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880
FXUS61 KOKX 310546
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
146 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A weak trough shifts south overnight. High pressure will then
build toward the area Friday, and remain in control through
Saturday. A weak disturbance will move across late Sunday into
Sunday night, followed by another from late Tuesday into
Thursday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A weak low pressure trough lies over the area as of midnight.
Winds behind the trough have shifted N-NW across S CT and from
NYC north/west, and should become N 10-15 mph with a few gusts
up to 20 mph late along the coast and in the metro area, and
5-10 kt farther inland.

Satellite/radar also show and band of BKN-OVC skies with a few
light sprinkles from the Hudson Valley down into NE NJ. Will
have 20 PoP for these in those areas and in parts of NYC.

With CAA kicking in overnight on the NW-N flow, temps should
fall to the upper 50s in NYC, lower/mid 50s elsewhere in the
metro area and along the coast, and to 45-50 inland and in the
Long Island Pine Barrens.

Friday will be bit warmer compared to Thursday with
temperatures closer to average. It will be partly cloudy with
highs in the mid/upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The upper ridge will begin shifting overhead Friday night and
especially on Saturday before beginning to flatten Saturday
night. High pressure will be in control at the surface with its
core settling over the Middle Atlantic by Saturday. Surface
ridging should remain over the area into Saturday night. Dry
conditions will continue during this time period with mostly
clear skies. There may be a slight increase in clouds Saturday
night as the ridge flattens and a shortwave approaches from the
west.

Highs on Saturday will be a few degrees above normal, in the
upper 70s/lower 80s. Lows both Friday night will be from the
upper 40s inland to the 50s elsewhere. Lows Saturday night
will be milder, in the upper 50s/lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Not much change in the long term and stuck fairly close to the
NBM. Sunday begins with a surface high pressure ridge not too
far offshore and an upper ridge overhead. The ridge aloft
flattens in the afternoon and evening with the approach and
passage of a shortwave. This may trigger a shower in spots
Sunday afternoon and night for western and far southern portions
of the forecast area.

High pressure remains in control Monday into Tuesday. Expect dry
conditions on Monday. It will probably remain dry on Tuesday,
however will continue to carry some slight chance/chance PoPs
Tuesday afternoon and night. There is a chance that a surface
trough and shortwave aloft could trigger a shower or two.
Tuesday will remain more dry than wet. The pattern doesn`t
change all that much for Wednesday, but models seem to agree
that the ridging shifts more offshore. Slight chance/chance PoPs
therefore for Wednesday as well. A cold front slowly approaches
from the west on Thursday with chance PoP.

NBM was used for temperatures. Each day will feature highs above
normal, ranging mostly from the mid 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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High pressure builds in today.

VFR. NNW winds around 10kt through the morning push, increasing
slightly thereafter with gusts 16-20kt. Winds back westerly for
some coastal terminals during the afternoon. NW winds under 10kt
tonight.

   NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts might be only occasional. Winds should prevail north of
310 magnetic through the morning, then a chance that KEWR
occasionally shifts south of 310 from approx 18z through the
rest of the afternoon. KJFK should prevail south of 310 after
around 21z, but may occasionally shift south of it as early as
around 18z. Chance that KJFK does not shift south late day/early
evening with a sea breeze.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday night through Sunday: VFR.

Monday: Showers and MVFR possible in the morning, then VFR.

Tuesday: MVFR or lower cond possible in afternoon/early evening
showers or tstms, mainly NW of the NYC metro terminals.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
Conditions will remain below SCA levels through the middle of next
week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the middle of next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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There is a low rip current risk today and Saturday and
supported by RCMOS.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...JC