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530
FXUS61 KILN 271955
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
355 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will move east tonight. Some upper level
disturbances will keep precipitation chances in the forecast
through Wednesday. High pressure and dry conditions are then
expected Thursday through the first part of Saturday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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A cold front is making its way across the ILN area. This is a
dry frontal passage for the most part, with just isolated
showers occurring over parts of Central Ohio. Otherwise, clouds
will linger mainly over northern counties that are closer to low
pressure that is spinning across the Great Lakes. Mainly clear
skies are expected over the southern portion of the FA where a
weak ridge of high pressure is more prevalent. Later tonight,
isolated showers may affect far northern locations near a batch
of short wave energy rotating behind the Great Lakes low. West
to northwest winds gusting over 30 mph early this evening will
subside to under 10 mph overnight. Near normal lows in the mid
and upper 50s are forecast by 6 am.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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Additional short wave energy will be arriving Tuesday through
Tuesday night on a westerly mid level flow. Model soundings
indicate steepening lapse rates by afternoon as surface heating
comes in phase with cooler air aloft. A few showers and
thunderstorms will be possible mainly along and north of I-70.
Coverage is expected to increase Tuesday afternoon, with
convection possibly continuing through Tuesday night under
additional short wave support. Gusty winds will be possible,
though severe storms are not likely from an environment
containing less than ~500 J/KG CAPE.

Temperatures are forecast to be slightly below normal, with
highs in the low and mid 70s, and lows in the low to mid 50s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Only notable divergence in the forecast from what was populated from
NBM is the removal of thunder from Wednesday and Sunday/Sunday
night. Wednesday will be the coolest day in the 7 day forecast with
cold air advection aloft overturning the atmosphere with a weakening
H5 trough and accompanying vort maxima. The cold air in the lower
levels will be the onus for showers, and while an isolated stronger
cell will have upper support for charge separation, thunder is not
the likely weather type. For an hour or so in the late day it`s more
possible but having thunder in the forecast across the CWA and for
the entire time pops are present seems heavy handed.

Lowered Saturday morning pops as the eastern extent of incoming
precip looked to remain west of CWA through early afternoon.

Day 7-8 Sunday also had removed thunder. Too much uncertainty as to
if precip will occur, potential timing if it does and the overall
pattern that could be unfavorable for deep convection had me leave
thunder out at this afternoon`s forecast issuance.

The coolest air on Wednesday with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s
will see a slight bump on Thursday and be 2-3 degrees on either side
of 70. High pressure on Friday coupled with a building ridge and
increased heights aloft, and ample sunshine will mark the beginning
of a warming period. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s, but then
ramp up to the upper 70s Saturday with return southerly flow, near
80 across the board on Sunday, and low 80s Monday.

Overnight lows in the upper 40s Wednesday night will drop a bit more
Thursday night with more readings in the mid 40s than upper 40s. The
morning lows Friday mark the bottom of the temperature forecast with
a warming through the end of the forecast, following the trend of
highs during this time. Low 50s Friday night will warm to near 60
Saturday night and low 60s Sunday night.
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As a cold front pushes across TAF sites, VFR has returned and
should persist through this forecast. Will monitor DAY since
MVFR ceilings to the west could arrive there later this
afternoon. There may be VCSH at CMH and LCK early in the
forecast. Otherwise, showers and thunderstorms that are forecast
on Tuesday mainly north of I-70 should hold off until after
18z. West winds gusting over 20 knots will subside this evening
before increasing again on Tuesday.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Tuesday night.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...Coniglio
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...Coniglio