-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
597
FXUS61 KRNK 291515
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1115 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure will cross the Ohio Valley today pushing a cold
front through the Mid Atlantic region this afternoon. A few
showers and thunderstorms will be possible today with the
frontal passage. Dry and cooler high pressure will build in
behind this front for Thursday and Friday with below normal
temperatures.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1110 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

 - Adjusted location of isolated to scattered thunderstorms
   this afternoon

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have redeveloped in
southeast West Virginia and the Alleghany Highlands late this
morning. Convective Allowing Models continued to show a majority
of the precipitation north of I-64 west of Lexington this
afternoon and expanding into central Virginia east of Route 29.
Have adjusted the probability of precipitation for these
trends.

Also bumped up maximum temperatures for today, primarily east of
the Blue Ridge given all the sunshine.


Previous Discussion
As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday...


Overall pattern features trough in the east and ridging over
the west. Another shortwave embedded within the longwave flow
will pass across the region this afternoon. Mix of sun and
clouds today, starting the day with mostly clear skies, but will
have clouds develop throughout the day. Will be enough lift
with the passage of this wave/cold front for isolated showers in
the afternoon. Best chance for any precipitation will be across
the mountains and southern Shenandoah Valley.

Winds also breezy in advance of the front. West winds will
increase by late morning and will remain gusty into the
afternoon. Some 20mph range gusts possible in the higher
terrain.

Cooler/drier air arrives behind the front tonight with
temperatures dropping into the low 50s and upper 40s in the
mountains. Mid 50s for the lower elevations.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 430 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1). Unseasonably cool through the period.

2). Benign and largely dry weather expected through the period.

A broad and deep upper low anchored over eastern Canada will
only drift very slowly eastward through this period. This will
be the main player in the weather across the eastern U.S.
providing an unseasonably cool and dry northerly flow into the
region through the period. While a few light rain showers remain
possible across mainly the mountains of West Virginia, the
chance for showers even there will diminish as the trough axis
shifts east of the region. Variable mostly daytime low/mid
clouds from steep lapse rates given strong late May/early June
insolation and unseasonably cold air aloft on the order of +6C
on Thursday will diminish going into Friday as temperatures
aloft begin to warm as the upper trough shifts further east.

With 850mb temperatures Thursday in the single digits roughly in
the +5C to +8C range, below normal temperatures will continue,
especially at night. Thursday promises to be the coldest morning
of the week with lows in the upper 30s possible at locations
such as Burkes Garden and Lewisburg and near 40 at Blacksburg
and other similar locations along/west of the Blue Ridge. Most
areas, however, will see lows in the 40s early Thursday. Daytime
temperatures will warm into the 60s/70s west and mostly 70s
east Thursday and Friday. These minimum temperatures are roughly
10-15 degrees below normal and the maximum temperatures are
around 5-10 degrees below normal for late May/early June.

/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/
- Moderate Confidence in Temperatures,
- High Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities,
- Moderate to High Confidence in Wind Direction and Speed,
- No Thunderstorms Expected Through This Period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 445 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1). Benign weather continues through Saturday.

2). Unsettled weather conditions begin to creep into the area
early next week, beginning Sunday in the west.

3). Temperatures slowly return to more normal levels for early
June.

The quiet pattern of late week will continue into the first half
of the weekend as the large upper low over the northeastern
U.S./eastern Canada slowly drifts east. In its wake, the upper
flow will trend more zonal. This will allow low-level moisture
to slowly increase and disturbances from the Midwest to move in
our direction.

The models continue to slow down the arrival time of any
rainfall next week. It now appears that it will be at least
Sunday afternoon before rain chances are high enough to warrant
a 15% or greater pop. The threat for rain will increase Monday
through Tuesday. Rainfall amounts are expected to be light at
this point and no severe weather is anticipated at this point.
Neither SPC nor WPC have highlighted any threats over the region
for the period at this time.

As 850mb temperatures creep back to more normal levels for this
time of year, namely +12C to +15C by next week, look for
temperatures to recover from the late week/early weekend chill.
Maximum temperatures will warm back into the 70s west and 80s
east by Sunday with low temperatures rising from the 40s Friday
to the 50s and even 60s in urban areas by Sunday and Monday.

/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/
- Moderate to High Confidence in Temperatures,
- Moderate Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities,
- Moderate Confidence in Wind Direction and Speed,
- Low Confidence in Thunderstorm Potential.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 620 AM EDT Tuesday...

Mostly VFR throughout the valid TAF period.

Some patchy valley fog still remains this morning, but will
dissipate by 13z. LWB in particular will contend with fog.

Otherwise VFR with scattered clouds through late morning.
Another disturbance may bring a few shower/storms toward BLF/LWB
this afternoon but coverage is too low overall to have in the
tafs.

The wind backs to the west ahead of the wave/front today with
some gustiness to 20 kts possible, then shifts to the northwest
behind the front tonight. Possible fog development again tonight
at LWB.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR much of the week, aside from potential fog at LWB/BCB early
in the mornings. Storms may bring sub-VFR Sunday afternoon but
low confidence.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/BMG
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...BMG