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636
FXUS61 KILN 280808
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
408 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Upper level disturbances will allow for off and on rainfall
chances through Wednesday. Dry conditions will then be present
Thursday through the start of Saturday before a more unsettled
weather pattern develops for the remainder of the weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Shower activity has temporarily tapered off across the area,
however an upper level disturbance will bring showers to the
region today. There is some limited instability, however limited
thunder to a slight chance. The greatest coverage in rain will
be across northern portions of the region. This will keep
temperatures cool with highs only in the low to middle 70s.
Breezy conditions will develop again during the day with some
wind gusts upwards of 30 mph.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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Multiple waves will work through tonight through Wednesday
allowing for off and on precipitation chances. Precipitation
will start to taper off Wednesday evening into Wednesday night.
There is some limited instability, however generally limited any
thunder mention to the daytime hours. Ad precipitation begins
to taper off there will be the potential for some river valley
fog Wednesday night.

The cooler pattern will continue through the short term with
lows in the 50s tonight, highs in the 60s to around 70 on
Wednesday, and then lows in the 40s Wednesday night.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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On Thursday, another s/wv is forecast to pass southeast across our
region. However, the airmass associated with this disturbance will
have become much drier such that pcpn is not expected. With FEW-SCT
cumulus clouds, it will continue to be cool with highs ranging from
the upper 60s north to the lower 70s south.

For Thursday night into Friday, high pressure at the surface and
aloft will build east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Skies
will be mostly clear/mostly sunny. The coolest morning will be
Friday morning will light to calm winds (lows in the 40s, but some
lower 40s possible in the usual cold spots), followed by highs in
the lower to mid 70s.

High pressure at the surface and aloft will move off to the east
Friday night into Saturday. It now appears that a mid level s/wv
will move into our region during the day Saturday. This will bring
an increase in clouds, deeper moisture, and thus a chance of showers
and thunderstorms. After lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s, highs
will range from the mid 70s to the lower 80s.

For Sunday into Monday, in a quasi-zonal pattern, moisture will
interact with episodic mid level s/wvs moving west to east through
the flow, keeping the threat for showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast. Under a southerly low level flow pattern, it will continue
to warm to more June levels (highs in the lower to mid 80s by
Monday with lows in the 60s) along with an increase in humidity.
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&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Expect VFR conditions for much of the TAF period.  An outflow
boundary moving through Indiana will continue to dissipate as it
approaches the TAF sites, however have a tempo to 18 knots at
the western TAF sites near the start of the TAF period. There
will be a mix of clouds and clear skies at times overnight,
however expect clouds to be VFR.

Tuesday into Tuesday night an upper level disturbance will bring
off and on showers and an increase in clouds. Winds will pick up
and become gusty, especially for the afternoon hours. Wind gusts
will start to decrease Tuesday evening, however some winds will
remain.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible late Tuesday night.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...