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386
FXUS61 KOKX 282228
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
628 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front draped over the region pushes offshore this
evening before a second front approaches Wednesday, moving
through into Wednesday night. A weak surface trough moves east
of the region Thursday. High pressure builds in later Thursday
through Saturday night. A weakening low passes slowly to the
west and north Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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Mid level trough situated over the Great Lakes advances east
toward the region and helps scoot a weak cold front farther
offshore into tonight.

Scattered showers, and isolated thunderstorms, continue over
Upstate NY with the approaching trough, but this activity
should dissipate this evening once heating ends, and as CAPE
decreases along with surface instability. Not out of the
question a few showers or an isolated t-storm make it into the
Lower Hudson Valley before this, but this should be rather
limited in coverage. The HRRR showing that some of this activity
does move into Orange and Putnam counties, and may minor
adjustments based on this.

A gusty west flow lightens early this evening, and updated with
the LAV guidance. Dry and mild conditions can be expected
tonight as temperatures only fall back into the 60s across the
region overnight.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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Trough axis shifts over the Northeast on Wednesday as an
embedded shortwave swings through. The cold pool aloft, cyclonic
flow, and advancing surface boundary should allow showers to
develop into the Lower Hudson Valley by early afternoon, with
the activity then spreading east across the rest of the region
mid to late afternoon.

Despite ample sunshine and a well-mixed BL, conditions appear
only marginal for thunderstorm development, with relatively
light unidirectional shear, modest CAPE under 1000 J/kg, and
surface dew points in the 50s. Still, a few thunderstorms may
embed in this activity and advance east into the evening hours.
SPC continues to outline the region in a general thunder, which
seems reasonable given the above.

The front moves through in the evening, and a surface trough
lingers as a trailing weak wave of low pressure passes just
offshore overnight, keeping a chance for showers into Thursday
morning, especially along the coast. QPF from this system will
be light outside any heavier convective elements, generally
under a quarter inch.

Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than on Tuesday, climbing
into the mid to upper 70s for most during the afternoon, or about
normal for late May. A general light flow from the west veers
more northerly overnight behind the fropa helping to advect drier
air into Thursday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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An upper level trough from southeastern Canada into the mid
Atlantic states will be moving into the western Atlantic during
Thursday as a high amplitude ridge builds east from the upper
midwest and Great Lakes region. The ridge moves into the western
Atlantic Sunday with the flow becoming zonal. A weak, low
amplitude shortwave will be moving into the ridge and there will
be mainly slight chances of precipitation late Sunday night
into Tuesday, mainly inland, where there is better instability
and surface convergence.

Temperatures will be near to slightly above seasonal normals
Thursday into Saturday, with a slight warmup Sunday into the
beginning of next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Weak cold fronts will move through the area through tonight.

Mainly VFR. Low chance of a pop-up shower this afternoon at
KSWF but confidence is low so did not include in the TAFs at
this time. Localized brief MVFR cigs possible through early this
evening for KSWF. A better chance at seeing scattered showers
and TSRA Wednesday afternoon after 20Z. Included in the TAFs as
a Prob30.

W/NW wind 10-15kt through this afternoon with gusts upwards of 20-
30kt, though gusts closer to 30 kt should be fairly limited.
Wind decreases this evening by 01Z to less than 10 kt. NW/W winds
around 10 kt continue tomorrow with coastal terminals (KJFK, KISP,
KBDR, KGON) becoming more SW due to seabreeze influence in the
afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers and tstms, with brief MVFR
or lower cond at times in the afternoon and at night.

Thursday: Chance of showers with MVFR cond possible.

Friday and Saturday: VFR.

Sunday: Mainly VFR. Low chance of MVFR with any rain showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
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Westerly flow will continue to occasionally gust up to 25 kt
along nearshore waters into early this evening before winds
subside. This west wind veers more northerly Wednesday night
behind a frontal passage, but winds and seas remain light.

Sub-advisory conditions persist Thursday through the weekend
with a light flow, generally 10 kt or less.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the forecast period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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There is a moderate rip current risk early Wednesday morning at the
Southeast Suffolk ocean beaches, with 3 foot ocean seas and a S to
SE swell, with a low risk at the other ocean facing beaches.
Thursday there is a low rip current risk at the ocean facing
beaches.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DR/MET
NEAR TERM...DR/MET
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...DR/MET
HYDROLOGY...DR/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MET