas around 2 feet Tuesday night through Saturday, with a window
of 1-2 ft seas Thursday into Friday, mix of weakening S wind
wave, a weak wind chop, and a 1-2 ft SE swell.
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&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 AM EDT
     Tuesday for NCZ107.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
MARINE...None.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...RGZ/VAO