-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
729
FXUS61 KOKX 301956
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
356 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak trough remains over the area this evening. High pressure
then builds towards the area tonight into Friday and will remain
in control through Saturday. A weak disturbance will move across
the region late Sunday into Sunday night and another one late
Tuesday into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Weak low pressure continues to slide off the New England coast
this afternoon. A surface trough has been left behind the low
as the main upper trough remains off the west. This trough will
swing across the area this evening and should pass offshore
early Friday morning. The region will be between upper ridging
to the west and the upper trough just offshore. Surface high
pressure centered over the Great Lakes region begins to build
towards the local area.

Moisture is limited for the remainder of the afternoon and
evening. Instability is lacking, but the trough and cold pocket
aloft may be enough to develop isolated showers, mainly east of
the NYC metro, through this evening. Any lingering showers will
diminish shortly after sunset. Skies will become mostly clear
overnight. A chilly night is in store to end May with lows in
the middle to upper 40s inland and LI Pine Barrens with lower to
middle 50s closer to the coast.

Friday will be bit warmer compared to Thursday with temperatures
closer to average. It will be partly cloudy with highs in the
middle to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The upper ridge will begin shifting overhead Friday night
and especially on Saturday before beginning to flatten Saturday
night. High pressure will be in control at the surface with its
core settling over the Middle Atlantic by Saturday. Surface
ridging should remain over the area into Saturday night. Dry
conditions will continue during this time period with mostly
clear skies. There may be a slight increase in clouds Saturday
night as the ridge flattens and a shortwave approaches from the
west.

Highs on Saturday will be a few degrees above normal in the
upper 70s to low 80s. Lows both Friday night will be in the
upper 40s inland to the 50s elsewhere. Lows Saturday night will
be milder in the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Not much change in the long term and stuck fairly close to the
NBM. Sunday begins with a surface high pressure ridge not too
far offshore and an upper ridge overhead. The ridge aloft
flattens in the afternoon and evening with the approach and
passage of a shortwave. This may trigger a shower in spots
Sunday afternoon and night for western and far southern portions
of the forecast area.

High pressure remains in control Monday into Tuesday. Expect dry
conditions on Monday. It will probably remain dry on Tuesday,
however will continue to carry some slight chance/chance PoPs
Tuesday afternoon and night. There is a chance that a surface
trough and shortwave aloft could trigger a shower or two.
Tuesday will remain more dry than wet. The pattern doesn`t
change all that much for Wednesday, but models seem to agree
that the ridging shifts more offshore. Slight chance/chance PoPs
therefore for Wednesday as well. A cold front slowly approaches
from the west on Thursday, so will keep chance POPs in the
forecast.

NBM was used for temperatures. Each day will feature highs above
normal, ranging mostly from the mid 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure continues moving east of the region, while high
pressure gradually builds in from the west.

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the
TAF period. Mainly dry conditions are expected through the
remainder of the TAF period, although an isolated shower into
early evening will be possible with a potential brief reduction
in visibility to MVFR east of the NYC terminals. Shower chances
too low to include in TAF but do indicate a possible brief
period of MVFR stratus near KGON.

Winds will be out of the north near 10-15 kt and gusting to
near 20 kt, until 22-23Z, mainly east of the NYC terminals.
Gusts then subside with sustained winds becoming more NW and
decreasing to near 10 kt for this evening. NW winds more in the
5-10 kt range for later tonight and into Friday morning. Gusts
could subside earlier than forecast.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Some NW gusts 15-20 kt possible Friday afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday through Saturday night: VFR.

Sunday: MVFR possible with showers possible at times.

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm
N/W of NYC terminals afternoon into early evening.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
A few wind gusts just under 25 kt possible this evening on the
eastern Li Sound and ocean east of Moriches inlet. Otherwise,
conditions will remain below SCA levels through the upcoming
weekend and continue into the middle of next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the middle of next
week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The rip current risk is moderate for the Suffolk beaches this
afternoon, where combo of SE-S long period swells and offshore
flow 15 kt should build surf to 3-4 ft. The rip current risk
remains low for the Nassau and NYC ocean beaches.

There is a low rip current risk Friday and Saturday and
supported by RCMOS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BC/DS
HYDROLOGY...BC/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...