-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
451
FXUS63 KOAX 041138
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
638 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storm chances Tuesday afternoon (50-80%) with a 15-20% chance
  of severe storms, mainly in southeast Nebraska and southwest
  Iowa. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats.

- Saturated soils continue to keep flooding a concern as showers
  and storms move through northeast Nebraska this afternoon.

- Mostly dry Wednesday into the weekend with highs in the mid
  70s to mid 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Today and Tonight...

Monday night satellite imagery indicated an area of low pressure
churning over eastern Kansas and into northern Missouri.
Additionally, an area of convection festered over west-central
Nebraska in response to an approaching cold front attendant to a low
over southern Canada.

This boundary will continue to trek eastward through the morning
hours, bringing increasing chances of precipitation to the region
throughout the day. Increasing warm air advection will begin to
develop after 7 AM, and could help spark a few morning storms in
eastern Nebraska ahead of the incoming front, where dry low levels
could result in a stray strong gust or two due to evaporative
cooling. During the afternoon, sufficient instability is expected to
develop and strong convergence along the front is expected to result
in an increasing-in-coverage line of showers and storms. The latest
CAM solutions depict storms initiating to the northwest of the Omaha
and Lincoln metros by around 2-3 PM, with those storms exiting to
the east by 9 PM.

Weak shear of less than 20 kts will lower the ceiling of any severe
threat with storms this afternoon. The highest potential for severe
storms is expected to occur at peak heating and shortly after when
instability is maximized, with largely straight line hodographs
pushing the main hazard towards damaging hail and wind (though a
tornado can`t be ruled out in far southeast Nebraska and southwest
Iowa). Cloud cover associated with the area of low pressure spinning
off to our southeast over parts of Kansas and Missouri could muddle
severe potential/destabilization, however at least a few storms are
expected to bubble up this afternoon.

In addition to severe threats, another concern will be heavy
rainfall. While this line of storms does look to be fairly
progressive today, It wouldn`t take much new rainfall to produce
flooding over recently saturated soils.

Wednesday and Beyond:

With the front moving off to the east for Wednesday, we`ll find
ourselves in a northwesterly mid/upper flow pattern with the main
jet streak settled nearly overhead to just north of the area. Rain
chances for the remainder of the work week remain low, but there
could be a pop up storm or two that develops as a shortwave moves
through the flow Wednesday or Friday evening. Highs during this time
will remain nice in the upper 70s to 80s with typical afternoon
winds of 20 to 25 mph keeping things from feeling stagnant outside.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 638 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Ongoing showers and isolated storms to our west continue to
weaken as they push east, so did not include any mention at OFK,
but can`t completely rule out some showers this morning.
Otherwise, main concern will be timing of a line of strong to
severe storms this afternoon. Latest guidance starts it east of OFK
and suggests it could be a somewhat broken line as it moves
through OMA and LNK, so not highly confident those sites will
see impacts. That said, included 2 hr mention at both for now
with 30-35 kt winds, but can`t completely rule out 50 kt winds.
Outside of storms, expect southwesterly winds this morning under
10 kts then northwesterly to westerly winds behind the
front/storms, with a few gusts around 20 kts at times.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...CA