-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
337
FXUS61 KRNK 302335
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
735 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Great Lakes will gradually track across the
Mid Atlantic region tonight through Saturday then offshore by
Sunday. Dry weather with unseasonably cool temperatures will
continue into the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms return to the
region for the beginning of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 735 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

   - Tranquil weather continues

No significant changes made to the forecast for this evening
update. A push of drier air over the southern Shenandoah Valley
is helping to keep clearer skies in that area, but expecting
skies to clear through the overnight. Friday morning will see
lows around 10 degrees below normal, with the typical cold
spots, like Burkes Garden and parts of western Greenbrier
County, reaching the upper 30s. Consider taking steps to protect
sensitive plants.

Previous discussion below...

As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

500MB heights rise on Friday with upper ridging over the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys. At the surface, high pressure centered
over the Western Great Lakes will track southeast and will be
centered over Lake Erie by Friday morning. Large diurnal range
between minimum temperatures tonight and highs on Friday due to
dry air mass. Lows tonight will be around 10 degrees below
normal.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1: Quiet and cool conditions this weekend

2: Showers and storms return Sunday

Surface high pressure over the east coast will maintain the recent
calmer weather pattern through most of the weekend. As that feature
slides off the Atlantic coast overnight Saturday into Sunday, a
stark upper ridging pattern will become increasingly zonal on
Sunday. This will give way to a small embedded shortwave to move up
from the KY and TN valleys into the OH River Valley. The shortwave
will interact with southeasterly return flow resulting from a
surface high off the Carolinas. The available moisture and forcing
from a shortwave will result in the first widespread rain event in
almost a week. Without much other support tough, not expecting these
storms to develop into severe thunderstorms at this juncture.
Scattered thunder will definitely be on the table.

Temperatures will be rather cool for the first week of June.
Overnight temps will be in the 40s and 50s, and daytime highs will
be in the 70s and low 80s. The southeasterly fetch of the southern
Atlantic will temper these cool conditions a bit, but it won`t feel
quite "summery" this weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

1: Unsettled pattern will lead to diurnal shower chances

2: Late week front will keep rain in the forecast

Timing and impact details of next week`s weather are fairly
uncertain. A broad high remains to our east, which will work to
advect in moisture higher temperatures, but the weak pressure
gradient indicates that the effect of this feature will be minimal
in changing our weather pattern a great deal. With largely zonal mid-
level flow, a few embedded shortwaves will pass through, with low
confidence of their timing. In general, we can expect the diurnal
showers and storms common for this time of year.

The next well-defined feature that could see a definitive change in
our current pattern is a late week front co-located with a strong
cut-off low. This would bring a round of storms and showers to
almost the entire forecast area, but again, timing solutions from
model guidance are disparate. Anytime on Thursday or Friday would be
the current timeframe for that system.

Temperatures will warm back up a bit next week, and should be around
normal for early June.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 725 PM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period, ending at 00Z.
Mostly mid level cumulus clouds observed over the area this
evening, expecting cloud cover to dissipate overnight. Skies
will remain mostly clear through much of Friday, though some
high clouds will start to work into the area from the west and
southwest late Friday afternoon and evening.

Wind gusts will continue to decrease through the evening, winds
becoming light through the overnight and into Friday, turning
more northerly and northeasterly by the Friday afternoon.

Some patchy fog may develop over the river valleys as
temperatures drop early Friday morning, and will impact KLWB,
possibly KBCB, for a few hours during the morning, but will
dissipate after sunrise. Confidence is not high enough to
include in the KBCB TAF at this time.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR conditions continue through the beginning of the weekend,
aside from potential fog at LWB/BCB early in the mornings.

Storms may bring periods of sub-VFR conditions Sunday afternoon
through Tuesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/AS
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...AMS/AS