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216
FXUS63 KOAX 220804
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
304 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Areal flooding will still be possible through at least the
  morning. River flooding will be possible over the next day or
  two.

- A slight risk for severe thunderstorms will be in place
  Thursday night into Friday morning.

- Spotty storm chances over the Memorial Holiday weekend, but
  severe storm chances remain low.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Short Range (Today through Friday)

A much needed break from our recent active pattern will bring a
gorgeous day to the area. A weak shortwave traversing the northern
Plains this morning could bring the potential for a few sprinkles or
light rain showers early in the day. Model soundings indicate a
decent amount of dry air in the low levels, bringing low confidence
that much will make it to the ground. The best chance at seeing some
light rain is in northeast Nebraska and our far southeastern
counties. Little to no accumulation is expected, bringing relief
from the excessive rainfall much of the area experienced over
the last 36 hours. A couple areal Flood Warnings will remain in
effect into the mid morning with additional river Flooding
Warnings in effect for the next few days. Clouds should break up
during the early afternoon to bring high temperatures into the
mid 70s.

Zonal upper level flow will make a brief return to the area for the
first half of Thursday, bringing mostly clear skies and high
temperatures into the low 80s. This pattern will quickly be
disturbed by an incoming shortwave trough that will eject into the
northern Plains late Thursday. This feature will bring southwesterly
flow to the area. The disturbance is expected to spin up a surface
low over the western NE/SD border early Thursday before tracking
northeast towards Minnesota. An associated cold front will drape to
the south-southwest of the low and track across Nebraska through
Thursday. This feature will be the focus for severe weather
potential Thursday night into Friday morning.

Convection initiation is expected in central Nebraska in the early
evening before pushing east. A linear storm mode is expected with
this event. Moderate instability will be present with 1250-1750 J/kg
of MLCAPE and steep 500-700 mb lapse rates (7-7.75 C/km).
Instability will decrease towards the east with a noticeable
dip near the NE/IA border. Primary hazards with the event will
be hail, wind, and flash flooding. The Storm Prediction Center
has placed eastern Nebraska in a slight risk (level 2 out of 5)
for severe weather. The Weather Prediction Center also has a
majority of the CWA in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall.
Precipitation will end in the late morning on Friday, breaking
way for some sun and high temperatures in the upper 60s/low 70s.

Long Range (Saturday through Tuesday)

Those with outdoor plans this Memorial Holiday weekend should keep a
close eye on the upcoming forecast. While temperatures look pleasant
through the weekend (highs in the low to mid 70s), several spotty
rain and storm chances will be present thanks to the passing of
several shortwave disturbances. Narrowing down exact timing and
location will be avoided for now as long range guidance still brings
quite a bit of variability in these features. Severe weather
potential appears to be low with these disturbances as we struggle
to transport adequate moisture up into the area.

In terms of more notable pattern features, a deepening upper level
trough is expected to traverse the northern Plains Sunday into
Monday. The CSU Machine-Learning model is keeping severe weather
probabilities southeast of the area as the current track struggles
to bring decent instability to us. Details on the upcoming features
will be ironed out as they approach. Upper level riding is expected
to build into the Central Plains during the first half of next
work week. Temperatures look to steadily rise into the upper 70s
and 80s in this time frame.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1117 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period with winds
forecast to remain under 10 knots through Wednesday evening.
The northwesterly winds now will become westerly by tomorrow
morning and eventually southerly by Wednesday evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Nicolaisen